brianlin @brianlin
Joined March 2008-
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@TeslaBoomerMama Great breakdown. One gap: a fixed ratio locks the stocks in lockstep — if Tesla scales Robotaxi before close, holders can't capture it. Fix: lock the price, not the ratio. A forward + CVR lets each side float on its own value 👇 x.com/brianlin/statu…
1/ Building on @JOBhakdi’s fixed-ratchet idea for a SpaceX–Tesla merger. The flaw: it pegs everything to SpaceX’s price. A SpaceX rally overpays Tesla. A joint dip wipes SpaceX holders. A Tesla breakout can’t be captured. It tracks 1 company. The deal is about 2.
@herbertong @JOBhakdi Exactly — the exchange ratio is a symptom; structure is the disease. The "merger of equals" risk is real but fixable. I wrote up a forward + CVR + termination-fee structure that lets both stocks float on their own value to close 👇 x.com/brianlin/statu…
1/ Building on @JOBhakdi’s fixed-ratchet idea for a SpaceX–Tesla merger. The flaw: it pegs everything to SpaceX’s price. A SpaceX rally overpays Tesla. A joint dip wipes SpaceX holders. A Tesla breakout can’t be captured. It tracks 1 company. The deal is about 2.
@ICannot_Enough Wrote this up — it solves exactly the problem you're raising. A CVR lets Tesla holders keep all upside above the deal price, so they're never capped below Tesla's real value. x.com/brianlin/statu…
1/ Building on @JOBhakdi’s fixed-ratchet idea for a SpaceX–Tesla merger. The flaw: it pegs everything to SpaceX’s price. A SpaceX rally overpays Tesla. A joint dip wipes SpaceX holders. A Tesla breakout can’t be captured. It tracks 1 company. The deal is about 2.
5/ Full memo below (4 pages), incl. the Texas governance angle. ($2T/$50B are round illustrations, not proposed terms — the structure works at any figures.) Sharing as a contribution, not gospel. Curious what @JOBhakdi, @TeslaBoomerMama & @herbertong think. Open to pushback 👇
1/ Building on @JOBhakdi’s fixed-ratchet idea for a SpaceX–Tesla merger. The flaw: it pegs everything to SpaceX’s price. A SpaceX rally overpays Tesla. A joint dip wipes SpaceX holders. A Tesla breakout can’t be captured. It tracks 1 company. The deal is about 2.
4/ No premium changes hands — it's one negotiated merger agreement; the option language is just the lens for valuing the terms. It also fits Texas law cleanly: post-redomicile, a disinterested-committee path can cleanse a controlled deal without a minority vote.
3/ The fix: let both float. Three standard tools, one contract: • Forward sale at a fixed price, settled in stock via VWAP (like the Cursor deal) • A CVR, so Tesla keeps ALL its upside • A termination fee for a clean SpaceX exit Both stocks trade on their own value to close.
2/ Why it breaks: • SpaceX rises → Tesla "deemed" worth more for no reason • Both fall → SpaceX overpays, diluting its holders • Tesla breaks out → fixed price can't capture it, vote fails It watches one variable when the deal is about two.
peak euphoria: “Today will likely be the largest SPX call volume sessions of all time. Calls have made up 70% of every option traded” - Goldman
@TeslaBoomerMama @jonboiPa After you RSVP are you supposed to get a confirmation email? I got the invite, RSVPed. But then nothing since then. Are there additional details?
@kandkbryce @niccruzpatane I didn’t see a place to upload either. I RSVPed but I didn’t get any other email confirmation. Did anyone else get an additional email confirmation with details?
@lexfridman Breaks my brain too, you are not alone. Also that part about entropy being the arrow of time. How are they interconnected if time is an illusion?
@elonmusk @farzyness @MartinViecha @Sen_JoeManchin @POTUS You can create a software range and performance limited model Y for 55k that can be later upgraded to full range and performance.
@lexfridman Simple is better than complicated until it is not. Or put simply by Einstein “Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
@VolatilityVIX Just that the reputation of Bitcoin itself shouldn’t be tarnished by the actions of bad CEOs. Though, it probably will be through association.
@VolatilityVIX Though, to be fair, it was the “institution” of centralized exchanges that failed us. Self custody and decentralized crypto/exchanges has been generally fine (as in, has not gone to zero).
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