@TheGreekTrader@willo2_Poly okay, my bad. Was looking at another market
so yeah, main problem here is Polymarket not learning from its own mistakes which cause hundreds of thousands in losses
Polymarket just set a precedent that breaks trust in prediction markets.
'MSTR sells any bitcoin by May 31' market resolution text said YES if MSTR sells any BTC by the deadline.
source: MSTR info + on-chain data. no mention of when it's disclosed.
8-K says the sale happened May 26–31. in-window. verifiable on-chain.
then a clarification dropped saying confirmation outside the window doesn't count – importing an announcement-timing rule the text never had
how does anyone – retail or institutional – trust a platform that rewrites rules after the event?
imagine reading the resolution text, building convictioN, understanding how 8-K filings work. then a clarification drops that wasn't anywhere in the original rules and ruins all of it.
a resolution standard you can only know after the event isn't a standard
shorted Iran Hormuz market at 25% this week. now it's at 2%
the spike came from this Nikkei headline: 'Iran to open Hormuz 30 days after US deal'
for retail it looked like an obvious YES
the resolution criteria excluded any deal with fees. every leak said Iran was keeping the fees.
retail traded the headline. the market resolves on the rules
read the criteria before you trade the news.
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