At 0500, ten ASOS sites are at/below 32°. The smoothed Histogram (Frequency Chart) imagines 1,000's of random readings & suggests a few happy Southern New Englanders are lounging at 50°+.
My Ashland low this morning is 27°. The red cross-hatch represents 3.2% of the total area beneath the Bell Curve. The 27° or chillier Return Period on April 26 is 1/.032= 31 years. This is a rare occurrence, yet certainly not a record for this date.
Here is perhaps, the most prodigious Martha's Vineyard radiation ever? At 5 AM, MVY, at 22°, is 4 degrees lower than any other S New England ASOS site. I celebrate this occasion with a nice Violin Plot.
For rainfall to happen, we need lift (UVV) acting upon nearly saturated air. The BOS 09Z HRRR model shows a couple of -RA chances this morning, then a brief chance of +RA at ~5 PM, at which time strong lift intersects Relative Humidity >90%.
Oh my...What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours! I just couldn't help but flip the Histogram on its side. And aren't things a bit boring at 1,000-foot Worcester Airport?
Martha, Martha, Martha! As is so often the case with radiational cooling conditions [Clear/Calm]; this morning, MVY won the prize for the chilliest S New England temperature. Yet, how fragile it was...As soon as the breeze kicked in, up shot the temp 20° in a mere two hours!
This Mundane Monday, I compare 5 AM temperatures at Clear/Calm sites vs. not Clear/Calm. The latter average 5° warmer than the eleven "pure" radiating locales. As a bonus, the Box Plots nicely contrast the distributions. No surprises here! [My Ashland low was 30° at 7 AM]
Numerical models, such as the GFS, are notoriously lousy in resolving surface temperatures. Nevertheless, here are 10 days of Ashland temps at 3-hour intervals. Local gardeners, beware overnight Thursday/Friday morning!
All S New England ASOS sites are cooler than 24 hours ago, yet differentially so. Here's an excellent example of using the Box Plot to identify Outliers. Neither North Adams, Orange nor ACK belong to an otherwise highly symmetric pattern. The remaining 33 are very well-suited!
I try to locate the Tropopause above BOS using 06Z NAM. At what level does it stop cooling & begin to warm? Erratic at best... See the punch of warmth into the stratosphere very late this evening. "On average" it's at ~200 mb or about 40,000 ft [top of the jet steam level].
Now & then, I just can't decide whether to draw a Histogram or a Box Plot. With overcast throughout the region, temps are tightly packed with ½ between 43° & 45°. The smoothed red distribution curve says finding a S New England temp at 6 AM in the 30s is extremely unlikely!
April 14 last year, the high was 90°. So far this April, it has managed to reach 70° twice. On only 4 occasions, an April 2024 day has been warmer than the corresponding day in 2023. The more I explore @datagraphapp, the more amazed I am with its endless possibilities!
Here are 4 AM S NE Dew Points. My all-time favorite met term is Isodrosotherm, so I drew three lines of constant dew point. What an intense moisture gradient at Newport/Fall River/Falmouth! I love drawing Box Plots, so I drew one.
This 10-day Boston time/height series features the 0° C isotherm per the 12Z GFS. This Saturday we transition as the zero isotherm plunges. Next week, should over-zealous gardeners be wary of Jack F?
This Ashland 10-Day Time/Height Series Chart shows regions of near saturation (RH>90%); in other words, it's a good first approximation of cloudiness. Per the 00Z GFS, with Deep moisture, the one opportunity for significant rainfall is a week from Thursday/Friday. @datagraphapp
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