2Infinity @2Infinity_

a quick look at silver: Day 10 of DC3. Price has found at least a temporary bottom yesterday and, as of this post, taking a pause. The significant drop since the cycle high has pulled the RSI(5) into extremely oversold levels and opened a wide gap with the 10 dma. These extremes usually resolve by either closing the gap back up to the 10 dma, or by consolidating sideways that allows the 10 dma to close the gap. So far, price is consolidating instead of staging a quick rebound. Price is currently in no-man's land, sitting at a mid-point between the resistance level overhead (gray line) and the support zone below (in purple). The support level does look like it is starting to pull like a magnet, especially after breaking below the previous ICL/DCL. This DC does look like it may be extremely LT. There are multiple resistance levels for price to work through in order to make a higher cycle high, which would be almost a 25% price gain. Stead as she goes. #Silver

The BB crash trade would have been profitable if followed to the letter, as it is a very short term trade. I was playing it as a front month trade out of the DCL and the possibility of an extreme LT DC that would break below the ICL did not seem likely just last Wed. Without some kind of trigger event, it does look like the front month trade is toast.

a quick look at silver: Day 9 of DC3. Bears have won the tug-of-war after the bounce out of the DCL. Price has dropped below the ICL and has accelerated to the downside, widening the gap with the 10 dma. The ICL was the bottom of the flat bottom wedge and breaking below that support is significant, as the support level was also tested in the previous ICL. The next levels of support are $54 and $50. As shown in the chart, $54 is resistance in Oct and Nov last year, and $50 is the point of the final run-up to the ATH, and also a round number that many technical analysts see as support. This third DC is looking like an extremely LT DC, with the bounce out of the DCL being the cycle high. Without a change in character in the market, it does seem unlikely that silver will be able to make a higher cycle high. One exception maybe if price collapses to the 50-54 support level in very short order and causes a short squeeze that catches traders off guard. A more likely scenario is the RSI(5) embedding in oversold levels and grind lower as silver looks for a bottom. The cycle picture for silver is bearish over the short term, but price is nearing levels where the entire final run-up has been completely washed out. With many days left in this DC, patience will be the theme of the cycle. Steady as she goes. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 8 of DC3. At the time of this post, silver has touched the lower range of the support zone. To say differently, price has dropped into the support zone formed by the previous ICL/DCLs. This is now the 4th day that price has remained below the 10 dma, and the gap is widening. As price moves down, so does the 10 dma and RSI(5). There are some notable moves in silver this week, including: - a tug-of-war that is being won by bears. - the DCL very close to being breached. - RSI(5) reaching very oversold levels 8 days into the DC. This will be the 4th time this support level is being tested from above, forming a wedge pattern with a flat bottom. The flat bottom wedges tend to break to the downside once the support breaks. If support breaks, the next levels of support looks like the previous DCHs at 54, and the break out into the final run-up at 50. A bullish out look maybe a final washout, rather than another stick save at the current support levels. If the current support holds, watch for price to begin closing above the 10 dma and make a higher cycle high. Without a higher cycle high, this DC could form into an extremely LT DC. Steady as she goes. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 7 of DC3. Silver managed to form a small hammer on Friday and moved higher this morning until price ran into the 10 dma and sold off. The hammer on Friday did manage to close the RSI(5) at 30. For bulls, the first order of business is for price to begin closing above the 10 dma and turn the 10 dma upwards. Once that is accomplished, the next step would be making a higher cycle high. If this can happen, RSI(5) would begin holding above 50 and draw a more favorable picture for silver. Meanwhile, the red zone in the chart must hold as support. For bears, the wedge pattern with a flat bottom continues to test the red zone in the chart. Being patient and letting the pattern play out does look like the ICL low in March maybe tested eventually. Steady as she goes. #Silver

@Support_Defend @chdhdyeudjjd I'll post an update shortly, but the major support is the ICL at around 61.20

Check out this chart. Initial deep crash that recovers with a massive bounce, then a series of higher lows. The highs run into resistance in that red zone, but the trips lower are shorter in duration and more shallow each time. This looks like a classic flat top wedge that will eventually break out. This is just an inverted chart of silver. Sometimes it helps to see another perspective to see if you have a bias when looking at charts :) #Silver

@chdhdyeudjjd If price breaks to the down side, there aren't many support levels until $54 where there was prior resistance, or around $50 when price really started to explode higher in Nov 25. That support is still holding though.

