I don't care who the Head Coach is I don't care who the Offensive Coordinator is The narrative that a Justin Herbert led offense will now be "run-heavy" is one I'm not buying If anything, I'm buying Justin Herbert
@P2WFantasy Michigan man here. Jim Harbaugh is not going to destroy Justin Herbert. Jim Harbaugh is a great coach. Great coaches play to their team’s strengths. Justin Herbert is a strength of the Chargers.
@P2WFantasy @DynastyXFactor I do think him being a better real life QB vs Fantasy QB is very much in the range of outcomes though
@DaWiz_FFB @DynastyXFactor Hasn't he been a pretty good fantasy QB?
His first 2 seasons he definitely was but the last 2 you could argue he's been a bit overvalued. His whole career he's been such a high volume ATT QB which has driven his fantasy production and if we see that come down I definitely have at least some concerns. Justin Herbert ranks looking at the last 2 years as the most recent sample: 🔹Total ATT: 1,155 (3rd) 🔹ATT/G: 38.5 (1st) 🔹FP/G: 17.7 (10th) Top 5 QBs in ATT/G + (FP/G), 2022 - 2023 1. Justin Herbert: 38.5 ATT/G (17.7 FP/G) 2. Kirk Cousins: 38.2 ATT/G (18.4 FP/G) 3. Patrick Mahomes: 37.7 ATT/G (21.9 FP/G) 4. Joe Burrow: 36.1 ATT/G (19.3 FP/G) 5. Jared Goff: 35.1 ATT/G (17.4 FP/G) 📍 He's been closer to Jared Goff rather than the Elite tier of QBs.
IMO, you’d really have to see his TD % get back to 2021 levels. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the 550-575 range for Total Attempts this coming year. In that scenario, he’d have to get to about 32 TDs which he did in his first 2 years but he averaged 634 Total ATT those first 2 years. Their receiving corps (pre-draft) is worse off than it was then as well. Unless we see a big uptick in either his rushing usage or he’s able to get that TD % back up, think he’s closer to QB10 than QB5. I do think he’ll be more efficient with Harbaugh from a TD/INT standpoint but it will just be really interesting to see how much of that translates to legit fantasy production especially at his current relative cost. Cheers man 🤝
IMO, you’d really have to see his TD % get back to 2021 levels. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the 550-575 range for Total Attempts this coming year. In that scenario, he’d have to get to about 32 TDs which he did in his first 2 years but he averaged 634 Total ATT those first 2 years. Their receiving corps (pre-draft) is worse off than it was then as well. Unless we see a big uptick in either his rushing usage or he’s able to get that TD % back up, think he’s closer to QB10 than QB5. I do think he’ll be more efficient with Harbaugh from a TD/INT standpoint but it will just be really interesting to see how much of that translates to legit fantasy production especially at his current relative cost. Cheers man 🤝