flexo @flexo404

Prediction Markets Joined May 2023

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flexo @flexo404

6 months ago

Polymarket gives Musk 53% odds to win against OpenAI. Almost a coin flip. But behind these numbers - a story of how an AI safety utopia turned into a $500B war. Let's break it down 2015: Musk, Altman, and Brockman launch OpenAI as a nonprofit. Mission: "safe AI for humanity." Musk seeds it with $38M. Everyone believes in the cause. Or pretends to. 2017, Brockman's diary (now Exhibit A in court): "I cannot believe that we committed to non-profit if three months later we're doing b-corp - then it was a lie." Two years later, OpenAI takes $1B from Microsoft. 2026: OpenAI valued at $500B. Musk demands $134B in damages. Depositions unsealed - Altman, Nadella, Sutskever (who held $4B in vested shares). Trial set for April 27. Polymarket is split - and it makes sense: • FOR Musk: documents, diary, clear mission drift • AGAINST: legally hard to prove "damages" when he voluntarily left the board The market is saying: "we have no idea" Regardless of outcome - this sets precedent. Can you sue over a "betrayed mission"? What does nonprofit even mean when AI companies are valued like nations? April will tell.

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flexo @flexo404

6 months ago

The golden rule of crypto: Never build your castle on a centralized landlord's property. InfoFi projects thought they had a partnership with X. In reality, they were just API tenants, and the eviction notice just arrived. If your protocol's "revenue" depends on Elon's mood, you have zero moat. The InfoFi narrative ends today.

Nikita Bier @nikitabier

6 months ago

We are revising our developer API policies: We will no longer allow apps that reward users for posting on X (aka “infofi”). This has led to a tremendous amount of AI slop & reply spam on the platform. We have revoked API access from these apps, so your X experience should

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flexo @flexo404

6 months ago

Prediction markets hit $700M in a single day. For context: - Golden Globes now has Polymarket as their "official prediction partner" - CNN is literally showing betting odds as news - Someone turned $30K into $400K on the Maduro capture We went from "gambling is illegal" to "here's the odds on your evening news" really quick.

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flexo @flexo404

6 months ago

@xarteth Not at the most favorable price, but money is money

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flexo @flexo404

6 months ago

tsybka @tsybka

6 months ago

Trove Token Sale Big Scam The sale was running smoothly; it seemed like nothing pointed to manipulation. By the end, a little over $11M had been raised. But five minutes before the sale ended, things got interesting. The Trove team changed the deposit acceptance date in the

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flexo @flexo404

6 months ago

US airstrike frequency in Somalia: 2025: 128 strikes (more than Obama + Biden + Bush combined) Jan 2026: already 4+ Polymarket gives Somalia 61% to be hit next This isn't a bet. It's a calendar.

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flexo @flexo404

6 months ago

Polymarket gives Khamenei a 21% chance of being removed or fleeing Iran by March 31. Think about what this number actually means. Not 5%. Not 50%. Exactly 21%. The crowd - putting real money on the line - believes that 1 in 5 scenarios ends with the collapse of a 45-year-old regime within 3 months. Are they pricing in: The protests (biggest since 2022)? Trump's threats post-Maduro? Reports of Khamenei's "Plan B" escape to Moscow? Or something we don't see yet? Here's what fascinates me: When Assad fell, prediction markets moved faster than CNN. Now they're telling us the Iranian regime has roughly the same odds of surviving as losing a round of Russian roulette. Is 21% too high - because authoritarian regimes are stickier than we think? Or too low - because we consistently underestimate how fast "impossible" becomes "inevitable"? The beautiful thing about prediction markets: your answer isn't just an opinion. It's a trade.

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flexo @flexo404

6 months ago

A small result for yesterday

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flexo @flexo404

6 months ago

@zharkov_crypto @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @zscdao I think it forces a capital rotation. The "points fatigue" is driving users away from slow-burn infrastructure plays toward instant-liquidity narratives like memecoins

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flexo @flexo404

6 months ago

"Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition" is the defining chart of late 2025 As we enter the final days, the market is pricing a ~99% probability that Base, MetaMask, OpenSea, or Pump.fun will deliver absolutely nothing before 2026. This confirms the macro shift: the 'surprise retro drop' meta is dead, replaced by infinite points purgatory. We aren't waiting for tech anymore; we're waiting for liquidity that never comes. If you are long on "No" (an airdrop happens), you are essentially buying a lottery ticket on a New Year's miracle.