Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

Then there is my rather steep fee... Joined February 2023

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Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

3 months ago

@DadInvest @W2Freedom five is a nightmare

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Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

9 months ago

@daddycapitalx @ActAccordingly On earnings call, they just said the EV/EBITDA multiple was 20x. Looks like @ActAccordingly nailed it. No idea why anyone would pay that multiple, though.

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Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

a year ago

@Szew_invest Is that growth in KZT? It's depreciating versus the USD, so there's a likely headwind there. And the 10y yield there has spiked to 15%. I like it, but it's not a lay up

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Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

a year ago

@zain_hoda That's exactly the RAG model that Perplexity and some of the new finance-related LLMs. You're not using google, but you're using the same "find text that is about roughly the same thing as the question" model to narrow down the results.

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Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

a year ago

What exactly is the plan here?

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Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

a year ago

They no longer have the exchange. Management is completely different that when @IcebergResear went after their parentco, but still seems opaque.

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Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

a year ago

Diginix $DGNX priced its IPO at $4.10 and it's already trading at $38. Sketchy. Company sold 2.5m shares at IPO. Rhino Ventures investors are allowed to sell their entire 3m shares. Hopefully they didn't dump them all within the first day!

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Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

2 years ago

@TechMoat It had industry-leading ROIC back when it was Ctrip. Those profits got eaten away. Chinese competition is absolutely ruthless, and I struggle to see how they’ll prevent it from happening again.

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Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

2 years ago

@spectercapital made these exact points when the news hit x.com/spectercapital…

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Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

2 years ago

Switching over to the SPAC sponsors, Black Spade's last deal results in $VFS. They valued it at $23bn. It traded below $10bn 8 months after the merger, and hasn't surpassed it since. Not a great steward of capital.

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Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

2 years ago

Of course, for a low-disclosure SPAC and spinoff, you need to trust management. $BSII

Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

2 years ago

$BSII signed a merger agreement with World Media and Entertainment Universal Inc (WME). There are minimal details about the business in the filings so far. It was formed in 2023 to focus on a media platform. It started with $182m of capital. It owns two periodical sites.

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Conjectural Capital @ConjecturalCap

2 years ago

It had a $20.8m runrate in 24Q2, with annualized growth of 44%. The operating margin was likely ~20% eyeballing the prior disclosure. That gives us $4m EBIT. WME equity was priced at $488m. That EV/EBIT multiple is over 100x.