nita @nitafif

脱サラ8年目/株やってます。健康ロング中 Joined October 2017

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nita @nitafif

4 days ago

とりあえず株のことは忘れて、土日に散財〜💸

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Knockouttrader @knockouttrader

a week ago

Goldman finally upgrades Kioxia 285A.JP to Buy and nearly doubled its PT from ¥48,000 to ¥93,000 and got materially more bullish on Kioxia and, by extension, the NAND cycle. Peak profits are now expected to continue rising through FY3/29 instead of peaking materially earlier! (++) Goldman now expects NAND supply tightness to persist through CY28 (++) Peak profits this cycle seen materially higher and more sustainable than previously assumed (++) Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron continue prioritizing DRAM/HBM investment, limiting NAND supply growth (++) DRAM procurement risk for enterprise SSDs appears largely resolved (++) BiCS 8 transition expected to drive lower costs and stronger margins over time (+) IR Day, quarterly results and continued NAND price increases seen as potential catalysts Goldman isn’t arguing NAND has become a structurally different industry. They’re arguing the cycle itself has changed because AI demand is arriving while supply growth remains constrained. Same cyclical industry, much higher earnings ceiling. If NAND supply remains constrained because memory makers keep allocating capital toward DRAM/HBM, that should support the broader NAND ecosystem for longer than investors currently expect. 285A.JP $MU $005930.KS $000660.KS

Knockouttrader @knockouttrader

2 weeks ago

UBS initiating Kioxia with Buy 285A.JP with a pretty aggressive stance on the NAND cycle. Their core argument: The memory upcycle still has a lot more room to run - especially as AI inference increasingly pulls NAND into the AI infrastructure stack. (++) UBS

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Jukan @jukan05

3 weeks ago

Do you see why Nittobo’s stock has been moving sideways now? They have no intention of raising prices. Unlike memory companies, which are aggressively raising prices right now, Japanese companies like this place an extreme emphasis on customer relationships and market share. This is also one of the reasons I did not buy Nittobo or Ajinomoto. They are too conservative and care too much about their customers. Japanese companies, please start abusing your pricing power a little… like the memory companies.

Jukan @jukan05

3 weeks ago

Why No Price Hike Despite a Severe Shortage? Why doesn't Nittobo raise prices to reap windfall profits? The AI server boom has triggered an explosion in global demand for high-end glass fiber materials. Yet even as the market tightens into deepening shortage, Nittobo (Nitto

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nita @nitafif

3 weeks ago

フジクラが下げ止まるまでどうにもなんなそう

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nita @nitafif

4 weeks ago

キオクシアのおかげで全て救われるわ、ありがとうキオクシア…

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nita @nitafif

4 weeks ago

GW明けてからずっと強くてありがてえ。米SQ後にガンマスクイーズの巻き戻しが来たとして、大して調整しない読みでいる

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Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay

a month ago

Hard to take the “AI bubble” argument seriously when some of the largest companies on earth are still putting up these growth numbers: • $GOOGL Cloud +63% YoY • $MSFT Azure +40% YoY • $META revenue +33% YoY • $AMZN AWS +28% YoY

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nita @nitafif

2 months ago

杞憂であることを祈る

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nita @nitafif

2 months ago

Mythosリスクを考えていくと資産管理がかなり難しくなるよなあ。個人単位もそうだし企業、国単位でexploitされまくったら簡単に市場も生活もパニックになる未来しか見えない…

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深津貴之 / THE GUILD, note @fladdict

2 months ago

Mythosの出現をみんな甘くみすぎてるよ。各国がMythosもどきを作るのに半年〜1年として、それまでにセキュリティをアプデできない金融、インフラ企業は全部無防備で的になる可能性を考えるよろし

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nita @nitafif

2 months ago

3月の損失を完全に取り返した。まだまだ行ってくれ

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nita @nitafif

2 months ago

停戦！最高の朝来てるね

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@

3 months ago

トランプのTACOが最終的に成就するかは不明。ヘッドラインのタイミングも読めない。ただ、そうしたヘッドラインが出る確率が相応に高いことは事前に認識できた。今は「下を叩く」側のリスクリワードが悪化していることも認識できた。理由はまず金利。去年の関税局面を思い出せば、トランプの最後のアキレス腱は株ではなく金利。長期金利が5%に迫る水準は、かなり強いTACOゾーンへの入口。加えて週末のイラン発電所爆撃ヘッドライン。要求対象が「ホルムズ海峡」に限定化。ディエスカレーションという判断は難しくない。さらに株のセットアップ。ネガティブガンマがピーク近辺で、市場は戦争前から過剰ヘッジ。機関投資家のポジションも既にかなり剥落。この状態でヘッドラインが出た場合、リスクは上下で非対称。根底はシンプル。社会全体に広く痛みを及ぼす問題ほど、政策対応・技術的工夫・制度調整のインセンティブは強まるという事実。人間社会は痛みに弱い。痛みをそのまま放置するほど、人は悪化に寛容ではない。自分は、これが株ショートの難しさの本質の一つだと思っている。