Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa @covidaotearoa
A transdisciplinary group of academic researchers and scientists working to help Aotearoa New Zealand face the Covid-19 pandemic. covid19modelling.ac.nz Aotearoa New Zealand Joined August 2021-
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We urgently need more research into prevention and treatment of LC. However, casually tossing around inflated and frankly implausible numbers like 20% of infections is misleading and, I believe, not helpful.
I'm not trying to diminish importance or seriousness of LC– if even 2% of NZers have LC that’s 100,000 ppl. And even if most of those recover in time or don't suffer longterm activity-limiting LC, that’s still a lot of ppl suffering a health condition that didn’t exist 4 yrs ago
If we look at more recent intl evidence - ONS estimated in Feb 2023 that 4.0% of adults and 1.0% of children in the UK had LC, and 2.8%/0.6% had “activity-limiting” LC, with lower rates for reinfections. ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
- The study is on ppl infected prior to Dec 2021 – entirely pre-Omicron and in many cases unvaccinated. All evidence points to a big reduction in % LC in vaccinated populations in the Omicron era. - The survey had an 11% response rate so could be significant response bias
The study provides really valuable insight into the experience of people living with LC in NZ and highlights significant health inequity and unmet need. However, it cannot be used to estimate the proportion of infections resulting in LC for several reasons.
Still sometimes seeing claims that ~20% of infections result in Long Covid based on this MOH report covidaotearoa.com/wp-content/upl… This is absolutely not the case.
We have published the modelling we produced on the effect of alternative isolation policy settings. This pair of reports were provided to the NZ Ministry of Health and the COVID-19 Modelling Government Steering Group on May 3rd. covid19modelling.ac.nz/modelling-the-…
🎧Listen: @MichaelPlankNZ and @emilynz speak to @TheDetailNZ Explainer: Will Government's winter illness plan help New Zealand avoid 'twin-demic' in 2023?newshub.co.nz/home/new-zeala…
Practicing what I preach (retweet). Planes definitely count as a few things on this list: enclosed spaces, crowded, and (sort of) public transport.
Practicing what I preach (retweet). Planes definitely count as a few things on this list: enclosed spaces, crowded, and (sort of) public transport. https://t.co/qhqJapo9yE
❄️ Winter's on. Masks on. Face masks are still an important way we can protect ourselves and others against COVID-19. He hira tonu te mau maruhā hei tiaki i a tātou anō, i ētahi atu hoki i te KOWHEORI-19.
@covidaotearoa This is the linked Action... journal.nzma.org.nz/journal-articl…
Modelling shows removing isolation could be expected to spark a new wave of cases over the next month or two, leading to an additional 23 to 85 deaths and 500 to 1700 hospitalisations. newsroom.co.nz/covid-normal-i…
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This is a good point BUT my guess (based on public sector experience) is that the report scope didn't include long covid or the long-term disability impact 🤷♀️🙃 you'll find that experts are very limited by the questions that the politicians ask (or, in this case, don't ask).
@covidaotearoa @Thoughtfulnz Your reports say nothing about the effect of these alternatives on the disability burden they will likely induce, eg through long Covid. Why is this? It seems like a major omission.
This is scary. National need to pull their heads in over absenteeism!
New from @hellohannahm: Reported Covid-19 cases in school kids more than doubled since term 2 started. (Feat @MichaelPlankNZ and @emilynz.) stuff.co.nz/national/healt…
My class already know that doors and windows will be staying open. They have to dress appropriately.
⛈️According to @MichaelPlankNZ There were likely a combination of factors at play, but the return to school – particularly coming into colder months when schools will be closing windows and doors – was a “big factor”.
@SiouxsieW @covidaotearoa @hellohannahm @MichaelPlankNZ @emilynz I've been using a CO2 monitor around my school which is also open plan but even in the specialist closed off classrooms I've not seen anything higher than 850ppm which is a relief. School buses however 😬😬😬
And I count as someone who is keen to reduce my risk of getting sick. Something that wasn’t on the list is that I’m also keen to reduce the chance that I make my family sick - especially my younger nieces and nephews and my parents.
Clean air in schools now! On you both @TeWhatuOra @EducationGovtNZ
🌬️If what’s driving transmission in classrooms is ventilation isn’t up to scratch (or it’s harder to achieve in winter), “that's something action can be taken on”.
This thread introduces the modelling work, with a link to a report on it - x.com/covidaotearoa/…
📗Today we released a report, Modelling the effect of changes to the COVID-19 case isolation policy. This report was provided to NZ Ministry of Health on 22nd March 2023, and updated 27 Mar 2023 following internal peer review. → covid19modelling.ac.nz/modelling-the-…
Completely agree. Sadly, in the absence of regulation it also becomes the option of those privileged enough to exercise the choice. Historically, relying on employers to do the right thing en masse generally has a downside.
🏡Irrespective of legal requirements, staying at home when sick is an important public health message for reducing disease transmission.
Lastly, some salient points here from Nikki Turner in this January explainer around immune memory from prior boosting nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-th…
@Record_Factory @covidaotearoa @GiorgiaVatt @RachelleBinny @hendysh @emilynz @droneale @MichaelPlankNZ @royalsociety (We can carry out decision making and planning under uncertainty without knowing a precise point estimate but rather a range of plausible values. Eg informally we can hope for the best but plan for the worst etc. Modelling should not provide false precision, hence bands)
Thanks to Dion O’Neale for the excellent level of side-eye being levelled here 😂
@droneale @SiouxsieW @Boz23 @GrumpyYetAmusin I don’t think they made any sort of correction or announcement about the change of advice though, so Healthline, GPs and nurses etc are still giving out incorrect advice 😣
Omg my #SecretSantaNZ2022 knocked it out of the park! Special Christmas beers from my favourite microbrewers AND a special edition glass that I’d been eying up AND a magazine I hadn’t heard of but which is already distracting me from my breakfast 🥰🥰🥰
@Jamienzherald @droneale @covidaotearoa *transmission/growth rate/Reff increased 20%, not cases 😜
@simon_faire @covidaotearoa Logic says that faecal shedding is related to symptomatic infection. There’s no evidence that reinfections would result in less shedding. However, increased use of antivirals could reduce faecal shedding and potentially skew the numbers. Whether the impact is material 🤷♀️
@marknkennard @covidaotearoa @otago has made a detailed video explainer here that you might find helpful otago.ac.nz/biochemistry/r…
@marknkennard @covidaotearoa Unfortunately RATs are not as sensitive as PCR because there is no amplification step, and they can take a day or two at the start of your infectious period to return a positive result. But they are really pretty good.
@marknkennard @covidaotearoa RATs detect specific pieces of protein from the COVID-19 virus. These pieces of virus protein are only present when you have live virus where you swabbed now or very recently (they get broken down quickly). A positive RAT result means you are infected with COVID-19.
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