Guy Davis (on sabbatical) @dodgingalpha
Private investor, just trying not to blow up the kids' inheritance. Blogging at Superfluous Value. superfluousvalue.substack.com Australian living in Auckland Joined August 2017-
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Does anyone know any further details here? The release was Portuguese only and not a lot of detail. Doesn't seem good for those unable to own Brazilian securities. $CBD
Does anyone know any further details here? The release was Portuguese only and not a lot of detail. Doesn't seem good for those unable to own Brazilian securities. $CBD
Going to take a break from Twitter for a while. It's gone downhill and I'm wasting a lot of time on here. Will check DMs and post if I write anything. Good luck to all😎
The bull case for commercial property landlords in Hong Kong. Swire, HK Land, Hysan, etc etc
The bull case for commercial property landlords in Hong Kong. Swire, HK Land, Hysan, etc etc
10 Holding companies in Emerging markets.. which has the best management? CK Hutchison 🇭🇰 First Pacific 🇭🇰 Swire Pacific 🇭🇰 Jardine Matheson 🇸🇬 Jardine Cycle and Carriage 🇸🇬 Boustead Singapore 🇸🇬 Remgro 🇿🇦 Bidvest 🇿🇦 Cosan 🇧🇷 Mahindra and Mahindra 🇮🇳 Maybe ... Cosan or Remgro?
Insightful comment from @Wubbebos $PBR
I wrote some high-level thoughts about $PBR 's special dividend miss. You can find it in my bio.
$GALP $RIG $TDW $VAL $TTE $SHEL $SEI.V $ODL.OL Deepwater Update, March 9, 2024. "Beyond Guyana: Namibia's Harsher Waters More Rich in Oil?" (1) $CVX $53B acquisition of $HES in October 2023, which includes Hess’ crucial 30% stake in Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block, is contested…
So good
Grant Isaac directly setting the record straight yesterday with "four really important facts about Cameco." Dispelling a lot of myths/FUD you may have seen on this site after the $CCJ 4Q call.
I was recently interviewed by the folks at Pyramids and Pagodas, a substack that aims to cover underreported trends and companies, primarily in Asia and the Middle East. The interview, summary, and links to show notes can be found here: pyramidsandpagodas.com/p/ep-6-finding…
I found a nice tactic when black sacrificed on f4 thinking they would fork my Q and R.
Find someone who loves you as much as $BABA loves plunging back through $70 HKD.
If any other asset had the last few days #gold has, it would be massive new. But it's just crickets. I don't think it's right to say gold is hated, it's just pure indifference.
@ReturnsJourney @brandsttt4 @dodgingalpha @GlobalStockPick If you are interested in quality hotel assets. I think Great Eagle Holdings $0041.hk is one of the greatest companies. Basically their hotel assets can justify their entire EV and more, they own Langham in Europe, US, Canada, Australia and China.
Sorry HK value victims, after several years of monitoring I'm now in CK Hutchison $1.HK , which means it's going a lot lower.
Had some decent results from Saipem $SPM.MI for once. Law of averages I suppose. Still well below asset replacement cost.
Had some decent results from Saipem $SPM.MI for once. Law of averages I suppose. Still well below asset replacement cost.
Just another day with cheap stocks getting cheaper in Hong Kong.
Costs to enroll a 10 yr old in club football in Brisbane: Rego- $520 Insurance- $80 + Boots and kit
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3K Followers 182 Following THE MODERN INVESTING NEWSLETTER| Undervalued stocks | Tweets are no financial advise | Commodities |@dodgingalpha I'm on the investor's newsletter; you can find the English version below the Portuguese. I sold my remaining small position at ~0,60$. Not sure whether the drop had to do with this, because the volume on NYSE is small compared with Bovespa & BRL was weak. rad.cvm.gov.br/ENET/frmDownlo…
@dodgingalpha They will keep the ADR & you will be able to receive dividends, but I'm not sure if you will be able to trade it. Possibly OTC, but if they cancel the ADR in the future, it will be liquidated & the underlying shares will be sold. Not worth it for me.
The bull case for commercial property landlords in Hong Kong. Swire, HK Land, Hysan, etc etc
@dodgingalpha I just wish they spend more in drilling oil rather than renewable, then at least money wont be wasted🤣
@dodgingalpha @dlitten4 It depends on your holding timeframe. It could be a value trap near term.
$PBR Sold off on lack of Q4 special dividends, but fears of state appropriation were unfounded. With P/E <4, $24B profit, 19% div, clear policies, PBR is undervalued. As narrative shifts, it may reach 9-10x earnings. Full writeup by @dodgingalpha
@dodgingalpha @KiwiPMI MC very near value of their holdings. Minimal conglomerate discount. Why not just buy your favorite pieces? $J36.SGX
That doesn’t look very magnificent anymore…still the most expensive stock given the margin pressure and cyclical business $TSLA
"[N]ow that almost every market guru has walked back their recession call, wouldn’t it be just typical if the US economy now slides into recession?" -@albertedwards99
I opened a position yesterday morning in $ONON The stock was down 16% after reporting earnings Today my holding is up 15% overall This market is getting crazier by the day
Everyone wants to buy low, sell high. But how many investors think about what this actually means in terms of market sentiment? At the low, almost everyone is telling you to sell. At the high, almost everyone is telling you to buy. You have to do the opposite. Not easy!
👀 recommend reading.
$LBTYA / $LBTYK failed to deliver the “shock and awe” that management had been talking up. Worse, ‘24 guidance for its Virgin Media O2 business was not great, leading shares to give up most of their 2024 gains today. The good news is that Liberty is going to list and spin-off…
I think ideas like this are generally the way to play China. Find companies with limited economic exposure and decent corporate governance and isolate the risk to just that Taiwan tail risk (which probably fucks the entire global market anyway).
Is that even if A and B don’t come into effect, you can get fucked over by C and D. That’s where a company like First Pacific is very attractive. With no exposure to the Chinese economy and regulatory risk, and a large dividend yield B and C aren’t issues, while D is mitigated.
I think the China discount is broken down into a few different factors. There’s A. Taiwan invasion, B. Regulatory risk, C. A generally terrible economic situation (real estate debt, manufacturing leaving and ageing population) and D. Generally poor corporate governance. The issue
@dodgingalpha Cosan invested in RUMO, a agriculture freight railway, recapitalized it, modernized it and made a killing. They also bought a lot of stock when it was cheap. Now they invested in Vale, unsure about this.
10 Holding companies in Emerging markets.. which has the best management? CK Hutchison 🇭🇰 First Pacific 🇭🇰 Swire Pacific 🇭🇰 Jardine Matheson 🇸🇬 Jardine Cycle and Carriage 🇸🇬 Boustead Singapore 🇸🇬 Remgro 🇿🇦 Bidvest 🇿🇦 Cosan 🇧🇷 Mahindra and Mahindra 🇮🇳 Maybe ... Cosan or Remgro?
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