1. This is both an excellent and difficult question, but I'll attempt to answer it. When I'm asked to forecast by corporate clients, I usually give three scenarios: base-case, best-case, worst-case.
1. This is both an excellent and difficult question, but I'll attempt to answer it. When I'm asked to forecast by corporate clients, I usually give three scenarios: base-case, best-case, worst-case.
2. Base-case: deployment of 2nd generation vaccines (higher efficacy, not sterilising) by first quarter of 2025, low uptake. As such, continual waves of acute infection and attendant sequelae. Those who can avail of 2nd gen vaccines will have ⬆️ protection from infection.
@brownecfm It'll be worst case. Second gen vaccines are nowhere near being available and Pfizer lobbyists will slow roll them. Vaccine uptake will remain low. People think COVID is a cold and endemic.
@brownecfm What do you see re mask use in healthcare settings?
@brownecfm The quality of public health messaging will be the key influencer on outcomes. Unfortunately the current policy seems to be to ignore or deny by omitting to mention Covid & force ill kids to school etc, which is ethically appalling. Good leadership is required at all levels.