Am I dumb or are they old: I've heard successful older sports bettors say "I make a number on a game and if my number differs from the market by X% or more, I bet. When the difference is larger, my bet is larger" That might've worked then, but I'm very skeptical that works now
Today even a skilled modeler would lose staking amounts proportional how much his model differed from the market. As a model and the market diverge, the likelihood that the model is wrong increases. Staking should instead be weighted by confidence, not by the Δ in predictions
@0mamawembanyama Kelly Criterion - used in betting as well as investing. In simple terms, your bet size is commensurate with the size of your EV.
@0mamawembanyama just curious why you're skeptical that it works now? seems intuitive that a 5-10+ yr plus winning bettor's perceived bigger edges are actually bigger edges and thus warrant a bigger bet
@0mamawembanyama I have edge brackets in all of my models. Too small or too big is a net loser.
@0mamawembanyama You should bet 0 if your perceived edge is 0, you should bet 0 if your perceived edge is very large, there’s a sweet spot in between that varies depending on how efficient the market is. A +10% edge on a prop is much more bettable than a +10% edge on an NFL spread.
@0mamawembanyama If you thinking about Kelly size staking you doing this wrong…. If your looking to make it big (funny how this sounds counter intuitive)
@0mamawembanyama Those guys usually end up as touts or hosting a podcast or something.
@0mamawembanyama Pretty sure thats how it works now and wont ever change