a quick look at gold: Day 6 of DC1. Gold has some work to do. The recent ICL means the two DCs are failed daily cycles in the descending phase of the IC. This also means that the new DCL labelled as an ICL is a placeholder until some parameters are met for a new ICL. This includes a pattern of higher lows and higher highs, as well as breaking the IC trend line (in gray on chart). However, gold has more immediate issues to deal with. 4400 has been an important level since October last year when gold made an ATH at that level before pulling back. Since then, the 4400 has acted as a support level until this month. What acted as support is now flipped to become resistance that has now been tested from below and held. RSI(5) is back to 30, which is an uncomfortable level early in a new DC. For bulls, breaking back above the 4400 level is the first order of business. Further downside will make the trip to a new cycle high harder, especially if there is momentum to the downside and price nears the ICL levels at which point holding above the ICL will be more of a priority to bulls than getting back above 4400. Overall a dicey picture for gold that needs some work to get bullish again. Steady as she goes. #Gold

a quick look at silver: Day 6 of DC3. Silver started the DC with a strong bounce out of an extremely oversold RSI(5), pushing price above the 10 dma and closing above the dma for three days. Usually, this follows with a consolidation a#Silverround the 10 dma until bulls manage to gain momentum to the upside. However, this DC quickly dropped out of a bullish setup as price dropped precipitously through the 10 dma and continued to follow through today. This action has also turned the 10 dma back down and dropped the RSI(5) below 30. Although it's possible to regain the 10 dma and progress into an RT DC, it does question how strong the DCL is, considering it could not hold its gains and sold off quickly. For bulls, a sharp reversal to higher cycle highs would be a good start. For bears, the red zone represents range of prior DCLs. Silver tested this area again on Friday. Silver is loosely forming a flat bottom wedge, and this type of pattern can eventually break to the flat side. If this level of support that has held for 3 DCLs breaks lower, a new support will need to be established. Steady as she goes.

a quick look at silver: Day 6 of DC3. Silver started the DC with a strong bounce out of an extremely oversold RSI(5), pushing price above the 10 dma and closing above the dma for three days. Usually, this follows with a consolidation a#Silverround the 10 dma until bulls manage to gain momentum to the upside. However, this DC quickly dropped out of a bullish setup as price dropped precipitously through the 10 dma and continued to follow through today. This action has also turned the 10 dma back down and dropped the RSI(5) below 30. Although it's possible to regain the 10 dma and progress into an RT DC, it does question how strong the DCL is, considering it could not hold its gains and sold off quickly. For bulls, a sharp reversal to higher cycle highs would be a good start. For bears, the red zone represents range of prior DCLs. Silver tested this area again on Friday. Silver is loosely forming a flat bottom wedge, and this type of pattern can eventually break to the flat side. If this level of support that has held for 3 DCLs breaks lower, a new support will need to be established. Steady as she goes.

