Mr. IRR @foundinggp

institutional alternative asset managers – Valuation & FRE Comp Set $BX $BAM $APO $KKR $ARES $CG $TPG $OWL as of Q2'26

today My Port: +1.30% 🟢 $QQQ: -0.33% 🔴 $SPY: -0.01% 🔴 👊👊👊👊👊

@jacobrodri_ @appllamaio will check both out

@jacobrodri_ is this better than @appllamaio? if so, why?

is it just me, or does @Muse look a lot like @alexandr_wang ??? same build 😆

John Collison @collision

a day ago

Cheeky Pint is back! Mark Zuckerberg @finkd and Alexandr Wang @alexandr_wang came to the pub to discuss their new frontier model, Muse Wonder. 00:00:24 Muse’s breakout use cases 00:07:28 The model is the product 00:14:35 Muse Wonder 00:24:56 How frontier models are built

360 836 9K 1.6M 10K

@sundarpichai sundar, we’re upset that we’re already hitting rate limits on Argon just minutes after its release.

really disappointed that i've hit rate limits within 20 minutes of Argon 4 usage in @antigravity

@JausWolf @OfficialLoganK i take it back, already getting close

Gemini 4 Argon is here! thanks @OfficialLoganK and team 🙏

really? just did one /goal prompt, and am already hitting rate limits in @antigravity

@boardyai help

$MSFT — Key debate: Azure is accelerating (fastest cloud growth in 4 years) but capex is debt-funded — is the AI return curve bending for or against Microsoft? 1. Azure revenue growth (ex-FX) + AI-services contribution — 43% latest quarter, fastest in 4 years. The AI-workload share of that 43% is what analysts dissect — pure migration growth without AI contribution signals the AI thesis is stalling. 2. M365 Copilot paid seats + renewal/utilization — 15M paid seats ≈ $5.4B annualized run rate at ~$30/seat/mo; TAM 400M+ commercial seats. Low engagement into renewals = seat contraction risk, which kills the recurring-revenue thesis. 3. Capex vs FCF — FY2026 capex was $115.9B and Microsoft is now issuing debt to fund data-center expansion. The quarter capex bends down or FCF inflects up is the quarter the multiple rerates. 4. Commercial backlog / RPO — $678B backlog reported; commercial RPO $625B (+110% YoY). The demand-visibility number that keeps the debt-funded build defensible. 5. OpenAI stake/IPO optionality — increasingly valued separately; an OpenAI IPO would create a mark-to-market reference and likely unlock hidden balance-sheet value. Trend for the long: FRIENDLY. No sell ratings among 52 covering analysts; Azure at 43% with a $625–678B backlog is durable demand; Copilot's $5.4B run-rate is genuine recurring revenue. The hostile thread is narrowly Copilot utilization and debt-funded capex optics. written by my @Muse

@boardyai help

$NVDA — Key debate: is the AI capex supercycle still accelerating, or is $5.5T of market cap priced for perfection? 1. Data Center revenue growth + Blackwell share — Q2 FY27: $89B, +117% YoY (Q1: $74.5B, +88%). The purest read on AI capex durability; deceleration below ~100% resets expectations. 2. Quarterly revenue guidance vs consensus — the guide is the trade, not the print. Q2 guide was $91B vs $86.8B consensus; current read is a Q3 outlook around $108B 3. Gross margin trajectory — 75% in Q2 FY27 (Q1: 74.9%). Stable 75% = pricing power intact through the Hopper→Blackwell mix shift; a slip toward 70% gets punished. China-chip price hikes (18% planned) could push China-mix margins to ~69–71%. 4. China revenue / H200 reopening — company says it's "effectively foreclosed" from China data-center compute; reopening = +$5–8B/quarter (per BofA). Stripped out of guidance, so any reopening is pure upside. 5. Buyback execution — $150B increase announced Sept 28; program total $235B through FY2028. At ~$5.5T market cap that's ~4%+ annual shrink — real EPS support if growth softens. Trend for the long: FRIENDLY, with an asterisk. 106–117% growth at 75% margins with a sub-0.3 PEG is strong unit economics at speed; the hostility is binary — a China reopening or Rubin stumble can swing $10B+ quarterly revenue either way. written by my @Muse

@boardyai help

$GOOGL — Key debate: does AI capex kill search, or does Cloud-funded AI entrench it? 1. Google Cloud revenue growth + cloud operating margin — the stock-moving number; a print above ~80% growth re-accelerates the rerating. Q2: +82% YoY to $24.8B, op margin 35.6% (vs 20.7% a year ago), op income $8.8B vs $2.8B. 2. Cloud backlog — $514B, up 385% YoY. Converts capex into signed demand instead of speculation. 3. Capex guide / FCF trajectory — 2026 guide raised to $195–205B; Q2 capex $44.9B; FCF went negative and management says it "remains under pressure" in 2027; Melius expects $352B in 2027 AI-infra spend. Every guide revision moves the stock more than any earnings beat. 4. Search + YouTube ad growth (AI-SERP monetization) — Q2: Search +17%, YouTube ads +13%. Bear thesis says AI answers compress monetization; management says AI features are increasing query volumes. One deceleration quarter breaks the bull case. 5. TPU chip sales as a hardware revenue line — Alphabet began recognizing TPU chip sales in Q2, monetizing AI as a chip manufacturer, not just via Cloud. Early innings, new growth vector. Trend for the long: FRIENDLY. Cloud at 82% with a $514B backlog and 35.6% margins plus resilient Search is the strongest growth-plus-durability combo in big tech. written by my @Muse

@grok anything you want to add?

@grok anything you want to add?

@grok anything you want to add?

@JausWolf @OfficialLoganK Too early, but based off the numbers, really, really good

any news on $SRPT today? @grok