fbmethodology @fbmethodology

@ConceptScouting yup

Kieran Maguire @KieranMaguire

3 months ago

Football does not have a revenue earning problem, it has a cost control problem. Revenues in the Premier League have ⬆️by 3,233% since it started in 1992 but wage costs are up 4,429% and transfer purchases 4,138%. If you are old enough, find your pay packet from 1992 and

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@pranav_m28 I believe he’s massively overpriced based on his output last season

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Stuart Armstrong | 1.83m (6'0") | 34 | Central Midfielder If Stuart Armstrong doesn't land another Premiership move, there should be plenty of ambitious @SkyBetLeagueOne and even @SkyBetLeagueTwo clubs making the call. He seems to be flying under the radar this summer, which is surprising given what he still offers. Whether it's his age or the lack of headlines around his free agency, there's a real opportunity here for a club willing to look beyond the obvious names. Even in an Aberdeen side that produced the 4th lowest xG in the Scottish Premiership during the 2025/26 season, Armstrong still stood out for his creative output. That ability to consistently find progressive passes, create chances and dictate attacking phases hasn't disappeared just because the birth certificate says 34. He might not be a 46 game starter anymore, and that's fine. Used for 25/35 minutes or managed starts, with his profile I believe he can still completely change the rhythm of a game. Calm under pressure and more than capable of finding passes that most players at EFL level simply don't see. For a promotion chasing League One side, or an ambitious League Two club looking for that one experienced difference maker, he'd be a transformative free-agent signing.

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@FMTreq 🤝🤝

@GG_Glavan incredible insight thank you for sharing brother

@xLaFrontal fantastic looking report

Another data point I thought was worth noting from the Scottish Premiership forwards/winger dataset (900+ minutes) is the gap between actual goals and non penalty xG. The players who consistently outperform xG are valuable and important, but history/variance suggests large positive gaps are difficult to sustain year after year., especially if they are brought into a new system The opposite is going to be true for the underperformers. Players still generating quality chances despite lower goal tallies especially if shot volume and chance quality remain equal. Just something I will be keeping track of season over season @Thecultof #moneyball

@BehindTheFal On a free too, the crew w/ clever recruiting this window

@TheSecretScout_ He's one to definitely keep up with

@ConceptScouting congrats gents, top stuff being created at the min

@Myscoutnotes Learned something new, had no clue about the salary restriction for non-eu players

🇨🇭 Aurèle Amenda | 1.97m (6'6") | 22 | CB Coventry's move for Aurèle Amenda looks like one backed by the data. Reports valued the deal at around €20m (£17m) including bonuses upon completion. He's a modern, comfortable ball playing center back who is far more than just a defender. Amenda consistently gets forward to support attacks and ranks among the Bundesliga's top central defenders for through ball's and passes into the final third. The aerial profile is just as impressive. He wins an obscene number of aerial duels, giving Coventry a genuine double threat at both ends of the pitch. From a pure numbers perspective, this is a strong piece of recruitment. The key test now is whether he can carry those traits into the higher tempo and physical demands of the Premier League. If he adapts, Coventry could have a very useful profile on their hands. Great business by Coventry, with an even higher potential of generating a profit if the transfer works out.

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One trend that stood out to me from the @spfl's top 30 players for non-penalty xG/90 (900+ mins). Chance quality isn't dominated by the Old Firm (Rangers & Celtic). Hearts place 4 players inside the top 30, St. Mirren have 7, Dundee United 4, and Falkirk 5. Clubs outside the traditional contenders are consistently creating high chance shooting opportunities through their forwards and attacking zones. Underlying chance generation usually identifies the next breakout scorer before the market does, and shows exactly why stats do matter. @Thecultof #moneyball

@R_by_Ryo Thanks for bringing him to my attention! Already looks like a rising star

@EverydayMUFC22 The data/playstyles look very complementary

@Zonal_Marking Unfortunately all that travel might have caught up to them

🇮🇹 Mattia Liberali | 1.72m (5'8") | 19 | Attacking Midfielder Como have just signed Serie B's best young creator. Como have confirmed the signing of Mattia Liberali from Catanzaro for a reported €6M, activating his release clause. Going back through his film, the first thing that jumps off the screen is just how shifty he is in tight spaces. His agility and balance allow him to almost glide away from pressure, but what really impressed me is the composure he shows around the edge of the box. He consistently manipulates defenders with subtle touches before creating separation to slip through passes or open shooting lanes. For me and according to the data, he was one of Serie B's standout young creators last season. The technical quality is evident, and his decision making in the final third has really taken the next leap. I'm a huge fan of Como's recruitment philosophy. They consistently identify young players with genuine upside and the technical base to develop at a high level. Liberali looks like another bright star they've added to an already exciting squad.

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@Myscoutnotes just stumbled onto your account and really enjoy your write ups! Have a lot to learn from you

England were ultimately undone by two of the highest percentage methods of breaking down a low block. An uncontested strike from distance by Enzo Fernández, and a driven cross flashed across the face of a compact defensive line by Messi. When central space is denied, the data consistently points teams towards shots from outside the box and wide deliveries that force defenders into split second decisions. Argentina executed to perfection to England’s dismay.