Joequant @joequant
Physicist and Space Cadet @MIT @UTAustin github.com/joequant Hong Kong Joined June 2009-
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@baoshaoshan Also if you read Nixon and Kissinger the reason for Nixon's policy is that he knew China was eventually going to be a peer to Russia and the US. The idea that you could keep China down wasn't there before the 2010s.
@baoshaoshan Funny that Bertrand Russell mentioned that this was going to be a problem back in 1925. Also this seems to be a problem with today's neocons and not with most ordinary people. My parents immigrated to the US because the US was interested in making China rich and powerful.
What is odd is that in the 2000's this was considered a *good thing*. China would work in sweatshops making stuff, whereas everyone in the US would work for Goldman-Sachs.
This is exactly right! China has a comparative advantage in productivity and the West has a comparative advantage in assets. When these two economies trade, it will be a net assets for goods trades. Why is that so difficult to accept?
Well no surprise here. The benchmark Treasury rate for China is 1 percent while the US is 5 percent.
State-directed credit has long been one of the most powerful industrial policy tools for East Asia, including China. "The researchers found that even Chinese companies with poor credit ratings were able to borrow from state banks at rates far below those available to highly
@Brad_Setser But those macro shifts are the result of things that could have gone in very different directions. So COVID could have gone in a dozen different directions, as could have Ukraine.
Right but the reason that they made these projections is pretty obvious if you move the diagram back. At that point it becomes clear that what the IMF is doing
"The IMF, rather consistently, has forecast that China’s surplus will fall over time. And, until very recently, the IMF more or less forecast that it would fall back to around 1 percent of China’s GDP. That was the IMF’s forecast in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024."
@Bluebearmonkey Hi labor cost GOOD. Did you really think that China wanted to be in the sweatshop business forever? Oh wait.... You did.
@Brad_Setser @CBankingEditor A lot of the we are trying to help Chinese workers are just the same nonsense as the people that claim to support Iranian dissidents. At this point I see no possibility of coming up with a negotiated trade deal with Europe, so just do what you have to do.
@Brad_Setser @CBankingEditor The problem is that any proposals that China gives to reduce the trade deficit are rejected out of hand. Many people like me believe that it is useless to discuss this issue because a lot of the people involved really want to blow up the Chinese economy.
@baoshaoshan @admcollingwood It might be something to think about after the revolution happens. I just can't imagine the current bunch of people in Europe staying in power for much longer. My guess is they figure that Trump is going to get kicked out and we return to a clone of Obama/Biden.
Things happen at which point you have to rerun your numbers. Also economic projections are more often wrong than right. So a projection from 2020 about 2026 tells you more about 2020 than 2026.
is to just extrapolate the trends in the 2010s. This brings up the point that projections are not predictions. One way I think about it is a sniper rifle. The projection is a laser sight that tells you what you are going to hit in the base case.
@baoshaoshan well if we agree to your tough on China policy and stop Chinese imports, you are going to promise to keep our jobs and any money you make won't go to your hedge funds friends...... Well.....
@baoshaoshan One thing that I find interesting is that blame China doesn't seem to be having that much traction in Europe. I think the issue is that if Merz tells German auto workers that their layoffs are because of China, they the auto workers are going to ask....
cheap energy commodities that they can use to power the rest of the economy, they will refuse to important foundational tech, and this will cause the rest of the economy to blow up.
It makes 1973 look like nothing. The thing is that China is in really ***GOOD*** shape. While Europe seems to think that cheap Chinese EV's and solar cells are total threat. The thing is that my suspicion is that EU is so anti-China, that instead of importing
What is really interested in that the economic projections that Deng used in 1978, assumed 6% growth until 2000 and 3% after. Also these growth rates are not unheard of. France and Germany were growing at about 4% between 1950 and 1973.
Some commentators - I won’t call them analysts - had claimed that they’d be surprised if China could achieve annual growth of 2-3% during this period. That’s despite having a front row seat from the comforts of a Courtyard house in the heart of Beijing. Go figure.
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