@eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain While there is no straightforward way to answer this, we can use an approach based on the points reward system of Eigen. At the time of writing, ~1.67b points have been rewarded to users, with a daily emission of ~62.2m points. And those points are being traded on @WhalesMarket
@eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket Currently, those points are being offered at a price of ~$0.15-0.16 per point. Now, if we assume that the points snapshot is taken today, this implies that the total airdrop is currently being valued at ~$267m (1.67b x $0.16)
@eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket Based on different airdrop allocation %, this is what the implied FDV of $EIGEN is:
@eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket However, it seems that the airdrop is not for now. In fact, @Polymarket predicts that there is only an 11% chance that the airdrop will happen before the 30th of April. In that case, it is fair to assume that there will be many more points that will be rewarded to users...
@eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket @Polymarket So let's build upon this and assume that the snapshot of the airdrop will be taken anywhere from now to July. Using the same current price of $0.16 per point and the 62.2m daily points emissions, here's a table of $EIGEN potential FDV on the different snapshot periods:
@eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket @Polymarket Now, if we take the inverse approach and estimate the potential value of each point based on a timeline and different FDV scenarios (and assuming an initial airdrop allocation of 10%), this is what we have:
@eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket @Polymarket Using those assumptions, we note that in the majority of cases (except in the light orange areas), the current price per point is lower than our estimates. (However, we need to bear in mind that our assumptions can vastly differ from reality, so we should exercise caution here)
@eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket @Polymarket Last but not least, if we look at the recent airdrop of Starknet which landed at an FDV of >$20b, with less hype, and less innovative features, it seems reasonable (or at least to me) that $EIGEN has the potential to do really well.
@eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket @Polymarket Even if we are comparing apples and bananas here, it is a useful heuristic to gauge the current market sentiment around new trendy projects.
@eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket @Polymarket Now, based on your belief on the initial FDV of $EIGEN upon launch, you have the possibility to trade points on @WhalesMarket
@eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket @Polymarket On that note, I just want to thank you for reading this far 💚 Don't forget to retweet, like, and comment on your estimation for $EIGEN initial FDV 🚀🚀 PS: These are only my rough ideas. I could be wrong/miss loads of stuff, and this does not represent financial advice.
@tradetheflow_ @eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket @Polymarket Nice thread! Feel free to check out my new report on Restaking, might have some useful additional material!
@tradetheflow_ @eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket @Polymarket Nice thread! Feel free to check out my new report on Restaking, might have some useful additional material!
@tradetheflow_ @eigenlayer @LucasNuzzi @cbventures @polychain @WhalesMarket @Polymarket Points being valued at ~$0.15 or whatever - could be irrelevant. EigenLayer may choose to airdrop on a “tiers” approach - similar to jito, etc.