CLEATZ 🇺🇸 🏈 🏀 ⚾️ @cleatzdata

Anyone surprised by this?

Lisa Scherzer @lisascherzer

3 hours ago

Bank of America note on prediction markets: Kalshi held the number #1 spot in the Apple App store all weekend. Kalshi had ~65% download share among prediction market operators, followed by Polymarket at 16%, DraftKings ~7.5%, Robinhood and FanDuel at 5%.

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Novig is not playing around. Love it!

Lydia Beyoud @ElleBeyoud

3 hours ago

News: Novig, one of the newest CFTC-licensed sports prediction markets, has hired Elie Mishory, former Kalshi GC and ex-DOGE staffer, as its chief regulatory and legal affairs officer.

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This is why the NBA is on the back side of the mountain. Ridiculous! Long, slow slide for a league that signed a TV rights contract that it will never see again.

Shams Charania @ShamsCharania

22 hours ago

BREAKING: Trae Young intends to sign a four-year, approximately $212 million deal to stay with the Washington Wizards, with a player option in Year 4, sources tell ESPN. The four-time NBA All-Star declined his $49M player option for a long-term commitment ahead of free agency.

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Watching the NFL in the 80’s and 90’s was a vibe….

FB_Helmet_Guy @FB_Helmet_Guy

16 hours ago

Miss this NFL. Nothing like John Madden and Pat Summerall on the call, outdoor games on grass in the elements and aggressive, physical football.

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MLB Bullpen Fatigue board is live, and a few pens are flashing real stress. The most taxed bullpen in baseball right now is the White Sox. Chicago sits No. 1 on the fatigue board at 310, driven by 451 pitches, 9 arms used, and 17 total appearances over the recent window. The bigger takeaway from the 5-day view: this wasn’t one blowup day. It’s been a grind — 79, 88, 104, 107, and 73 pitches. Right behind them are the Padres at 301, and that’s another pen worth watching closely. San Diego has logged 389 pitches, 16 appearances, and 2 back-to-back arms, with the 5-day pattern showing stress on both ends of the span: 112 pitches, then a breather, then 74, 94, and 109. That’s the kind of usage profile that can show up late in games. A few other bullpens are sitting in the danger zone: Athletics — 257 Marlins — 257 Blue Jays — 250 Angels — 249 Diamondbacks — 246 Twins — 239 The Marlins may be one of the sneakier fatigue spots on the board. Their raw score ties for third, but the detail matters: 18 appearances, 7 arms used, and 4 back-to-back spots. That’s the type of bullpen where leverage options can start getting thin in a hurry.

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⚾️MLB Best Bets for Monday June 22 At Coors today, the wind flips back to blowing out at +14%, which means the run environment stays dangerous, and the power conditions finally line up with the park. That puts Coors right back at the center of the HR board, with Hunter Goodman, Willson Contreras, and Wilyer Abreu all sitting in one of the day’s cleanest model-and-conditions clusters. Goodman checks in at 32.3% HR with a +270 number, while Contreras brings a bigger payout profile at +350. There’s another strong power environment, too: 💪Nationals Park is blowing out at +12.9%, and the market has already reacted. The clearest total signal on the slate is Phillies @ Nationals Over 10, where the number steamed from 9.5 to 10 and took 100% of the handle on the over. That’s one of the purest “money + weather agree” spots on the entire board. That same game also keeps Kyle Schwarber very live. He sits at 29.6% HR with wind helping and a +9.0% Kalshi EV profile, making him one of the better combined-signal HR looks on the day. ➡️Other top HR names on the board: • Shohei Ohtani — 33.1% HR, tops the slate, though Target Field reads neutral on wind • Byron Buxton — 31.4% HR, another Target Field power bat, plus a +7.0% Kalshi EV tag • Hunter Goodman — 32.3% HR at Coors with the wind now helping • Willson Contreras — 28.3% HR in the same Colorado tailwind setup • Kyle Schwarber — 29.6% HR with Nationals Park wind blowing out On the sharp side, the board points most clearly to Rays -1.5. That’s one of the cleanest run-line signals on the slate, with sharp money piling onto Tampa Bay against Kansas City. The slate also shows support for Phillies -1.5, but that one’s a little messier overall, which makes the Rays side the cleaner sharp-money expression. 💰On the strikeout board: • Tyler Phillips Over 6.4 K is the model’s top pick and biggest edge on the slate • Eric Lauer Over 4.3 K is a smaller over lean • Michael Wacha Under 3.8 K is one of the rare K-under looks 🎟️HR Lottery Ticket is absolutely in play: ① JJ Bleday HR +383 ② Samuel Basallo HR +432 ③ Seiya Suzuki HR +420 That 3-legger pays +13262, so a $10 ticket returns $1,336. Only catch: the Suzuki leg sits in the Citi Field game with a 95% rain risk, so if you play the longshot build, that’s the one weather flag to know. One more note worth highlighting: yesterday the NRFI model closed 8-5 (62%), and the Strong leans went 3-for-3. That’s real momentum coming into today’s board. cleatz.com/mlb-best-bets-…

