Igor Bragato @BragatoIgor
Coffee Market Analyst Updates on a daily basis coffeetradingacademy.com Brasil Joined November 2021-
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#CoffeeMarket Monthly Recap - Apr 2024 #Arabica surged last month due to key tech breakout & Spec trend following, coinciding with Vietnam crop risks from drought and heat. Spec profit-taking later drove a price retracement. See key Apr events for #KC in our animation below.
Global #coffee exports follow as the highest cumulative in recent years in 23/24 season (per ICO data) after Mar data disclosed. Mar exports came out at 13m bags (+12.7% MoM, +8% YoY), marking a 5th consecutive month (out of 6 so far in 23/24) of above avg global coffee exports.
Colombia cumulative #coffee production & exports still trending higher on an YoY basis, despite small seasonal decline in Mar (prod -9.9% MoM, exp -4% MoM). 1st 6 months of the 23/24 season at 6.44m bags so far implying a bigger crop (prod ahead of same period in 22/23 & 21/22).
Thailand #sugarcane concerns escalating on widespread heatwave reports. Max temp maps at the upper limit of the range (110°F/43°C) & temp anomaly relatively high in 1-7 day forecast. That said, Thailand still in crush season (final stages), which helps crops deal w/ dryness/heat.
☕Don't miss out on our Coffee Trader's Course this May! ☕ Enhance your coffee trading skills and join us for an immersive learning experience. Limited spots available! Register here: coffeetradingacademy.com/event-details
Thailand 23/24 #sugar production seen at 8.7m tons by the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board. Figure makes for a hefty -21.6% reduction vs prior season due to dry weather, but it's a decent improvement vs Feb forecast of 7.5m. 23/24 Thai sugarcane -12.4% YoY at 82.2m tons total.
High prices pushed overall grind figures lower on the yr but, Q1 24 shows seasonal QoQ growth w/ QoQ grind data up across the board (NCA +9.3%, ECA +4.7%, CAA +4.9%, total +5.5%). YoY NCA was only region that increased: NCA up 3.7% , while ECA -2.2%, CAA -0.2%, total -0.6%.
Brazil 23/24 season concluded (Apr 1st) with record #sugarcane crush of 654.4m tons (+19.3% YoY) in the Center South region, which represents roughtly ~90% of total BR output. Implies total crush close to 725m tons, a hefty 8.6% increase vs previous record of 677m tons in 15/16.
*New Podcast: Robusta Coffee Market, Vietnam Coffee and Crop Tours with Alex Gruber* Topics include the Vietnam Differentials, his methodology for crop forecasts, our new joint venture, and his expectations for the market. on.soundcloud.com/D1vyaMsZdmWk4r…
*#Coffee Trader's Course May 6th – 10th * Learn the intricacies of #Coffeetrading, from mastering commodities to understanding market analysis and risk management strategies. 📈☕ Secure your spot now (Dad-jokes included😉) Register here: coffeetradingacademy.com/event-details/
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368 Followers 1K Following Hedge funder. 15 years of trading experience. Student of commodities 🛢️ 🌽 ⛏️🌾 weather markets and global macro. Not investment advice.#CoffeeMarket Monthly Recap - Apr 2024 #Arabica surged last month due to key tech breakout & Spec trend following, coinciding with Vietnam crop risks from drought and heat. Spec profit-taking later drove a price retracement. See key Apr events for #KC in our animation below.
Global #coffee exports follow as the highest cumulative in recent years in 23/24 season (per ICO data) after Mar data disclosed. Mar exports came out at 13m bags (+12.7% MoM, +8% YoY), marking a 5th consecutive month (out of 6 so far in 23/24) of above avg global coffee exports.
Colombia cumulative #coffee production & exports still trending higher on an YoY basis, despite small seasonal decline in Mar (prod -9.9% MoM, exp -4% MoM). 1st 6 months of the 23/24 season at 6.44m bags so far implying a bigger crop (prod ahead of same period in 22/23 & 21/22).
Thailand #sugarcane concerns escalating on widespread heatwave reports. Max temp maps at the upper limit of the range (110°F/43°C) & temp anomaly relatively high in 1-7 day forecast. That said, Thailand still in crush season (final stages), which helps crops deal w/ dryness/heat.
☕Don't miss out on our Coffee Trader's Course this May! ☕ Enhance your coffee trading skills and join us for an immersive learning experience. Limited spots available! Register here: coffeetradingacademy.com/event-details
Thailand 23/24 #sugar production seen at 8.7m tons by the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board. Figure makes for a hefty -21.6% reduction vs prior season due to dry weather, but it's a decent improvement vs Feb forecast of 7.5m. 23/24 Thai sugarcane -12.4% YoY at 82.2m tons total.
High prices pushed overall grind figures lower on the yr but, Q1 24 shows seasonal QoQ growth w/ QoQ grind data up across the board (NCA +9.3%, ECA +4.7%, CAA +4.9%, total +5.5%). YoY NCA was only region that increased: NCA up 3.7% , while ECA -2.2%, CAA -0.2%, total -0.6%.
Brazil 23/24 season concluded (Apr 1st) with record #sugarcane crush of 654.4m tons (+19.3% YoY) in the Center South region, which represents roughtly ~90% of total BR output. Implies total crush close to 725m tons, a hefty 8.6% increase vs previous record of 677m tons in 15/16.
@CoffeeNinjaRyan I’m at the London Coffee Festival and the Green Coffee traders are on their phones. Looking very concerned. These prices are once again heading to insanity. Big correction later this year but not before pain
*New Podcast: Robusta Coffee Market, Vietnam Coffee and Crop Tours with Alex Gruber* Topics include the Vietnam Differentials, his methodology for crop forecasts, our new joint venture, and his expectations for the market. on.soundcloud.com/D1vyaMsZdmWk4r…
*#Coffee Trader's Course May 6th – 10th * Learn the intricacies of #Coffeetrading, from mastering commodities to understanding market analysis and risk management strategies. 📈☕ Secure your spot now (Dad-jokes included😉) Register here: coffeetradingacademy.com/event-details/
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