Knot @Bfire89

Florida Joined May 2013

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Knot @Bfire89

9 months ago

@theleftovers46 @WeathermanAAA_ Nope. This was on A2 between Auchindown and Belmont, about 30 feet above sea level.

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@D_niki_P This one is a coconut palm. Royals you can tell apart with their smooth green "crownshaft" as the stem meets the fronds and very straight trunk. But both are almost bulletproof in hurricanes! You can't go wrong.

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Knot @Bfire89

9 months ago

@iCyclone Wait, did you have a Kestrel in New Hope? Or just scouting?

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Knot @Bfire89

9 months ago

@iCyclone @PoulletFrancois Melissa’s final ranking among the strongest Atlantic landfalls may well depend on your observations, given the gap in recon. This could be your most scientifically crucial mission to date. Looking forward to seeing the data you’ve collected!

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@iCyclone Yuck. You're usually one for something meatier. Speaking of, have you been eyeing Rafael in Cuba? 😉

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@SWFLWX @Hambjorgerz @ktho641521 @AaronRigsbyOSC Sustained hurricane force winds on Mt Mitchell, which is incredible. And these trees are not adapted to high winds unlike those in Florida and along the Gulf Coast.

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@SWFLWX @TomsTechandMore @CMcKayFL Oh gotcha. Helene's weakest side was the west, which had iirc cat 1 sustained winds over water lol so you're right.

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@SWFLWX @TomsTechandMore @CMcKayFL That's what recon, SAR, radar velocities, and the surface ob in Venice suggested. Your locale may have been different.

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@SWFLWX @TomsTechandMore @CMcKayFL Makes sense. For context, vertical wind structure was arced. Max 700mb winds were to the south, max sfc winds wrapped to the west side. By the time the strong side moved ashore, it was 2h post LF and the storm had weakened. Yet thats when the highest sustained ob came in: 80kt

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@SWFLWX @TomsTechandMore @CMcKayFL Agreed that there's no chance cat 3 winds occurred on land. ~90kt max. But between 109kt on SAR, 101kt SFMR (I understand the issues this szn), 118kt 700mb winds, and 106kt WL150 dropsonde winds, it was a cat 3 ~1 hour before landfall.

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@SWFLWX @WeatherProf It looks like Helene was in the middle of the mesovort rounding process, where the boundary layer can lift and weaken the storm. It was still developing its structure and made landfall while reorganizing basically. The same thing happened with Michael, but many hours prior to LF

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@iCyclone For sure. Just wanted to add some extra info/context.

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@AndyHazelton @DSC_Wx @369Hurricane Two AF flights went right over Cuban airspace during Ian, but there's some sort of approval process necessary there I guess they haven't walked through with Oscar.

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@ContentWxGuy NHC reported 92mph gusting 107 in Venice, in the circled area

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Matt Devitt @MattDevittWX

2 years ago

I know Milton is the most recent to impact Florida, but Helene's data has been trickling in. A high water mark over 10 feet in Venice from the USGS. Significant surge and water levels were also common in Charlotte County too. Hope to get more data in the months ahead in those areas, especially from the NHC Final Report next year. @WINKNews

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@tbrite89 @ImpeachBiden31 @LimWeather Averaging SFMR and reduced FL on the last couple passes would give us 110kt. RMW was large, so w/ undersampling you get around 115kt. Some filling before landfall = your 110kt. I've noticed the NHC has just been leaning on reduced FL this season, hence 120kt.

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@tbrite89 @ImpeachBiden31 @LimWeather No doubt there. The worst I've been through was WILMA, where 75kt sustained was recorded near me. It was bad, but the tree damage was a v. solid cut below that. So I figured solid cat 2 at that location -> certainly a major @ landfall. Ofc, you have far more experience than I!

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@tbrite89 @ImpeachBiden31 @LimWeather Did you survey the coastal WMA by boat? I've been curious what it looked like on the ground. Seems to be mostly palmettos there on satellite (which hold up to cat 5s), but if you have an account I'm very interested!

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Knot @Bfire89

2 years ago

@tbrite89 @ImpeachBiden31 @LimWeather Not disagreeing w/ you by any means. Just suggesting that the tree damage there suggests cat 3 conditions were present at landfall (like you've been saying). Two miles inland implies ~1 category below MSW. Some have been saying it was 95kt, I believe that to be an overcorrection.