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MLB Monday "Movers"

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⚾️MLB Odds & Props "Most Likely" Board for June 22

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One major remains for the golf season 🏆2026 Open Championship 154th Edition · July 16–19, 2026 Royal Birkdale Golf Club No surprise to see Wyndham Clark's odds improve massively after another U.S. Open win.

My family knows why I love the Summer solstice….starting tomorrow we begin to lose daylight and that’s means football season is around the corner!

Matt Devitt @MattDevittWX

2 days ago

Happy 1st day of Summer and longest day of the year in terms of daylight hours. Enjoy it now because starting tomorrow we gradually start losing daylight! 🌞

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⚾️MLB Best Bets for Sunday - June 21 This slate is a really good example of why raw HR board numbers are only step one. At first glance, the headline is Coors. Hunter Goodman (35.1% HR) and Brandon Lowe (33.1% HR) are the two hottest bats on the entire home run board, and both sit in Colorado. But the catch is a big one: Coors has 16 mph wind blowing in. That creates a clean model-vs-conditions conflict, so even with those monster raw HR numbers, this is more of a fade-the-environment spot than a chase-the-price spot. That pushes the real action elsewhere, especially to the sharp run-line board. 📊The clearest money signal on the full slate is Astros -1.5, taking 99% of the handle on just 24% of bets. That is the kind of split that immediately jumps off the page. The board also shows additional sharp run-line support on the Rays and White Sox, giving you four total sharp RL signals on the day. If you want cleaner power environments, Dodger Stadium and Citizens Bank Park are where the model and the air line up best. Dodger Stadium grades as the top HR park on the slate at +7.8%, and Shohei Ohtani is one of the best aligned power bats there at 32.1% HR. Citizens Bank Park is next at +6.4%, which keeps Kyle Schwarber very live at 29.6% HR. Yordan Alvarez is also a strong name on the board at 32.6% HR in roofed Minute Maid, where weather is taken out of the equation and Kalshi shows a positive edge on the YES. ➡️On the strikeout board, the model is aggressive: • Andrew Alvarez Over 5.5 K is a Top Pick with a +1.96 K projection edge • Kai-Wei Teng Over 7.5 K is also a Top Pick and owns the highest projected K total on the slate • Slade Cecconi Over 4.8 K is another solid lean in the same Astros game ➡️The NRFI board is loaded too: There are 3 Strong NRFI plays on the slate, with Nationals–Rays and White Sox–Tigers both showing strong no-run-first-inning profiles. Nationals–Rays stands out especially well in a roofed environment, which is always nice when you don’t want weather noise entering the equation. 💰And yes — the HR Lottery Ticket is absolutely in play today: ① Jordan Walker HR +373 ② Ryan Ward HR +445 ③ Julio Rodríguez HR +420 That 3-legger pays +13305, so a $10 ticket returns about $1,340. If you want the full board, model leans, sharp splits, NRFI notes, and the longshot build, it’s all here: cleatz.com/mlb-best-bets-…

