Will Seltzer @willseltzer

@RosieCampbell There's something to be said for this in narrow contexts like sports, where beliefs have utility even when they aren't truth-tracking. If you realistically have a 10% chance of sinking the free throw, you'll perform better believing it's 90% at the line.

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

11 months ago

@RosieCampbell only seems to make sense if you've developed reliable methods of brainwashing yourself

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

11 months ago

@nabeelqu hopefully sama asks steve huffman for a consult. mvp of handling user revolts.

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

a year ago

@michael_nielsen do you think this is a more effective way for students to develop research skills at a young age?

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METR @METR_Evals

a year ago

When will AI systems be able to carry out long projects independently? In new research, we find a kind of “Moore’s Law for AI agents”: the length of tasks that AIs can do is doubling about every 7 months.

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

a year ago

@skylar_b_payne

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

a year ago

@SpencrGreenberg @AlexanderPayton Are you sure Musk's main aim in making these predictions is for his predictions to be true?

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

a year ago

@foundmyfitness Here's a research report on the most effective way to increase your VO2 max for anyone interested in relevant papers: elicit.com/review/01a6a70…

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

a year ago

@paulg @eladgil going to start asking myself on a monthly basis where I've been falling on the mudita - schadenfreude continuum

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

a year ago

@nickcammarata agreed but isn't the tension also adaptive? I've noticed after transitioning out of meditation retreats you're almost too emotionally unguarded to exist in the world. suspect there's a happy medium here where you know how to tense / relax relative to your circumstances.

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

a year ago

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

2 years ago

@adilmajid @obsdmd @cursor_ai excited to try this!

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

2 years ago

@robinhanson kind of you to offer job insurance for software engineers

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

2 years ago

@____brock____ Icarus - the original cracked engineer

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Will Seltzer @willseltzer

2 years ago

@knifefight Do you think there's an asymmetry between writing and moderating that favors writing? I'm hopeful. Transformer architectures make inputs cheaper than outputs since inputs can be read in parallel, but outputs cannot. e.g. gpt-4o is $5/1mm input vs. $15/1mm output