Celina @celinalata

Apparently breakfast had to match the pink mood today🎀 A little color, a little sweetness, and a delicious start to the morning

@scottastevenson The playbook that worked in a near zero rate world may not work anymore. When cash and bonds actually pay, the hurdle rate for every risk asset gets higher

If yields stay elevated, the real question is how long equities can keep absorbing the pressure. What breaks first, valuations or yields?

Charlie Bilello @charliebilello

a week ago

The US Bond Market (Bloomberg Agg) was down 2.6% in September. In the past 30 years, only 5 months had a worse return: 1) September 2022: -4.3% 2) April 2022: -3.8% 3) July 2003: -3.4% 4) August 2022: -2.8% 5) March 2022: -2.8% For the stock market, losing 2.6% in a month is a

40 54 304 60K 65

Greece 🇬🇷

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Blue skies, warm sunshine, and a perfect little afternoon

Good bread. Slow noon. Happy heart.

Some images don't just capture a moment. They capture a feeling, a memory, and a story that words could never fully explain

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

A brilliant mind can solve extraordinary problems, yet still struggle with the simplest parts of life. Sometimes, the greatest discoveries happen within ourselves

hell of a monday. congrats if ur in the same boat. what a time to be in the agentic AI / CPU biz. $AMZN $INTC $AMD $META

Finally tried this Korean spot in Fort Lee! The pork trotters are worth coming back for, and the bibimbap is HUGE! So good I practically had to roll myself out haha

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

A little taste of a proper British afternoon tea today. After a long day of shopping, it felt so good to sit down, sip some tea, and let everything slow down for a while

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Wild 24 hours for AI and lots of different proposals have been made. TLDR; the only *tangible* new fact is that OpenAI and Anthropic are going to have embedded 3rd party evaluators from unknown organizations with Dario floating METR as a possibility. Having 3rd party evaluators is smart as there is no Section 230 style liability shield for model outputs and showing a “duty of care” will be important in future litigation. Several internet companies might have gone bankrupt without Section 230 so limiting liability really matters. There are minimal investment implications from this single new fact, but I do think that for anyone who wants a “smoother for longer” cycle then most constraints are good: wafers, watts, real rates and spreads. Excessive regulation is a different matter but I don’t think we are anywhere close to this even if the vector changed over the last 24 hours. To summarize the events: Dario made the most maximalist proposal of the weekend: embedded 3rd party evaluators, a national regulatory regime for models beyond a certain capability/ingredient threshold, a broad international regulatory pact between democracies, stricter limits on compute/distillation for China and then a different international regulatory regime that encompasses China. Before there is a national regulatory regime, he wants a Sherman act waiver so that Anthropic can safely coordinate with OpenAI and other frontier labs without antitrust fears. TBF, this latest proposal is much less maximalist than some of his prior proposals like “Policy on the AI Exponential,” where he advocated for an FAA for AI. I believe he is sincere in his beliefs. And despite all the protestations, all of this would also probably be good for his business over the long-term. Sam agreed that embedded 3rd party evaluators were a good idea and stated they would implement them. Again, this is smart as should help limit future liability. Elon said “Dario is right” and later specified that “Dario is right that there should be some oversight. Peer review of AI by competitors is the right way to start this off.” This would be a MPAA like self-regulatory structure for AI with regular calls between the labs plus a process where each new model is evaluated for safety by competitors for a 1-2 week period before being released. That is *wildly* different from Dario’s proposal and in-line with what David Sacks has been proposing. Elon also stated that nothing was going to slow down open-weight models. Demis said that Dario’s essay was a “step in the right direction.” Dario also said that he was also open to Demis’ idea of a FINRA like self-regulatory structure as part of his proposal. David Sacks had a thoughtful post where he said that Dario and Sam should pace unilaterally, called the antitrust waiver a cartel request and denied that METR was truly independent given their ties to Anthropic. Sriram Krishnan, former White House AI advisor, noted that it would be important to have the 3rd party evaluators come from independent organizations that are not affiliated with any lab, which is basically an indirect statement about the relationship between METR and Anthropic which Sacks was explicit about. Clem from Hugging Face said they were open to being a neutral 3rd party evaluator, which is interesting especially if Jensen was consulted before that post. Alexander Wang from Meta noted that alignment would be an increasing focus going forward. An executive order seems likely after all this and the language in this EO is going to be really important. It is possible to democratize and distribute AI broadly and safely without centralizing it in the hands of a few corporations who might each become more powerful than any single government. I do not want a few humans in control of intelligence. I want us all to have our own intelligences that reflect our own values and human variation in all of its richness. Intelligence distribution over intelligence centralization FTW.

My skin has been so dry lately. I’ve gone through so many products and honestly, nothing seems to make much of a difference

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next