TheDailyCompounder @100xCompounding
Value Analyst Providing Outside Idea Generation & Research Services. Access Free Research: https://t.co/5GcJfaSFYw Not Investment Advice substack.com/@100xcompoundi… Joined February 2023-
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All credibility lost
The oil shortage is ending — and now comes the glut ft.trib.al/yBo2Omu
$RIG Harsh environment Semisub Norge awarded 300 days of work at ~$497k dayrate in Norway, an 9% increase from current $456k dayrate through Nov 2027 Healthy market continues for eligible HE Semisubs in Norway 🇳🇴 Equinox also extended by 90 days at $400k in Australia for 2Q27
@PamBondi !!!!!!!
@Ultradeep3 It will that’s 70% of the stability of the investment thesis haha right side of the capital cycle in a long lead time asset that’s hard to add supply
People want to call bubble on tankers while ignoring the capital cycle present in the AI infrastructure trade. Truly remarkable. Capital cycle wins everytime. Economics 101 work.
The world's largest oil tankers are being ordered at a record pace: There are currently 262 supertankers on order at shipyards worldwide, the highest number on record. This marks an over +1,000% surge from the levels seen just 2 years ago. Each of these vessels can carry up to
BREAKING: Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. will respond, Trump says
$NE has secured a 5-7 month contract for the GreatWhite (which is to be renamed) with BP commending in Q2 2027 directly preceding the AkerBP contract. DR $320K plus $5M mob fee. Great contracting! Looks like the "Norwayisation" of the rig is going well for NE. $RIG $VAL $ODL
@JamesHMackay Containers are already a short
But I thought oil was being phased out and demand is peaking??? Unless…. $VLO $XOM #OOTT
Giant Oil Supertanker Orders Eclipse Record Set in 2008
Building conviction is not something you "do" it is something you gain and then earn each day. With that said what really drives the investment case for $TDW and why is it sustainable? We aim to answer that in a one pager found below, enjoy. open.substack.com/pub/100xcompou…
I can’t tell if posts like this are engagement bate or true investigative work. Either way from everything I’m seeing the market is sleep walking into a massive crisis I just don’t know why no one cares or when they will
I’ve been exchanging emails all day with the ceo of Oil & Gas. The strait of Hormuz situation is worse than what we’re being told by market analysts. Expect an unprecedented decline in crude world wide. 97% of wells will run out of inventory. Climate Oil lockdowns are coming.
You’re not
This just feels like a massive rug pull on the horizon. For the sake of retail, hope I’m wrong
@GoodHouseCap Yeah it’ll only get an earnings multiple if it’s seen as more stable and fee generative IE the MGA
$ACIC Loving the price action in American Coastal prior to a major inflection over the next 18 months. We project end of year book value of $8.25 per share implying 1.2x book value for a business that generates 65% combined ratios, is paying out large special dividends, buying back stock and is ran by one of the most capable management teams I have ever come across.
$ACIC $UVE $HRTG $CB Enjoy our conversation with American Coastal Insurance CEO Brad Martz & CFO Lana Castle. In this conversation we talk about: 1) Founding of the Company 2) Company product, Customers & Competitive Advantages 3) New Excess and Surplus Businesses 4) Skyway
the $ACIC story really comes down to 2027. $75M of refi + Skyway/ACES/AmRisc share additions to earnings. This year is probably benign and if it does, they probably retain another $60-$70M of equity and book value is $400M on 48.46M shares or $8.25 bvps. To retain a similar valuation as today (roughly 1.7x) that takes you to $14~ plus any special dividends, buybacks and incremental earnings in 2027 from new earnings power.
I was legitimately just talking to my partner about this yesterday. We felt the market is totally sleep walking into crisis because it hasn’t “shown up” yet in anything except pump prices. I said that one day we will wake up and just be short critical materials like motor oil and the world will be shocked. I don’t want to be right about the severity of this crisis but everything points to massive shortages of critical raw materials through 2026 and into 2027. While fintwit looks at investment opportunities there will be millions of people short basic nutrition on top of what looks like a mother of all El Niños this year. Buckle up, praying I’m wrong. $AZO $XLE $SPY
@KiwiiRob Hahahahahaha that’s a good one
$72.50 $BRK.A is paying 1.2x tangible book value for Taylor Morrison when many of the mid sized builders sell for meaningful discounts to TBV. On the other hand $BRK.A buys OxyChem for $9.7B all cash. For a group of FinTwit folks who claim to be Buffet purists it seems you have not spent much time looking at what Berkshire has actually been buying over the last 3-5 years.
@HairClubPres KBH and Meritage are both discounts to TBV and profitable. Seems like a good value over 3-5 years
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