Cornwall Insight @CornwallInsight

Last chance to save 20% off CI Live 2026 tickets! Our super early bird discount ends tomorrow, so there is just one day left to secure your place with 20% off standard ticket prices. CI Live is back for its second year at Glaziers Hall, London on 4 November. More than 250 professionals joined us last year for a full day of high-level debate, market-leading insight and networking, and at CI Live 2026 we will get into the harder questions facing the sector around the GB energy transition. Use code SUPEREARLY20 at checkout to save 20% before 4 June 2026. Look out for some exciting speaker and agenda announcements in the coming weeks. Reserve your place and super early bird rate: web-eur.cvent.com/event/5672b475…

The UK REGO market is under pressure from multiple directions. Renewable generation capacity, ongoing market reform proposals and REGO pricing trends all shape how renewable generators understand and realise value from their assets. On Tuesday 23 June at 10:00 AM, Cornwall Insight and Renewable Exchange are co-hosting a free webinar exploring recent REGO pricing movements, PPA market commentary and the impact of wider policy developments, including the Contracts for Difference scheme, on future REGO price trajectory. Don't miss this opportunity to stay informed and register today: cornwall-insight.com/events-webinar…

In case you missed it, our recent blog by Jacob Briggs explores why business electricity and gas costs continue to rise across every part of the bill, from the impact of geopolitical events on commodity prices to rising network charges and recent policy developments. With our free webinar taking place next week on Wednesday 3 June at 10:00am, there is still time to secure your place and hear from our experts on the near-term impacts of recent wholesale market shocks, what is driving sustained cost pressures, the long-term outlook for business energy costs, and see a live demonstration of our new digital forecasting platform. Read the Blog: cornwall-insight.com/insight-articl… Register for the Webinar: cornwall-insight.com/events-webinar…

Bills are confirmed to be going up in July, not good news for consumers, but the more interesting question is what comes next. Tom Goswell, our Energy Supply Lead, was on @SkyNews this morning breaking down the @ofgem announcement, what to expect this winter, and why this moment is different to the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Ofgem has confirmed that the July price cap will rise by 13% to £1,862 a year for a typical dual‑fuel household, reflecting higher wholesale costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East. While this increase is unwelcome for billpayers, it comes at a point in the year when energy use is generally lower due to warmer weather. The more significant concern may be what lies ahead. Our current forecast for October indicates a further 2% rise on July’s cap, coinciding with falling temperatures and increasing demand. We are still only days into the three‑month period Ofgem uses to assess the wholesale part of the October cap, so things can, and likely will, change. That said, even if the conflict were to end tomorrow, it would be optimistic to expect prices to return rapidly to pre‑conflict levels. Damage to infrastructure, ongoing supply chain disruption and reduced market confidence are likely to take time to resolve, meaning the impact on bills could carry on longer than many expect. Read the full release here: cornwall-insight.com/press-releases…

Ireland and Northern Ireland both set a target of 80% renewable electricity by 2030, both are behind schedule. With conflict in the Middle East keeping energy security at the top of the agenda, the gap between ambition and delivery on the island of Ireland has real consequences, for households, businesses and the long-term cost of power across the SEM. Our latest blog looks at exactly where the transition stands right now: generation, demand, storage and interconnection. Download here: cornwall-insight.com/insight-articl… If you want to go deeper, we're hosting a free webinar on the progress of the SEM renewable transition on 28th May – register here: cornwall-insight.com/events-webinar…

Just over a week to go until our free webinar: Rising Costs, Shifting Risks: Understanding the Outlook for Business Energy Prices, on Wednesday 3 June at 10:00am. If your organisation is grappling with rising energy costs and increasing complexity across wholesale markets, network charges and policy costs, this is a session not to miss. Our experts will cover the latest forecast trends, upcoming key policy developments and a live demonstration of our new digital forecasting platform, with a Q&A session at the end. Don't miss the opportunity to hear from our energy experts and gain practical insight to support your planning and decision-making. Secure your place today: cornwall-insight.com/events-webinar…

Consumer-led flexibility is evolving fast and the opportunities for electricity customers are growing. Our latest blog sets out how electricity customers, from households to large businesses, can engage with flexibility markets today. It covers the shift from implicit flexibility through time-of-use tariffs to direct participation in system flexibility services, new market roles like the Virtual Lead Party, and why regulators and government bodies have signalled that demand-side flexibility must grow significantly to meet 2030 and net-zero targets. We have also launched a new course, delivered by our subject matter experts – Understanding Consumer-Led Flexibility Opportunities – for those looking to understand the full picture and the routes to market to participate in flexibility services. Read the blog: cornwall-insight.com/insight-articl…

