蟹老板 @emphui
AI浪潮中的投资周期观察者,用数据与逻辑看清泡沫与机会 Joined March 2021-
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這台 Wiwynn 在 Computex 2026 展的東西,表面上你看是「AI compute tray」,但其實重點根本不是 tray。重點是它在解一個很物理層的問題:AI accelerator 之間 Scale-Up 要怎麼互連,才不會被銅線、距離、功耗、散熱全部卡死。 它的做法就是 Co-Packaged Optics,CPO。簡單講,Broadcom 的 optical engine 不是放在外面交換器模組裡,而是直接跟 AI accelerator / GPU 包到同一個 substrate 上。每個 tray 裡面放兩顆 AI processor,然後光訊號直接從前面板一路進到 chip-level optical engine。這就不是「網路線插一插」那種概念了,這比較像你把高速公路出口直接開到工廠門口,貨車不用再繞市區。 前面板那邊有 detachable Fiber Array Unit,FAU,Broadcom 跟 Senko 的方案都有展示。黃色的 optical fiber 負責雙向流量,特別是 Scale-Up clustering 用的。這邊很關鍵,因為 Scale-Up 不是單純把機器連起來而已,它要的是 accelerator 之間像在同一個巨大系統裡面講話。你 latency 一高、bandwidth 一卡,整個 cluster 就開始搞笑。 然後中間那一排是 External Laser Source,ELS,也是 Broadcom 的。它透過 PM fiber,把光送到 optical engine,讓 silicon photonics 可以傳資料。也就是說,資料傳輸用的是光,但光源本身被拉出來集中管理。這有點像餐廳後場:火源不要每個爐子亂裝一套,集中供應,前面只管煮,效率跟維修都比較可控。 但 CPO 爽歸爽,問題馬上來:熱。 所以這個設計直接 100% liquid cooling,fanless。不是「GPU 水冷一下」而已,是整個 tray 裡面會發熱的東西都進水冷迴路:GPU、CPU、RAM、power module,甚至 external laser source 都吃冷板。它用 system manifold 把單一入口的冷卻液分配到各個熱源,避免某些元件先吃到已經被加熱過的水。這其實很狠,因為 AI rack 以後不是誰算力強就贏,是誰能把熱穩定帶走,誰才撐得住。 電力這邊目前 demo 是 50V input。但 Wiwynn 也在看 HVDC,例如 800V 或 +/-400V。這方向不意外,因為 rack power density 一直往上衝,低壓大電流會讓線材、銅損、配電全部變成災難。你不能一邊說我要 mega Scale-Up cluster,一邊還用傳統配電方式硬撐,最後不是效率血虧,就是機櫃裡面變烤箱。 整體拓撲也很清楚:這些 compute trays 塞進 dedicated compute rack,然後透過前面板 optical patch panel 接到多個 switch racks,組成大型 Scale-Up AI cluster。 所以這台東西真正想講的是: AI 伺服器已經不是「GPU 多放幾顆」的時代了。現在卡的是 L5 連接、L3 散熱、L6 封裝、L2 電力,全部一起卡。CPO 把光拉到 chip 旁邊,liquid cooling 把熱抽走,HVDC 則是下一步要解電力配送。 credit to : youtube.com/@casperharry
@jassion767 虽然我也重胜宏,但不要这么水,你可以吹胜宏大板拿下一供了,大家只会觉得你疯了,不会觉得脑子不好使。长点脑子的都知道大板是rebin的必然选择。
你不懂业务,也不懂技术 能coding出什么好东西?别浪费那点token了,留着点拼好饭时加个蛋不香吗?
早已提示A股半导体减仓! 当前板块严重高估,彻底透支远期业绩。 现在行情只剩纯量价情绪搏杀,和投资无关。 市场不会永远买单高估值成长故事,理性早已离场。
@xianyuxiaoxiami 老爹喜欢买科技股,19年买了正邦科技,20年全家人住上了别墅。也是我相信命运的开始。
没有在这个市场长期生存下来的,短期不建议去了。更别听X中文区傻逼梭哈半导体,存储这类言论了。市场高点没法预测,产业的角度,已经进入资金博傻阶段了,投资价值基本没有。
X中文区一大片傻逼开始忽悠大家接盘大A了,阶段性顶部基本出现了。远离傻逼,拿住自己手里的现金才是最香的
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