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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

Trading. AI. Building AlphaPair. Collaborating with @pear_protocol. alphapair.coinnotes.io Joined September 2022
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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

3 days ago

You would think nothing of gold consolidating for a decade before its next move up. This technology is still fundamentally novel and untested and is now pricing in new risks (AI, quantum, etc). If it comes out the other side battle tested, it will rerate higher. In a world of agents, how can you not believe in smart contracts? I say all this as someone who has been bearish eth for ages and expect it to go under $1k, and also agrees with the potential multi-year bear market thesis for crypto.

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TradeButWhy @tradebutwhy

4 days ago

this ethereum chart on the left here is the biggest thing that spooks me from trying to punt bottoms or accumulate below $60k btc because if it does break down towards $1000 it big picture just looks like it'll drift into a low vol boring sideways grind for many more years, like

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

3 days ago

$PEPE Looking for .033 then back to waiting patiently for accumulation ranges to form.

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

5 days ago

longed some pepe for a bounce, I dont think btc just slices through the lows without squeezing shorts first

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

4 months ago

Most people have predicted this Bitcoin bear market would be shallower and shorter than average: we now have passive institutional flows and stronger hands buying. I want the speculate on an alternative: this bear market could be considerably worse. Here's why. Why does anyone buy Bitcoin? I'm not talking about the OGs who are now unloading into Wall Street, the True Believers. I'm talking about everyone who has bought it since, say, 2017. It's the exponential growth, stupid. They don't want to hold stocks for a 'safe' 7% a year. They need to escape the permanent underclass, or wage slavery, or whatever the latest description is, and they need it now. For that promise, buyers in this market have been willing to endure 70-80% drawdowns every 4 years. But that promise is fading. 🔸 Each cycle offers worse returns than the last. 🔸 As Bitcoin inevitably trades deep into 'last cycle' prices for the first time, even longer term holders' conviction will be challenged as it never was before. 🔸 It is a well known dynamic that people are more willing to hold as long as they are in profit. In previous cycles, all n-1 cycle buyers remained in profit. This time they will not. That will unlock new sellers. 🔸 Volatility and easy leverage in other markets offer alternative routes to the same end, making the case for new buyers less straightforward. 🔸 Generally, everyone now knows about Bitcoin and anyone who wants to buy Bitcoin now has a way to. The next marginal buyer will be much harder to find. All of this is to say nothing of the possibility of a wider economic downturn. My concerns are based purely on Bitcoin's mythology, narrative appeal, and price dynamics. Ultimately, I still intend to buy BTC at and below the 200 week SMA. However, I think there is a significant likelihood that we could be given opportunities to buy materially lower than that, and that this bear market could last, for example, 3 years instead of 1.

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

5 days ago

$ZEC If it prints there it will trade there. That wick is likely getting filled over the next few weeks.

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

5 days ago

@Evan_ss6 Far too bullish on eth

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

5 days ago

longed some pepe for a bounce, I dont think btc just slices through the lows without squeezing shorts first

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

5 days ago

@0xaporia nobody has a clue and they all end up losing to TA bros anyway x.com/CoinNotes_io/s…

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

4 months ago

One thing I learned last cycle is that trying to time macro inflection points in your trades is something very few people can do effectively. I am not one of them. Trading the chart is simpler and more reliable. I don't know why the chart looks like it does, and I don't need to.

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

5 days ago

@game_for_one buy low sell high

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

5 days ago

@ZoomerOracle do you know a single person using anything in crypto other than hype?

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

5 days ago

It’s time to pay attention. These moments of extreme panic only come once every few years. Give me a dirty liquidation cascade on btc like the olden days and I’ll slurp.

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

5 days ago

I realise it seems redacted to still be talking about buying ZEC after this news, and maybe it is.

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

5 days ago

The market will be cautious on BTC as long as its decentralisation is perceived as an obstacle to adapting to emerging technological threats (AI/quantum). Protocols that are more centrally maintained are actually better positioned. ETH + ZEC still look like good bets for next cycle (ZEC provisional, depends if it got pwned). But first lower.

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

a week ago

300 week sma

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

5 months ago

i just sold the last of my spot BTC from my 20k buys. up or down, it was a good run. my next buys will be at the 300 week sma, whether that's 50k or 150k. I'll stick around to keep me engaged and farm airdrops, but feels like the end of a journey. until the next.

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

6 days ago

As far as I'm concerned this ZEC hack is an opportunity. If I can buy a big bag <$100 I'll be very happy. Yeah, technology can be hacked. AI is going to find many vulnerabilities. The fact that the team is actively auditing their tech and found a vulnerability is a good thing.

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

6 days ago

@SSnuffalupagus it's probably more like "oh no technology can be hacked" kinda deal

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

6 days ago

@Greed2Fear I think we are some way away from 'unprecedented', but you can never rule it out.

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

6 days ago

"The Times 03/Jan/2028 Congress on brink of second bailout for tech giants." Time is a flat circle. We will be back.

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

6 days ago

50k in 2026 is 20k in 2022.

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CoinNotes @CoinNotes_io

6 days ago

Saylor did the market an enormous favour. The next best thing he could have done is sell until he owns a smaller proportion of the supply, like 2%. Maybe we'll get lucky enough to see that happen.

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