Using @garyblack00 projections for auto deliveries out to 2030, the auto business could be worth about $800 billion (assuming 15% net profit margins and using a P/E ratio of 15 in 2030).
@garyblack00 By 2030 the Energy part of the business could be worth about $900 billion (assuming net profit margins are 15% and using a P/E ratio of 20).
By 2030 the Energy business could be worth as much as the Auto business (assuming 10 million deliveries in 2030). If Tesla can achieve their 20 million delivery target, then the Auto business would still be worth more.
Superchargers: a solid business with great growth potential.
Autobidder: difficult to precisely model, but with a long growth runway ahead.
Distributed Inference Computing for EVs & Bots: also difficult to model, but shows some promise if massively scaled. Most of the opportunity here is with EVs - as they have more compute and more downtime. But the Bots can make up for those short comings if scaled into the hundreds of millions / billions.
Autonomous Vehicles: nutty, just nutty.
Humanoid Bots: even more nuttier
Putting it all together: If either humanoid bots or autonomous vehicles become reality, it's a game changer for Tesla (provided they can execute on their plans). If both are realized, the world changes beyond comprehension - with cheap energy, cheap transportation and unlimited labor.
It's 2030 - can you spot the car company? Again, not financial advice - please do your own research. /end
@CernBasher I would fill all red with blue. Not bullish on robo taxi due to regulatory.
@CernBasher i don't agree. you are more aggressive than tesla's target. Tesla target 20M cars and 1Twh in 2030. How optimus can produce more than these revenue combined?
@CernBasher Funny that WS go all fired up about supercharging business...
@CernBasher Great graph @CernBasher . Question: do you consider L4 required insurance, that supposedly will be part of the Tesla package somewhere in your calculations? Thanks.
Another way of putting this is that every colour that ISN'T orange on here is #opportunity... and @tesla is a collection of the world's best and brightest.. and industry is evolving around them... This perspective allows me to have some confidence in their success 🤓🧠 #TeamTesla