Gaurav Rastogi @rustapharian

The buy $GOOG graphic

Win rates hovering around 60% would make you the best quant fund ever. Only acheivable in backtests. In real life, the actual "win rate" for the world’s top quantitative managers is surprisingly close to a coin flip, usually hovering between 50.5% and 53%, and frequently falling below 50% for momentum strategies. The secret to their success lies in the mathematical relationship between position sizing, risk management, and asymmetric payouts.

So well said ! 💯. We worry about this at our fund already . We deployed 2700 cr in last 3 years and did very well in mid market Performimg credit . As we scale, will it work at 5000 cr - probably yes Will it work at 7500 / 10k .. very hard Thinking of Multiple strategies instead of one large fund

Introducing Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence 🔹 2.8 Trillion Parameters, 1 Million Context, Native Multimodal 🔹 Kimi Delta Attention enables up to 6.3x faster decoding in million-token contexts 🔹 Attention Residuals deliver ~25% higher training efficiency at <2% additional cost 🔹 Built for long-horizon agentic coding and self-evolving workflows Kimi K3 is now live on on Kimi.com, Kimi Work, Kimi Code, and the Kimi API. Open Weights by July 27, 2026. 🔗 API: platform.kimi.ai 🔗 Tech blog: kimi.com/blog/kimi-k3

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Profound in its simplicity. And why investing apps, unless grounded in strong founder tenets, essentially drift to day trading, F&O, MTF and the like.

unusual_whales @unusual_whales

3 days ago

Warren Buffett on the markets: "Since humans love to gamble so much, there's more money in actually cultivating gamblers than there are cultivating investors.

109 247 3K 280K 286

Investors routinely pour money into the largest active mutual funds or PMS schemes, assuming a massive asset base is proof of superior institutional capability. Academic research shows that alpha decays as a fund grows too large for its target market. As an extreme example, a $20 billion fund operating in a $100 billion universe faces brutal price impact and idea dilution. The manager is forced to buy their 40th best idea and constantly triggers regulatory disclosure ceilings that expose their trades to rivals. At a 20% market share, an active manager mathematically becomes the index itself. You are paying premium active management fees for what is effectively passive market exposure. True alpha requires backing agile managers who keep their asset size strictly aligned with market capacity.

This script never changes. A section of the market does well, and money chases it. We really are our own worst enemies on the investing playground.

Teena Jain Kaushal CFP® @Teena_Kaushal

4 days ago

Mid-cap funds attracted Rs 6,090 crore in June, the highest among all #equity categories, and about 21% of total equity MF inflows. Where is the money going? The #midcap funds that drew the most: HDFC Mid Cap (Rs 1,162 cr inflow, Rs 1 lakh cr AUM): no additions, no exits in

0 2 5 3K 0

Asked Gemini what would aggregate retail returns look like in India for direct stock investing (ex behavior, F&O, broking revenue, STT etc etc). It doesn't look good and for all the headache barely beats FD. If you have better aggregate data then do share, or tag your broker to disclose. FWIW broking has been one of the most opaque verticals till SEBI started publishing F&O data.

Renting a generic model to run your core business is a tax you don't need to pay, and the winners will be the ones who own their intelligence. Excited to back @anirudhsanga and the @BuildwithHyde team as they gain momentum to make custom models a reality.