CI Live is back, and we're returning to London on 4 November 2026 with some big news: Evolve Energy will be joining us as headline sponsor, extending a partnership that started at our first Annual Conference last year. Evolve were a founding sponsor of CI Live 2025, where 250 people from across the sector spent a full day in conversation about the pressures facing Great Britain's energy system. That they're committing to CI Live for both 2026 and 2027 says something about what that day delivered. CI Live 2026 takes place at Glaziers Hall and will get into the harder questions facing the sector, how to push towards ambitious policy goals like Clean Power 2030 without losing sight of what it costs the people paying the bills. Tickets are on sale now. Use code SUPEREARLY20 at checkout to save 20% before 4 June 2026: cornwall-insight.com/events-webinar… Read the full announcement here: cornwall-insight.com/insight-articl…

The article was referring to our quote which said - "For those customers on the price cap, the April to June price is now set, and therefore there should be no immediate impact on bills." We were saying bills wouldn't be going up over the three months from March, because the April cap was already set. When quoted on the July price cap we made no such claim - saying: "Looking ahead, the cap is calculated using an average wholesale price over three months, and we are only at the very start of the July to September assessment period, so the long-term impact will depend on how long gas prices stay elevated and how long this period of volatility remains.

Our final price cap forecast for July to September 2026 predicts the cap will rise by £209 to £1,850 a year for a typical household. That’s around a 13% rise from the current cap. ❓ Why are prices going up? The main driver for the increase in our forecast is rising wholesale prices, which climbed sharply in February and March after US and Israeli missile strikes on Iran, and the subsequent retaliatory attacks, saw damage to Gulf energy infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route for around 20% of global oil and gas. A temporary ceasefire brought some calm to markets, but prices remained elevated throughout the observation window. ❓ What about prices heading into the winter? While households will be understandably frustrated by a rise during the summer, the impact will be reduced as household energy usage typical falls during the hotter months. The bigger concern is October, when demand picks up again and current forecasts point to a similar cap level as July. While the October cap will depend on how the Middle East conflict unfolds, even if the conflict were to end tomorrow, the physical damage to infrastructure, and lingering effect of disrupted supply, means a fall back to April’s price cap levels in the autumn looks unlikely. ❓ What is a "typical household" and how might this be changing? To give people an idea of what an average household may be paying under the price cap @ofgem has devised Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs) for gas and electricity. Ofgem is consulting on a change to its TDCVs, to reflect the fact that average household energy use has fallen. Cornwall Insight has therefore published two forecasts. If Ofgem adopts the lower consumption figures, the headline “average bill” could appear to rise by less - to £1,667. However, as the cap controls unit rates and standing charges, rather than the total bill itself, what households actually pay will depend on how much energy they use and will not be impacted by Ofgem’s “average bill” figure. Read the full release here: cornwall-insight.com/press-releases…

Energy bills are one of the biggest costs your board can't ignore right now, and on-site generation could be a way to achieve significant energy cost savings. Policy charges and stubbornly high wholesale costs are rewriting the economics of on-site solar and battery storage faster than most finance teams have had time to model. We've pulled together 10 business cases for going on-site, plus the actual numbers on what a high-energy business could realistically save and earn. The data is available to request directly through the blog. Read the full blog here: cornwall-insight.com/insight-articl… Want the broader picture on where business energy prices are heading? We're running a free webinar on exactly that, register here: cornwall-insight.com/events-webinar…

Business energy costs are becoming increasingly complex to navigate. With wholesale market volatility driven by global events, alongside rising network charges and evolving policy costs, organisations are facing growing challenges when it comes to planning and budgeting with confidence. Join us for our free webinar ’Rising Costs, Shifting Risks: Understanding the Outlook for Business Energy Prices’, on Wednesday 3 June at 10:00am. The session will include: - How recent wholesale market shocks are shaping near-term business energy costs - The drivers behind sustained cost pressures beyond wholesale prices, including network charges and policy costs - What upcoming policy developments could mean for your organisation’s energy strategy - A live demonstration of our new digital forecasting platform Register your place today to ensure your organisation has the insight it needs to manage energy costs with confidence: cornwall-insight.com/events-webinar…

Our Head of Training Ed Reed joined @BusinessGreen and @SchneiderElec o dig into how businesses can build clean energy strategies in what is, frankly, one of the most complicated environments companies have had to navigate on energy costs. Energy bills go well beyond the headline wholesale prices, as network charges, carbon reporting obligations, and procurement decisions are all adding up for businesses, download the webinar here: businessgreen.com/sponsored/4529… If you’re interested in hearing more from Cornwall Insight, we're hosting our own webinar on 3 June looking at the outlook for business energy prices: from wholesale market shocks and incoming policy changes to what it all means for planning and budgeting. Register for the webinar here: cornwall-insight.com/events-webinar…

