Ryan Perkins Geopolitics @ChinaIndicator
Geopolitics, Economics & Technology. From Beijing. globaleconomicindicator.com Beijing Joined August 2025-
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I’ve been arguing since April the primary purpose of the Iran war was to createthe economic conditions for a financial trap indended to create leverage to force China into a Plaza Accord type arrangement. Here @BenjaminNorton responds to a WSJ article arguing economic sanctions should be used to coece China into accepting it. These economic sanctions will amplify the pressure created by the Trap caused by US actions in the Gulf of Hormuz. ceinewsletter.substack.com/p/the-harvest-…
The Wall Street Journal and US government officials want to set the same economic trap for China that they set for Japan. The US was very concerned about Japan's industrial might and technological progress in the late 1970s and '80s. Ezra Vogel's book "Japan as Number One" was a
The Wall Street Journal and US government officials want to set the same economic trap for China that they set for Japan. The US was very concerned about Japan's industrial might and technological progress in the late 1970s and '80s. Ezra Vogel's book "Japan as Number One" was a best-seller at the time. So Washington used the 1985 Plaza Accord to significantly overvalue the Japanese yen, drastically hurting the competitiveness of Japanese exports and fueling a huge asset-price bubble in Japan that popped in 1992 and led to a "lost decade" (or two) of stagnation. Japan was never again a challenge to US economic and technological hegemony. Fortunately, Chinese officials have extensively studied this period, and they will not allow the US to repeat it with them. Especially because they know very well that US intentions are nefarious.
We need a new Plaza Accord, to revalue the yuan. China's exploding trade surplus hurts everyone else, but it ignores pleas to pivot from exports to consumption. A yuan revaluation, backed w/threat of tariffs, may be the only solution. My latest: wsj.com/economy/trade/…
@OopsGuess This is what they think they will use as leverage. It won't work. ceinewsletter.substack.com/p/the-harvest-…
10/10 This is economic chemotherapy. The poison does not discriminate. Whether the trap succeeds or backfires depends on which system breaks first: China's currency defences or America's leveraged financial architecture. The autumn harvest will tell. Full analysis: ceinewsletter.substack.com/p/the-harvest-…
9/10 Bessent's Treasury twist—suppressing the long end of the yield curve—is the clearest evidence of the predicament. It is a firebreak at the first node of the chain. The US built the trap. Now it is inside it, along with its targets.
1/10 The energy market calm is not resilience. It is suppression. The latest update to the Petroyuan Trap series examines what happens when the compressed spring releases—and why China and India are at the centre of the Trap.
My latest in the Petroyuan Trap and the impending economic chemotherapy. ceinewsletter.substack.com/p/the-harvest-…
It's part of a multistage financial trap. The Petroyuam Trap. The oil prices will synchronize with the fertilizer-food price spike and create a global inflation wave. The target is emerging non-dollar payment systems. Goal: extend life of petrodollar hegemony. Read: ceinewsletter.substack.com/publish/posts/…
“If the yen were to weaken substantially, then the other currencies would follow it. We’ve seen excess volatility in the Korean won. Many people believe that the Chinese renminbi is undervalued.” - Bessent Bessent is doing three very important things at the same time: First, he's justifying his yen intervention in the name of regional stability. Secondly, he’s creating cover for the Trap and preparing the public for an economic meltdown while telling you the U.S. is not responsible. Third, but most importantly, he saying the RMB is “undervalued.” He talking up the RMB.
Here's Bessent saying on camera that the Strait will not reopen. The last 20 years of policy literature predicted the war would close the trait. This was the objrctive. Find out why: ceinewsletter.substack.com/p/the-rope-thi…
@Frank_Stones I’ve been saying since April this was always the strategy. It’s a financial trap. ceinewsletter.substack.com/p/the-rope-thi…
@ekwufinance It's a financial trap designed to exploit the vulnerabilities in China's petroyuan. A financial crisis is being engineered to crash China's offshore yuan reserves. x.com/ChinaIndicator…
In regard to Scott Bessent recent Asian Financial Crisis comments. Link in comments.
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