Hyde @BuildwithHyde

a week ago

x.com/i/article/2075…

0 4 18 5K 3

read the full piece here: mbi-deepdives.com/meta-on-the-of…

It's been a year since I started my solo investing platform, investing $50 - 100K cheques into fintech and consumption-led startups. Five investments in so far, including @SimetrikHQ, @Lets_BytePe, @flenthomes, Agara, and @shoffr_in. Indian and global fintech leaders invest alongside me in these companies. This post is partly a reintroduction, and partly me sharing what I actually look for - in case it helps you decide if I'm the right person to talk to. I evaluate roughly 100 companies a month (yes there are that many fintech and adjacent startups!). Somehow, the past two months, the quality of business ideas and founders has skyrocketed and that's got me excited about fintech again. Two things separate the founders I want to back from the rest: ambition, and bias for action. On ambition: recently most founders seem to temper their ambition. Maybe it's VC pressure, maybe it's the fear of sounding naive. So I get pitches that are either too conservative or too vague. I don't want the market size. I want you to paint me a picture of the world you're building. Dream a little. I want to dream with you. If it doesn't work, we all know the capital goes to zero either way. It's my job anyway to evaluate the risk. The only thing I'm optimising for is the upside. So show me the the grand ambition. Quantify that ambition as much as possible. On bias for action: there's no clean way to measure execution speed from a short 30-45 min conversation. So I use a proxy: customer behaviour insights. It's usually the second question I ask founders. And within the first ten minutes, I have a hunch about whether I want to go deeper. I want founders throwing customer insights at me like they're throwing darts. High insights-per-minute tells me you've been in the field, not just in the building. You cannot build in a vacuum and hope customers grab it with both hands, a lot goes wrong when rubber hits the road. Insight only comes from time spent with customers. I'll admit, my bar here is high. I've spent years in this industry and spoken to thousands of customers - enterprise and retail. It's hard to surprise me with insights. But here's the thing: that's also true for someone with just a year or two in the trenches. Everyone knows the standard pain points by now. The differentiation isn't knowing the problem. It's knowing something about the customer that incumbents have stopped noticing, because as businesses scale, their CXOs spend less time with customers, and the ground truth gets stale. An early-stage founder still in the field can out-see them. Action produces information. Talk to customers, form a sharp insight, build, test, iterate, repeat: faster than everyone else. That loop, shortened, is bias for action. If you're building in fintech or consumption-led sectors and think you fit this mold, reach out. I'd love to hear the world you want to build, and the insights you're collecting along the way.

@kayezad @Abhinavkaul @ET_Wealth @sruthijith Spot on. x.com/rustapharian/s…

Gaurav Rastogi @rustapharian

2 months ago

x.com/i/article/2058…

0 2 9 1K 6

A good framework to see PF shall be 9.5% to 11.5% return not 8.25% tax free along with forced saving. There exist no better instrument for debt part of your asset alloacation for salaried employees.

Archit Gupta @architgupta

a week ago

India just made retirement saving optional. Back in 2014, the mandatory PF baseline was locked at Rs 15,000 of your basic salary. Twelve years of inflation later, that money today is only worth half of what it used to be. The new EPF Scheme 2026 was the perfect time to adjust

4 6 39 30K 29

The investor is the only source of money in the entire financial services ecosystem. Fund management fees, distributor trails, brokerages, transaction charges, STT, GST, relationship manager salaries, and finfluencer sponsorships are all extracted from your capital. Nobody else puts money in. Everyone else takes money out. Think about it deeply. Who all are you paying and for what returns?

Had heard the term “model monkeys”, but this is new. Momentum chasers are called “Momentum Chimpanzees” in Japan.

Spot on. A SIP stops is not the same as the investor stops investing. For the vast majority they churn funds but investing continues. Have made this point enough times. And AMFI has PAN level data, why not publish that instead?

Samir Arora @Iamsamirarora

2 weeks ago

Most probably they are not stopping investing- they are switching their SIPs from one fund to another so it is not all bad. Otherwise numbers don't add up- that SIP amounts keep growing but 90 pct stop. ( which means some completely new group started their SIPs to replace and

42 29 259 62K 39

The most counter intuitive mental model you will ever learn "survival of the unfittest" 👇

Сarm1ne @carm1nee

2 weeks ago

Carl Icahn paid a consultant $250,000 to figure out what 173 employees did "we can't figure out what they do either" - he fired all 173 - profit went from $1 million to $96 million this is him breaking down his two biggest trades on camera, why he believes most CEOs in America

56 178 2K 1.8M 2K

@sahilkukreja9 1.5% annually translates to 0.13% flow every month. Small.

For a country trying to build a long term equity culture, ~ 8% Indians have equity exposure, the Net SIP inflow as % of market cap is still really low. Starting from a lower base, it hasn't moved much. We have a long runway. When you hear a criticism of SIP try and separate the commentators view of expensive market valuation from a simple cashflow matching and rupee averaging investment framework. Lots of commentators conflate their view of expensive market valuation as a judgment on retail being naive to continue to SIP. The real signal, however, is this. None suggest a better alternative 🙏

IT has been dragging quality down. Better have a strong view on IT before you buy quality index here.

Abhishek Murarka 💹🐂 @abhymurarka

2 weeks ago

For the first time, Quality has underperformed for 5 consecutive years. The chart below shows Nifty 200 Quality 30's alpha over Nifty 200 TRI index over last 20 years. While the long term outperformance stands at +3.6%, there has been a continued underperformance between FY22 to

9 2 58 11K 23