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💰World Cup public betting splits are live, and Sunday’s board is mostly favorite-heavy, but the sharpest tells are hiding in the handle gaps. The biggest public favorite is Spain vs Saudi Arabia. ⚽️Spain is sitting at -1000, with 93% of bets and 77% of handle. - Kalshi has Spain at 89% to win - Polymarket is even higher at 90%. T 👀But the more interesting signal is on Saudi Arabia. They are only getting 7% of bets, but 23% of handle, and their moneyline handle has moved from 0% to 23% since open. ⚽️The cleanest favorite signal is probably Belgium vs Iran. Belgium is -235 with 92% of bets and 93% of handle — public and money aligned. - Kalshi and Polymarket both have Belgium at 69%, with the draw around 20–21% and Iran around 12–13%. No real split, no major disagreement, just a market saying Belgium is the rightful favorite. ⚽️ The sneaky split is Uruguay vs Cape Verde. Uruguay is -220, taking 86% of bets but only 70% of handle. Cape Verde is only getting 14% of tickets, yet 30% of handle. - Kalshi and Polymarket both price Uruguay at 68%, draw at 23%, Cape Verde at 11%. That is the classic profile of a favorite still expected to win, but with larger-money resistance showing up on the dog. ⚽️Then there is New Zealand vs Egypt, where the board is cleaner. Egypt is -170, with 82% of bets and 71% of handle. Kalshi has Egypt at 61%, Polymarket at 62%, with the draw at 24% and New Zealand around 16–17%. Egypt’s price moved from -135 to -170, but handle actually fell from 100% to 71%, so this looks more like early steam that has settled into a more balanced market. Track the full World Cup public betting board here: cleatz.com/public-betting…

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Not having the U.S. Open finish at 7:30 PM EST tonight and a USA World Cup game beginning at 8 pm feels like a massive miss for Father's Day.

⛳️The U.S. Open leaderboard has turned into a Wyndham Clark control room. Clark sits alone at -7, six shots clear of the nearest group, and the market is treating this like his tournament to lose: - Win probability: 71% - Kalshi: 72% - Polymarket: 72% - Open Round 4 odds: -303 That is a massive pre-final-round position. The model and both prediction markets are almost perfectly aligned, which usually means there is not much “mispriced favorite” debate. Clark has the lead, the cushion, and the market trust. 📊The chase starts at -1, and the biggest name is obvious: Scottie Scheffler — T2, -1 Win probability: 9.1% Kalshi: 13% Polymarket: 13% Open Round 4 odds: +550 If there is a true chase ticket, it is Scottie. The model is more cautious than the markets, but Kalshi and Poly are both giving him a real puncher’s chance despite the six-shot gap. That is basically the “elite talent can still go nuclear” tax. ➡️The rest of the T2 group is much thinner: ① Sahith Theegala — 2.6% win, +3000 ② Tom Kim — 2.2% win, +3000 ③ Sam Stevens — 2.1% win, +3500 Those are alive, but they need both pieces: a low round and a Clark stumble. ➡️The next tier: Xander Schauffele — E, T6, 3.1% win, +2500 Sam Burns — E, T6, 2.4% win, +3500 Tommy Fleetwood — +1, T10, 1.3% win, +5500 Matt Fitzpatrick — +1, T10, 1.1% win, +6000 Collin Morikawa — +1, T10, 0.8% win, +6600 The most interesting non-Scottie name might be Xander. He is still seven back, but his win probability sits above every player except Clark and Scheffler. If you are looking for a longshot that still has enough ceiling to matter, Xander is the cleanest of that group. Full board: cleatz.com/live-golf-lead…

Happy Father's Day, gents! MLB "most likely" board and top movers for Sunday.

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Sunday looks to be the best weather day of the U.S. Open this week at Shinnecock.

11 more Saturdays⏳

Almost there guys....

If you are not a believer in Wyndham Clark, there is a ton of value on the board cleatz.com/live-golf-lead…

The wind continues at Shinnecock today for the U.S. Open.