a quick look at silver: Day 6 of DC3. Silver started the DC with a strong bounce out of an extremely oversold RSI(5), pushing price above the 10 dma and closing above the dma for three days. Usually, this follows with a consolidation around the 10 dma until bulls manage to gain momentum to the upside. However, this DC quickly dropped out of a bullish setup as price dropped precipitously through the 10 dma and continued to follow through today. This action has also turned the 10 dma back down and dropped the RSI(5) below 30. Although it's possible to regain the 10 dma and progress into an RT DC, it does question how strong the DCL is, considering it could not hold its gains and sold off quickly. For bulls, a sharp reversal to higher cycle highs would be a good start. For bears, the red zone represents range of prior DCLs. Silver tested this area again on Friday. Silver is loosely forming a flat bottom wedge, and this type of pattern can eventually break to the flat side. If this level of support that has held for 3 DCLs breaks lower, a new support will need to be established. Steady as she goes. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 6 of DC3. Silver started the DC with a strong bounce out of an extremely oversold RSI(5), pushing price above the 10 dma and closing above the dma for three days. Usually, this follows with a consolidation around the 10 dma until bulls manage to gain momentum to the upside. However, this DC quickly dropped out of a bullish setup as price dropped precipitously through the 10 dma and continued to follow through today. This action has also turned the 10 dma back down and dropped the RSI(5) below 30. Although it's possible to regain the 10 dma and progress into an RT DC, it does question how strong the DCL is, considering it could not hold its gains and sold off quickly. For bulls, a sharp reversal to higher cycle highs would be a good start. For bears, the red zone represents range of prior DCLs. Silver tested this area again on Friday. Silver is loosely forming a flat bottom wedge, and this type of pattern can eventually break to the flat side. If this level of support that has held for 3 DCLs breaks lower, a new support will need to be established. Steady as she goes. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 6 of DC3. Silver started the DC with a strong bounce out of an extremely oversold RSI(5), pushing price above the 10 dma and closing above the dma for three days. Usually, this follows with a consolidation around the 10 dma until bulls manage to gain momentum to the upside. However, this DC quickly dropped out of a bullish setup as price dropped precipitously through the 10 dma and continued to follow through today. This action has also turned the 10 dma back down and dropped the RSI(5) below 30. Although it's possible to regain the 10 dma and progress into an RT DC, it does question how strong the DCL is, considering it could not hold its gains and sold off quickly. For bulls, a sharp reversal to higher cycle highs would be a good start. For bears, the red zone represents range of prior DCLs. Silver tested this area again on Friday. Silver is loosely forming a flat bottom wedge, and this type of pattern can eventually break to the flat side. If this level of support that has held for 3 DCLs breaks lower, a new support will need to be established. Steady as she goes. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 6 of DC3. Silver started the DC with a strong bounce out of an extremely oversold RSI(5), pushing price above the 10 dma and closing above the dma for three days. Usually, this follows with a consolidation around the 10 dma until bulls manage to gain momentum to the upside. However, this DC quickly dropped out of a bullish setup as price dropped precipitously through the 10 dma and continued to follow through today. This action has also turned the 10 dma back down and dropped the RSI(5) below 30. Although it's possible to regain the 10 dma and progress into an RT DC, it does question how strong the DCL is, considering it could not hold its gains and sold off quickly. For bulls, a sharp reversal to higher cycle highs would be a good start. For bears, the red zone represents range of prior DCLs. Silver tested this area again on Friday. Silver is loosely forming a flat bottom wedge, and this type of pattern can eventually break to the flat side. If this level of support that has held for 3 DCLs breaks lower, a new support will need to be established. Steady as she goes. #Silver

if you strictly followed the BB Crash trade, it would have been profitable. The sell signal for the BB Crash trade is any close that is profitable, so very short term. I elected to hold for longer for the RSI(5) to hit 70. I am not sure what to expect here, but this DC is so far acting out of character for a typical DC on the ascending phase of an IC. If the RSI(5) does not touch 70 at any point in the DC, it would be the first time silver has done this since 2023.

a quick look at silver: Day 5 of DC3. It's been 5 days after the DCL and the swing low remains valid. A lower low in the coming days is likely not the 'correct DCL', but rather a bearish DC. After a healthy and expected bounce out of the extremely oversold DCL, price was able to begin closing above the 10 dma. A sign of a good start to a new DC. The 'wild west' phase of the tug of war between bulls and bears seemed it would be short lived if price was able to pull away from the 10 dma to the upside and begin to open a gap. However, price reversed course late in the day yesterday, closing below the 10 dma. Today, price continues to follow through, accelerating lower. For bulls, price needs to recover losses today and at minimum form a long bottom wick as buyers come into buy the dip. Long bottom wicks show support and staying near the 10 dma until ready to move up into the cycle high is the textbook bullish pattern. For bears, the DCL was extremely oversold, and the bounce seems short lived so far. Closing below the 10 dma for multiple days would point to momentum gathering to the downside. While a single day does not make or break a chart, the weakness of the bounce is only releasing some of the sentiment before renewed selling started again today. Holding above RSI(5) 30 will be an important short term milestone, and multiple closes above the 10 dma will be a big milestone. Steady as she goes. #Silver

@Welon_musk Still holding. They were up over 40% at some point yesterday, now down 18%. Big swings with front month.

a quick look at silver: Day 4 of DC3. At the time of this post, price is holding above the 10 dma for the third day in a row. This is the more bullish of the 'wild west' phase scenarios where price has broken above and stayed above the 10 dma. At day 4, the DCL can be considered validated as a lower low in the next few days is unlikely. Previous DCHs are all target levels for this DC. It will take time to repair the damage from the previous DC and re-establish a pattern higher lows and higher highs. For bulls, watch for price to break out of the flag on a pole candle stick pattern, where price breaks out of a short consolidation pattern. If price is able to begin opening a gap with 10 dma, this often begins the 'easy' phase of the DC, where price remains above the 10 dma until the DCH. The 10 dma is mildly turning up, and RSI(5) is neutral. Steady as she goes. #Silver