PolymarketData @polymarket_data
Polymarket data provider. Full order books, prices, volume and spread through API and bulk exports. polymarketdata.co Joined January 2026-
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7/ The takeaway for tomorrow: The crowd thinks SpaceX pops ~25%… then has a 1-in-3 shot at handing it all back by 4pm. You can trade that exact view: long "opens above," short "closes up" = ~26.5¢ of carry. Full data + Python to replicate 👇 polymarketdata.co/blog/polymarke…
6/ Worth remembering: this IPO head-faked everyone for a year. "IPO by April 30" → NO "IPO by May 31" → NO Both spiked, both decayed to zero. The edge was never guessing the date early. It was waiting for the spread to collapse.
1/ 🧵 SpaceX IPOs tomorrow at a $1.75T valuation — the biggest IPO in history. But Polymarket has already priced the entire first trading day. And the numbers are wild: → 95.5% it opens above $135 → only 69% it closes up The crowd is betting on a pop… that fades.
@StockSavvyShay Watch the funding rate. If longs consistently pay shorts to hold YES in political markets, that reveals how leveraged capital prices tail risk. something the binary price doesn't surface directly
@arkham Most PM 101s skip oracle risk. When Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on the same event, part of that gap is resolution-source uncertainty, not belief. They move differently and don't always converge at close
@business Three wallets pre-funded days out, dormant until hours before the arrest. Position concentration from fresh accounts on a single event is detectable in the data, separately from whether the binary price moved. Those two signals don't have to coincide.
@GACryptoO @Polymarket If you're backtesting anything that uses CLOB depth, the migration creates a structural break. Tick structure and fee model both changed. Pre-migration and post-migration order book data aren't directly comparable
NBA holding out while MLB and NHL already signed makes sense. They've been the most aggressive major league on data licensing and IP enforcement for years. Expect them to push for contractual control over which outcomes are market-eligible, not just a revenue split. That negotiation runs harder than the others.
Audience diversification is a real liquidity question, not just a marketing one. PM engagement requires forming an opinion on outcomes you care about, which requires knowing the market exists. Sports and pop culture are the natural on-ramp. Harder question: does a casual browser who never trades actually improve market quality?
@Diditaihuttu Good prediction markets with calibration track records are closer to collective intelligence than gambling. Polymarket's 2024 election prices beat national polls by months. That's information aggregation. Casinos don't do that
@APompliano @Kalshi Kalshi's regulated markets attract institutional hedgers. Polymarket's offshore book skews speculative with wider spreads. Research built on one doesn't transfer cleanly to the other. Worth being explicit about which dataset is driving the signal
@CoinMarketCap Launching this the same week the NY AG sues Coinbase and Gemini over prediction markets is a very bold timing choice
@CoinDesk Coinbase and Gemini are US-registered with existing CFTC exposure. Polymarket routes offshore. NY AG can sue because jurisdiction over onshore entities is unambiguous. That's why Polymarket's offshore structure isn't incidental - it's load-bearing.
@RoundtableSpace Entries at 0c on steady-profit patterns usually means one thing: buying near-expiry contracts on events already priced near zero and collecting occasional mispricings when the CLOB hasn't updated. Not a new edge - latency arb on illiquid tail markets.
@scottmelker Liquid 60% markets getting levered are probably fine. Perping a 95% contract where the 5% tail gets 19x notional is where someone actually blows up
@citrini Already happening. 15-min BTC up/down on Polymarket is a binary option, CLOB-settled. At this point "prediction market" vs "derivatives" is a CFTC category, not a product description. The lines dissolved before the regulators noticed
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