My own punditry on this: I hate those columns that say young voters are shifting to Trump because they don't like how Biden's dealt with Israel/Palestine. This is not actually happening. They all hate Trump and don't say they'll vote for him. split-ticket.org/2024/03/27/we-…
@lxeagle17 And yet your own poll shows a 10-15% shift among this demographic
@lxeagle17 So many of them like an anti-vaxxer and his anti-IVF running mate.
@lxeagle17 @admcrlsn Young voters would be more likely to abstain than vote for Trump
@lxeagle17 There is a huge difference between voting for Trump and simply not being motivated enough to turnout. Young voters generally take a lot of field work to push turnout. Youth turnout was exceptionally high in 2020, about 10 points over 2016 and key in victories for swing states.
@lxeagle17 Interesting to square this with the swing state polls showing Trump ahead among 18-29s. I am more inclined to believe Biden is ahead among young voters, but time will tell
@lxeagle17 So they hate everyone because they don’t get their pony.
@lxeagle17 @admcrlsn Ok, but the RFK vote is terrifying.
@lxeagle17 Looking at margin instead of actual % attained is going to be a lot of folks’ downfall in evaluations. Biden’s numbers being down doesn’t mean trump’s is up!
@lxeagle17 @joshtpm Thank you for looking at this. I hate the notion of "unskewing" pills, but something has been way off with so many vs. actual election results. There is a reason, and I've been wondering if it isn't the methodology.
@lxeagle17 talking about a poll with n=227 is the same as talking about crosstabs.