Cool match here. Left is a TV mode edit by @MvonRen , right is a 3D recreation with the sun behind the Tic Tac, at low elevation (as expected from the time/date for FLIR1 ->11/14/2004, 3pm).
@MvonRen Picking up a random frame of the TV mode, with a bit of enhanced brightness/contrast, it can explain the sort of "peanut-shape". Possibly IR mode too as a reflective object would have reflected the sun if it was right behind it (glare).
@MvonRen No time to go into details now, but if Chad was indeed flying towards the sun when FLIR1 was filmed (sun was at 235°W at 3pm), we get something like this when including the effect of the 100-kts northerly wind (blue-> F-18 ; green-> Tic Tac)
@MvonRen Seems consistent with an object drifting in the wind in the first half of the vid, then speeding up/moving away. Just a quick take.