Russia has started withdrawing its peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh. It’s shocking how Azerbaijan got away with depopulating entire region without being punished. But the fate of the region was determined by crude and disgusting realpolitik. For the West, the attack by its energy ally, Azerbaijan, against Russian-protected Nagorno-Karabakh presented an opportunity for opening a second front against Russia in the Caucasus. This would have stretched Russia’s resources as it waged a war of agression in Ukraine. Putin wouldn’t take the bait and preferred to abandon Armenia, which made it easier for him by its pro-Western re-orientation under Pashinyan. Not that he had any military options against the Azeri army - just look at the geography. Warmongering think-tanks celebrated Russia’s defeat which came at the cost of ethnic cleansing and the triumph of Azeri dictatorship over Armenian democracy. The population of Nagorno-Karabakh was betrayed and used by literally everyone in this ugly and shameful episode of history. Nagorno-Karabakh is worth remembering also because the first stage of that war in the fall of 2020 contributed to the argument that Ukraine could defeat Russia militarily - remember all the excitement about Bayraktars exuding from Atlantic Council and their likes. That excitement preceded Ukraine’s U-turn on peace talks with Russia in January 2021 which in its turn triggered Putin’s response as he began amassing troops on the Ukrainian border.
@leonidragozin You missed the important nuance that Nagornyi Karabakh is the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, and it matters more than kinds of regimes in Azerbaijan and Armenia. Armenia had plenty of time to solve the conflict by renewing Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.
@leonidragozin This is putting quite a bit of causal pressure on the 2020 war that we don't have the evidence for. Defence ministries etc around the world observed Azerbaijan's drone war closely; relevant diplomatic consequences are possible (as yet unreported). But this is too strongly put IMO
@leonidragozin What your post misses is that Russia never made any commitment to defend Armenian troops in Azerbaijan.
@leonidragozin It ‘s fun how armenian sympathizers justify occupation of Karabakh and surrounding regions by “democracy vs dictatorship” dichotomy as if territorial integrity is only for democratic countries.
@leonidragozin Armenians with the help of Russia massacre and force 800K Azerbaijanis out of Karabakh & Armenia - silence. Azerbaijan offers Armenians of Karabakh to stay & take passports of Azerbaijan, but Armenians refuse & decide to leave - Wow! Horrible! Ethnic cleansing! Pathetic clown.
@leonidragozin You're accusing the West of supporting Azerbaijan, without even mentioning Turkey. I don't think this is good analysis.
@leonidragozin An interesting take. Are you suggesting that the Russians should have stayed after Pashinyan demanded they leave? armenianweekly.com/2023/01/11/pas…
@leonidragozin You conveniently forgot to mention that Armenia ethnically cleansed Karabakh and 7 surrounding districts of Azerbaijan in 1990s, expelling 700,000 Azerbaijanis, and refused to comply with these 4 UNSC resolutions. Azerbaijan took back its own territory 2001-2009.state.gov/p/eur/rls/or/1…