▪️The Fed is still significantly over-estimating US inflation: while official CPI is at 4.0%, real-time inflation trackers are below 2.5% as of today. ▪️@elonmusk is correct that the Fed risks pushing the US into recession if rates are kept too high for too long. ▪️The Fed uses historic data that in some cases lags reality by months, which risks over-compensation during rate-hike cycles. ▪️The May PCE report released on Friday might confirm disinflation & might signal the Fed to further pivot.
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@truth_tesla @elonmusk The Fed looks on PCE which is still high 4's. Lets see Friday's result. We need to see 0.2%-0.3% or lower monthly for a few months. I do agree that raising rates is insane as rate over 1% on inflation now.