If E.ON's acquisition of OVO Energy gets the green light, Britain's household energy market will look quite different. We’ve crunched the numbers to show what that could look like: 🔷 How would market share change? Our Domestic Market Share Survey puts the combined E.ON/OVO entity at around 25% of the market, which would make it the second largest domestic supplier in Great Britain, just behind Octopus at 26% - it’s very tight at the top of the market. 🔷 What share would the ‘Big Five’ control? Six energy companies currently hold over 90% of the household energy market, this will fall to five if the deal completes, with the top three together accounting for close to three quarters of all supply. 🔷 Why do market share figures differ? You might have seen different figures to ours on the E.ON/OVO deal. There's a reason for that. Domestic market share can be measured in different ways. Cornwall Insight measures market share by the total number of electricity and gas accounts a supplier has on live supply, this means dual fuel households who receive both gas and electricity are counted as two accounts. By contrast, much of the coverage is using customer accounts, here a dual fuel customer is only counted once, regardless of how many fuels are supplied. Supplier rankings may differ depending on the metric being used. 🔷 Energy accounts or customer accounts - which matters more? Neither approach is wrong, however, energy accounts are generally considered a more meaningful measure of domestic supplier scale. because they better reflect the number of supply points being served and the overall size of a supplier’s retail portfolio. 🔷 Where can I keep up to date with the energy supply market? If you want to stay across how the supply market is shifting, our Energy Supply intelligence service has you covered, from proprietary market share data to pricing analysis and financial information – find out more and book a demo: cornwall-insight.com/products/energ…

Is the island of Ireland's energy transition on track, and what does it mean for future prices and revenues? With geopolitical tensions disrupting global commodity markets and the Single Electricity Market (SEM) reliant on imported fossil fuels, uncertainty around future energy prices is growing. Against this backdrop, the strategic importance of indigenous renewable energy is coming into sharper focus and the drive to accelerate renewable deployment is gaining momentum. Join our free webinar on Thursday 28 May at 11:00am, where our independent experts will explore: - Current status: The critical role of grid development and system flexibility in enabling progress towards our 2030 renewable energy targets - Where prices are going: The long-term direction of SEM wholesale electricity prices - Key drivers: Gas prices, demand growth and future generation build-out - As well as an introduction to our enhanced SEM Power Market Forecast and SEM Flexibility Power Market Forecast Don't miss this opportunity to hear directly from our experts and put your questions to the team. Register Today: cornwall-insight.com/events-and-web…

"Why is gas setting the price of electricity?" has gone from a niche industry debate to a question people are genuinely asking around kitchen tables, and with good reason. Since gas prices spiked following the conflict in the Middle East, the pressure on electricity bills has been hard to ignore. The government has now put forward plans which aim to reduce how much gas can pull the whole market up with it. Our analyst Alex Livingston has taken a closer look at the policies: how they are designed to work, and where the challenges are likely to be. 🔷 Read the blog here: cornwall-insight.com/thought-leader… For deeper analysis, Industry Essentials customers can access 'State versus Market: A Turning Point in GB Energy Policy' on CATALYST, examining the implications of this and Reformed National Pricing: catalyst.cornwall-insight.com/energy-spectru… Not yet a customer? A 14-day free trial gets you access to this piece and more, plus daily market updates: solutions.cornwall-insight.com/industry-essen…

Today the Government announced a package of measures aimed at reforming the UK’s energy system. These include updates to market reforms under the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) and breaking the link between gas and electricity prices: gov.uk/government/new… KEY ANNOUNCEMENTS ON DELINKING GAS AND ELECTRICITY MARKETS: 🔷 Introduction of a Wholesale Contract for Difference: A voluntary long-term fixed-price contract for existing non-Contract for Difference (CfD) renewable generators. This will be introduced later this year, with an allocation process intended to be run in 2027. Further details and the consultation are expected this year. Renewables Obligation (RO) generators would likely continue to receive top-up support, but would have their wholesale revenue fixed. 🔷 Increasing the Electricity Generators Levy (EGL) from 45% to 55% The Government will use the additional tax on excess profits of renewable generators during periods of high gas prices to support businesses and households with high energy costs. The Government hopes this will act as an incentive for eligible generators to move onto a Wholesale Contract for Difference. TODAY’S ANNOUNCEMENTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDE‑RANGING IMPACTS IN THE MARKET, THESE INCLUDE: 🔷 Upheaval in the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) market: ~35GW of renewable capacity is under a PPA. Any Wholesale Contract for Difference would need to beat the ~80-90% wholesale pass-through rates seen in these to incentivise generator uptake. Depending on contract details, this could see many PPAs being renegotiated. 🔷 More stability, but potentially limited cost reduction for end consumers: The need to price Wholesale Contract for Differences in line with PPA pricing could limit the energy cost reductions seen by the consumer. Additionally, Wholesale Contract for Differences could bring slightly higher balancing costs from curtailed RO generators, due to higher recoverable revenue 🔷 A route for repowering? – If available for repowering sites, a Wholesale Contract for Difference would present a good method of securing long-term income without needing to compete against new build projects in the normal CfD process, which will also help to utilise existing grid infrastructure. Look out for our upcoming post on the latest REMA announcements from the Government. If you are a customer, more analysis on today’s announcements will be published on CATALYST over the next few days: catalyst.cornwall-insight.com/home Not a customer? Our daily energy bulletins and weekly energy analysis are both included with our Industry Essentials service - sign-up to our FREE 14-day trial: solutions.cornwall-insight.com/industry-essen…