strube.hl @0xStrube

dont overthink the kingmaker trade there is only one House of All Finance. Hyperliquid. $HYPE

MP @MoneyPrinter0x

2 months ago

$hype will go to 200-250$ by q2 2027 it will flip $hood peak market cap (or at least, 60% of hood peak mc). $hood going 10x+ in a single year to 130billion mcap is normal for fintechs of this size. $hype only 10bil market cap now. i dont think market has priced nor fully

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Meanwhile, the “alt season” à la 2017 and 2021 crypto bull markets is happening in equities as we speak.

The term “alt season” seems to have lost all meaning on CT. People continue calling for it when 99.8% of tokens are down only. HYPE is leading risk-adjusted momentum by a fairly wide margin here. I think it’s much more likely that most liquidity still available in crypto goes to pumping HYPE. Maybe a small handful of coins to follow, but by no means “alt szn” in the historical sense.

since 2021 chatgpt went from 0 to 900M MAUs, there is nothing remotely comparable to that kind of activity occurring on crypto native rails the trade was rotate btc into gold as saylor ponzi institutionalized it and gold broke out of 10 year range and rotate eth into nvda/ai --- not sure how crypto will become fastest horse again when ai is being funded by infinite $$$ from the most profitable companies in the world that are being turbobid by every person with a job while being sponsored by governments, and in contrast crypto is comprised of the unemployed gambling against each other on coins backed by air, the ai tech cos are legit only constrained atm by lack of physical hardware & not enough energy from grids rather than dollars, and demand on retail + enterprise side has not shown any signs of slowing down as models continue improving and getting cheaper to use i do believe crypto will revolutionize finance with perps, stablecoins, and prediction markets - we are a 0 to 1 improvement on many archaic systems on how to speculate on assets and how to transmit value globally, but it is not clear whether that will be captured by existing majors ---- what could make crypto outperform again? • hyperliquid + tradexyz going viral with builder codes through multiple frontend venues as the best place to speculate with leverage on stocks, perps are a better product than options & will be more enticing for retail as they become more popular, need breakout attention outside of just CT bubble to catalyze this happening • crypto social app that does not market itself as a "crypto" app, with emphasis on user-focused identities provable w/ zk as a counterbalance to overwhelming amount of ai content on social media, gate app with $$$ tiers for certain unlockables, enable some sort of speculation prediction market features that allow people to bet on real life events with their friends, some sort of focus on IRL activity that differentiates itself from other socials with gamification aspect • whoever solves stablecoins for consumer stores seems like a big winner also • saylor somehow not face of bitcoin anymore, quantum issues solved with some dev organization, btc finds rightful place much closer to gold's market cap i honestly have no idea hype does seem like an easy hold but generally it seems much lower risk with more upside to simply sit in AMZN/GOOG/AAPL & gamble on lowcap ai shitcos feels like we need to go way lower to washout people who still are overconfident that we will just come back for no apparent reason

Another certified banger. Must read.

kel. @kelxyz_

2 months ago

x.com/i/article/2041…

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hl-s3-calculator.vercel.app Again, here is a model you can tweak to your specific assumptions. If you found this useful, I would appreciate a RT.

Anyway, thanks for coming to my Ted talk. These are just the best assumptions I could come up with given the way the HL team has behaved in the past, and their business incentives. Let me know what you think.

Inspired by @0xKmafia, here is my take on the current best guess for HYPE "S3" 👇 With the perpDEX landscape heating up and HL team unlocks now out of the way, competitive positioning seems imperative heading into 2026. You can check out the model yourself here (hl-s3-calculator.vercel.app) If you care to hear more about assumptions, continue reading below (short 🧵)

Crypto has never topped without an upswing in the business cycle and expansion of central bank liquidity. Betting on the "4 year cycle" replaying, but only using the time component of that theory is confusing. thank you for your attention to this matter

Compare those 2017 and 2021 cycles to this one. Conditions have been neutral at best. There are reasons to believe that might change in 2026. Putting my neck out there and saying calling "cycle" top here will look silly in 6-12 months.

Crypto cycles have basically exclusively peaked with maximally favorable macro and liquidity conditions (obviously low sample size). "Altseason" is likely not coming without those conditions. But a drawn out bear seems unlikely as well.

@fejau_inc do you subscribe to the idea that the business cycle dictates major inflection points for crypto (cycle bottoms/tops), or do you think its more liquidity-driven?

@blknoiz06 Root Beer flavor is goated

People asked me to clarify a few things so building on my post. I believe the 4 year cycle is no longer valid and in 3-6 months time BTC will be meaningfully higher than it is today. The path there is tricky as vestigal memetic consensus for a 4 year cycle still exists, so any garden variety sell-off will be amplified by those who still believe in it. BTC is in a temporary air pocket, given mean reversion after the torrential DAT buying, flows being pulled out to gold, flows being pulled out to equities, and flows that have already been pulled out to ETH/alts. Gold flows will naturally come back when it starts getting tired ($4k is a logical spot), equity flows returning will require a regaining of BTC momentum, ETH/alt flows returning is already starting but needs some more shakeout. At the same time, liquidity is on the softer side here, and we are waiting for more movement on the Trump Fed hijacking, the incremental fiscal spend from the OBBBA to kick in (Jan 1), and other key catalysts. As I've mentioned, the Trump Fed hijacking is a momentous catalyst, and I will dive deeper into my thesis and the legal mechanics at a later date - thus HTF I am super bullish, but it is something that will unfold gradually. The price action here is not very encouraging unfortunately, have to face it, wouldn't surprise me to see some down before higher. If that is the case, the most important thing will be to buy/add when that turnaround happens, I imagine the 4 year cycle panic will be quite loud at that moment. Then, the reversion out of that should be strong, as there is greater psychological space for a "it's so over" -> "we are so back" flip. I am staying long some core BTC positions, will have room to add to BTC from my large gold position as well as cash.

plur daddy @plur_daddy

9 months ago

It's been great being off Twitter, and has helped me shift towards a longer-term time horizon without getting caught up in the day-to-day noise. My thoughts are more clear, as it is easier for me to know what I genuinely think, versus what I have absorbed from the views of others

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