Dr KB @thecontextshift
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Can’t disagree with a lot of this. But it seems to me the frontier closed labs aren’t going away funding-wise. Enterprises still pay up for reliability, compliance, and seamless integration into tools they already use. Once the raw stuff gets cheap, the money moves up the stack.Not zero-sum, just layered.
@quxiaoyin In retrospect, this seems obvious - frontier models as closed source was always going to be a zero game. And at best, one company might win. Thats a big thing to stake an IPO on. Funny how Apple stepping out of this game has helped them. Outsource the LLM, but make the hardware
@quxiaoyin But the US has bet the house on models being the MOAT. If they change strategy now...will that lead to a burst of the AI bubble ? Or is that inevitable anyway ?
1/This is the obvious move. If your MOAT is your frontier model, which can change month to month, that is a race to the bottom. China recognised that most companies don't need the frontier model, they can give that away for next to nothing. 2/The States has bet the house on AI, but if that is undercut by cheaper open LLMs from China, then what? The S&P500 which is now reliant on the big AI companies looks way overpriced and an AI bubble doesn't look like doomer talk anymore. 3/The biggest mistake the States made was to think that the way to win the AI war against China was to build the best models. So they cut off off chip supply from NVDIA. But China realised that the real target was not to be the best, but to be good enough at a fraction of the price. Eventually, even American companies let the balance sheet judge what they do next...
@godofprompt @TonySeruga @ronhekier This is so going 10x soon..
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Timely…open.substack.com/pub/thecontext…
Dr. Russell Barkley reframes ADHD in a powerful way: It's not just "attention deficit" — it's a failure of persistence toward goals. He explains: ADHD disrupts specific executive functions in the frontal lobe — not perception or filtering, but sustaining action toward delayed
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