Tomas Valusiak @tomvalue

$RHM.NE had its worst day since 1989 last week when Germany axed the F126 frigate program, down about 18 percent. It has already clawed back above 1,000 euros on a fresh Ukraine shell order and the CEO buying his own stock. For two years the rearmament trade ran on one input, the promise to spend. 5 percent of GDP by 2035, the whole pledge priced in. The F126 scare was the market asking to see production behind the promise. The bounce says it still believes. The real test is next week in Ankara, where NATO is set to turn pledges into signed contracts. That is where the thesis gets its next leg or stalls. Still long the rearmament names.

The yen just hit 162 to the dollar, a 40-year low, and the Bank of Japan is raising rates into it. That combination is the setup, not the all-clear. Last August a hawkish BOJ plus one weak US jobs print unwound the carry trade and dragged every risk asset down with it, crypto included. CFTC data has speculative yen shorts back at those same July 2024 levels. Nobody in crypto is watching the one chart that mattered last time. $BTC doesn't care about Tokyo until the day it suddenly does.

This is the worst month for crypto flows since the ETFs launched, and from a BD seat you feel it before you see it in the price. When everything is green, every KOL and project wants a call and the inbox is pure noise. Months like this clear it out. The tourists go quiet and you find out who was actually building versus who was just here for the candles. Bear markets are the best filter BD ever gets. Taking notes on who is still picking up.

Everyone is arguing about whether bitcoin is dead this week. Meanwhile Citi put out a report putting tokenized real-world assets at trillions by 2030, up from about 26 billion on chain today, led by equities and treasuries. Tokenized RWAs are already up roughly 5x in three years. None of it shows up on a $BTC candle. Watching the candle while the rails get rebuilt is how you miss the actual story.

@ggg_trades Hey man, interesting analysis. I would like to talk in dms whenever you can find time.

@TheW3storm Sure, let’s talk!

In a week the EU effectively makes most of its crypto industry illegal to operate. MiCA goes fully live July 1 and fewer than one in five firms cleared the licensing bar in time. Everyone else stops onboarding Europeans, sells, or winds down. They will sell it as protecting consumers. The output is a continent handing its own citizens fewer places to trade, decided by a paperwork queue in Paris. Europe regulates what it is scared of, then wonders why the builders all leave.

Jeremy Grantham went on CNBC and called bitcoin a useless asset that fades to zero with a whimper. He nailed dot-com and 2008, so people listen. He is also getting the prime airtime now, with bitcoin:native down about 52% from its October high and the worst ETF outflow month on record. The respectable bear case always shows up at the lows, never the highs. Noted.

@WayneBCrypto Hey man, you post good trades. Let's talk in dms whenever you can find time.

Japan just approved its first yen stablecoin issued by an actual trust bank. SBI begins minting JPYSC within days, built for institutional settlement. Stablecoins have meant one thing for a decade: dollars. Tether alone is more than 180 billion of them sitting on chain. Now the first serious challenge comes from a regulated bank in Tokyo. Asia isn't waiting around for the West to define what digital money looks like.

Spent three days around ten thousand of the most convinced bitcoiners on earth while the actual tape did nothing. ETFs had bled for two weeks and price sat in the low 60s the whole conference. Then everyone went home, the Iran headlines softened, and bitcoin:native ripped back toward 66k. The room was never trading the price. That is the whole point of a conference like this.

@ShervCrypto @BitunixOfficial @BTCPrague Bro🫣🫣

Europe's biggest bitcoin conference ran in my city this week and I worked every hour of it. Two years ago I watched rooms like this on a livestream from a flat in Trenčín. This week I was on the floor in them. Walked out with a notebook full of names and nothing signed. For BD that is a good week.

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@oxmagicboy My take is that if you want to trade it, sure, but if you want to hold it’s insanely overpriced

Biggest IPO in history prices this week and it is not crypto. SpaceX lists Friday at a 1.77 trillion valuation, 75 billion raised. Same week bitcoin ETFs bled for the tenth day straight and BTC sat near 60k. The marginal risk dollar in 2026 is buying rockets and AI, not tokens. That is the tape. $SPCX

@ShervCrypto @BitunixOfficial I think we did a great job representing Bitunix

Everyone is watching crypto charts. The one that actually drives the tape this month is Brent. Israel and Iran traded missiles overnight for the first time since April. Brent jumped toward 98 intraday before easing back as a ceasefire got floated again. Whatever holds, energy is back as the swing factor in the inflation print Warsh inherits at his first meeting on the 17th. A brand new hawkish Fed chair does not get to cut into an oil shock. Risk is pricing the calm version of this, bitcoin:native included.

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Dimon spent years calling crypto a fraud he didn't care about. Now he's lobbying congress to kill the clarity act before stablecoins can pay yield on a dollar. Banks don't burn political capital on things that can't hurt them. The fear is the whole story here. $COIN

Five of us, five grand each, thirty days, one winner. The other four already quote tweeted this. I was busy trading it. Last to post, not last on the board.

TheUnqualifiedTraders @TheUnqTraders

a month ago

🏆 $5K Futures Trading Challenge 5 traders. $5,000 each. 30 days. One winner. Who's taking the crown? 👑 Follow the competition throughout June and watch the leaderboard unfold! #Crypto #CryptoTrading $BTC

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