Ryan Delany @CoffeeNinjaRyan
• Coffee - know it, trade it, drink it • Corps - proud USMC veteran, run towards the challenge, warrior-scholar mindset • Core - family, veteran outreach coffeetradingacademy.com Joined March 2021-
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Thailand #sugarcane concerns escalating on widespread heatwave reports. Max temp maps at the upper limit of the range (110°F/43°C) & temp anomaly relatively high in 1-7 day forecast. That said, Thailand still in crush season (final stages), which helps crops deal w/ dryness/heat.
☕Don't miss out on our Coffee Trader's Course this May! ☕ Enhance your coffee trading skills and join us for an immersive learning experience. Limited spots available! Register here: coffeetradingacademy.com/event-details
Thailand 23/24 #sugar production seen at 8.7m tons by the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board. Figure makes for a hefty -21.6% reduction vs prior season due to dry weather, but it's a decent improvement vs Feb forecast of 7.5m. 23/24 Thai sugarcane -12.4% YoY at 82.2m tons total.
High prices pushed overall grind figures lower on the yr but, Q1 24 shows seasonal QoQ growth w/ QoQ grind data up across the board (NCA +9.3%, ECA +4.7%, CAA +4.9%, total +5.5%). YoY NCA was only region that increased: NCA up 3.7% , while ECA -2.2%, CAA -0.2%, total -0.6%.
Brazil 23/24 season concluded (Apr 1st) with record #sugarcane crush of 654.4m tons (+19.3% YoY) in the Center South region, which represents roughtly ~90% of total BR output. Implies total crush close to 725m tons, a hefty 8.6% increase vs previous record of 677m tons in 15/16.
*New Podcast: Robusta Coffee Market, Vietnam Coffee and Crop Tours with Alex Gruber* Topics include the Vietnam Differentials, his methodology for crop forecasts, our new joint venture, and his expectations for the market. on.soundcloud.com/D1vyaMsZdmWk4r…
*#Coffee Trader's Course May 6th – 10th * Learn the intricacies of #Coffeetrading, from mastering commodities to understanding market analysis and risk management strategies. 📈☕ Secure your spot now (Dad-jokes included😉) Register here: coffeetradingacademy.com/event-details/
Global #coffee exports are the highest in recent years so far in the 23/24 season, per ICO data. Cumulative figure (1st 5 months of 23/24) at 56.3m bags, +11.4% higher than a year ago, as above typical exports repeated for a 4th consecutive month in Feb (11.3m bags, +6.8% YoY).
Japan #coffee stocks increased by +31.1k bags (+1.3% MoM) in Feb to 2.44m bags total, led by Brazil & Vietnam coffees. Monthly increase was not a surprise, since somewhat aligned with seasonality in direction and magnitude. Ultimately, JCA stocks still nearing multi-year lows.
#Coffee Trader's Course May 6 to 10 * Learn the intricacies of #Coffeetrading, from understanding commodities to mastering market analysis and risk management strategies. 📈☕ Secure your spot now (Dad-jokes included😉) Register on our site at coffeetradingacademy.com/event-details/
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Go Ye Coffee Co @GoYeCoffeeCo
27 Followers 106 Following Bringing you quality coffee, fresh roasted to enjoy in every aspect of your life. Once you place an order, we will roast it, package it, and send it to you.@CoffeeNinjaRyan It sure seemed as some one being stoped this morning…. Size, timing and speed - everything was odd
@CoffeeNinjaRyan I’m at the London Coffee Festival and the Green Coffee traders are on their phones. Looking very concerned. These prices are once again heading to insanity. Big correction later this year but not before pain
@CoffeeNinjaRyan Maybe the pendings will slow down? I find this rally interesting as trade been increasing short but price fails to breakdown.
@CoffeeNinjaRyan Arabica wow it failed up here 2 months ago trade added to short but price still going up? Why?
@CoffeeNinjaRyan The Brazilians pending are likely the same ones that failed yesterday and are being appealed for regrading. Too coincidental that the numbers failed are the same to show up again. Plot thickens! Have a great Ninja-Turkey Day to you and your family!
@CoffeeNinjaRyan Last year re certs dumped the market.
@CoffeeNinjaRyan Tks! This helped me stride 1 step closer to know Futures.
@CoffeeNinjaRyan Hi, I am a coffee farmer from Brazil.
@F4tailhook Story of the last 6 months has been industry waking up to the fact that the stocks don’t matter and the market is broken
@davep_f1 @CoffeeNinjaRyan Unfortunately, Ryan for BR Coffee Producers, the damage is already done in some major areas in the Triangulo Mineiro Once blooming starts you need moisture and a strong rain 15 days later the outcome in BR when flowering occurs in August, is not very good as history tells us
++Brazil: Coffee growers worried about the potential of the 2024 harvest. ++ The president of COOXUPÉ, the largest coffee cooperative in the world, speaks: The productivity of our crops has fallen a lot and in September, projecting a harvest for next year is irresponsible",
@CoffeeNinjaRyan How is it possible to verify guesstimate the amount of coffee to come to market in the next 2 months? We are roughly at the same stock level as this time last year.
@CoffeeNinjaRyan @ClimatePredict I'm long totally biased, but l am looking at large crop already priced into the price & any disruption to this catches the CTAs offside biggley.
@kentfunny2021 @CoffeeNinjaRyan 95% chance of el nino peaking in early 2024
@CoffeeNinjaRyan Industry is drawing conclusion to quickly in haste on what crop size will be seeing flowering only on new farms under drip irrigation they aren't even considering the farms taking up heavy purning.
@CoffeeNinjaRyan Or is it because farmers in Brazil are unwilling to part with their produce at current price because they just ain't sure about the fruit set yet ?
@CoffeeNinjaRyan For years coffee operators far and wide scratch their head and ask; why would anyone certify coffee and deliver if they can easily fetch a better price on the open market? Answer: perfect setup to launder drug money from producing countries. Hmmm.
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