Trying to predict short-term price action is hard, as I generally consider the short-term moves akin to a random walk, or geometric brownian motion.
..but..
if i had to guess, I would guess that BTC tags $70k soon, then gets a small bounce.
But after the bounce is over (likely a few days to a week or so), I do think BTC will head back to the lows from February 2026.
If I'm wrong about BTC revisiting the lows from February, I will quote tweet this and simply say "I was wrong."
And then I will let every bull dunk away.
I invested $5000 in Aster seed round and at ATH it was $500k. There is no industry that is giving you these kind of opportunities.
Only Possible In Web3❤️🦅
Altcoin holders waited 5 years for altseason.
Most altcoins are now down 90%.
Meanwhile every other asset on the planet is pumping.
RIP altcoin holders.
Toncoin (TON) -> Gram (GRAM)
Community vote is live.
Since Telegram took a leading role in TON's development, the chain got 10× faster, fees 6× lower.
And now Telegram proposes one more change: renaming Toncoin to Gram - the name from the original TON White Paper that never left the codebase.
Vote here -> ton.vote/EQDQvywF226NXo…
not sure what it is w sol, but it always needs max pain to pick up again
seeing some big signs of life emerging again after a hiatus
new monetary proposals, new trading apps launching, big focus on derivatives and privacy, much faster blocks and a few new releases
ymf
I largely think of "crypto" as a failed asset class at this point.
I've written about the causes multiple times. Mainly, most crypto assets are worthless, or have dreadful value accrual, and most founders have abused the lack of guardrails and dumped on people indiscriminately, or are outright scammers.
On top of that we had the Memecoins SuperBullshitCycle, a trend that brought the worst out of people, and sucked everyone's souls & pockets dry. And then came the never-ending wave of DeFi hacks, which has dramatically increased since last April.
This can seem contradictory, as adoption of "crypto" is surging:
> Stablecoin adoption continues growing fast
> Politicians in the US are openly pro crypto
> Tradfi is looking at tokenizing everything
> Usage of equities & commodities perps is exploding in offshore and DeFi exchanges
> The US is in the early stages of adopting perps
> Prediction markets are becoming part of everyone's daily lives
These are more "blockchain" than "crypto", although there are some exceptions with a token in those fields, most of which have been performing very well in recent months. A few among those exceptions even distribute most revenue to holders via buybacks (Hyperliquid in particular), which is what every investor actually wants to see to be invested in a good business rather than a fleeting narrative.
We also have the privacy category. The one old school crypto category that is not liquid diarrhea. The world needs private non-custodial stores of value.
Crime in particular needs privacy, as proven by the DoJ confiscation of $15 billion in Bitcoin from Cambodia's pig butchering farms, legal filing for which was submitted on October 8, 2025 (coincidentally right before 10/10). Of course, everyone needs privacy, not just criminals, but crime flows are real, and large.
The asset attracting the most flows in this niche is Zcash. Zcash's recent performance has been fascinating, as it has been trending higher with bitcoin trending lower, a sign of real reallocation among bitcoiners.
Another crypto category that is not dead is the "AI" category, full of high flying, fundamentally lacking, narrative driven tokens. The standout exception is Venice, a private AI platform with growing users and revenue, whose tokens are directly backed by the business rather than a narrative.
So one could say old "crypto" is a failed asset class, but from the ashes come new beginnings, and the new face of crypto is one heavily dominated by the needs of Tradfi, prediction markets, AI, and privacy.
Crypto sucks. Long live crypto.
Yesterday the crypto market just had its 3rd largest liquidation event of 2026.
$1.8 billion in leveraged positions got liquidated as $BTC dropped to a 2-month low and $ETH dropped to a 3-month low.
And the worst part? This did not happen because of weakness in market or some major bad news, this was a result of pure manipulation to hunt leverage and flush out retail.
The US stock market hits historic highs and BTC is down -45% from its peak ? There is no genuine explanation for this.
crypto's been wild today lol so much happening all at once, my portfolio is giving me anxiety ngl 😅 feels like every project is making moves simultaneously
who else is just trying to keep up? #crypto
82 Followers 223 FollowingA token that sings a lament for failed protocols. Its value accrues from the entropy of dead projects, a memorial in the mempool.
2 Followers 48 FollowingSome people seek control. Others seek someone worthy enough to surrender to. There is elegance in quiet submission and grace in unwavering devotion.
781K Followers 0 FollowingMy team uses this account now. Find me on https://t.co/xXqqqjq7Mt or https://t.co/DrzRPDF6ug
#Bitcoin & Open Blockchains, since 2012.
Author of 6 books.