Blizzard of 0z @blizzardof0z
Model hugger, wishcaster, non-professional weather enthusiast, backyard storm chaser❄️🌪⛈ Boonies, MD Joined July 2009-
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You know that the atmosphere bounced back when there was a 1,000 j/kg SBCAPE jump within 3hrs. Things are popping off. #KYwx #INwx #OHwx #severewx
Net Zero fail: A single hail storm in Damon, Texas, destroys thousands of acres of solar panels. Is it really wise to make ourselves dependent on expensive energy infrastructure that can be rendered permanently useless by a bout of bad weather?
Worth keeping an eye on this for the mountains of ski country later next weekend. Very marginal conditions but if this low undercuts there's a shot enough cold gets pulled in and some HP can build over the top causing snow. Only silver lining I can find.
The CFS which has been correct the past few storms is showing a massive snowstorm for the whole northeast and mid-Atlantic and even the Carolinas march 3-4.
Mental health experts could end "climate anxiety" by not talking about "climate anxiety" and by telling teachers to stop pushing climate alarmism. They advise instead: Tell kids "things are bad, things are getting worse..." They're minting patients. edweek.org/leadership/a-t…
Pattern starting storm system will fly through late weekend into early next week. After that we watch a timeframe closer to the 18th-20th. This could work for someone but there is no details. As we move fully into the last 7-8 days of February, the pattern continues to look…
Major coast to coast beast brewing next weekend as powerful ( okay lets use all the terms they will use to weaponize it) atmospheric river pineapple express storm from the bowels of Hades crashes California , heads east, may be a big snowmaker plains to mid atlantic/Carolinas
The ECMWF-Ext is remarkably keen on an impressive cold/storm period in mid February.. am looking forward to this!
Bigger potential for Friday into Saturday. Love the look again today from the GFS. You can tell me it’s over 5 days out that’s fine I know but this has big “ potential ” much more than Tuesday . Again follow along if you want if not move along that’s fine I’m getting excited.
500mb height anomalies & height anomaly analog dates from the Jan 8 00z Canadian Ensemble Mean for days 6-10, centered on Jan 16th. 9 of the 10 analog dates are from El Ninos and 4 of the 10 dates are from 3 of the all-time great Greenland Blocking winters (59-60, 68-69, 09-10)
Growing consensus among long range model guidance for high latitude blocking to redevelop (Greenland High regime) by the second week of January. This is occurring in tandem with building support for a SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) event by 1/10.
Ensemble mean at the 10th percentile of model climate & almost all members below the model climate mean in the week of December 19-26... 👀👀👀
Once again, I decided to have a little fun in Python 🐍 today & created some Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar CONUS surface temp & 500mb height anomaly probability + mean composites for El Niños since 1855 using NOAA's 20th Century Reanalysis! Unlike the previous set of composites I showed in…
Holy Canadian Warming Batman! Clearly the ECMWF weeklies read yesterday's blog and are now full in on a Canadian Warming second week of December. Looking at this image I think that anyone can understand where the name comes from.
El Niño is no longer East-Based! The migration of the warmest SST anomalies from Nino Region 1+2(East Pacific) to Nino Region 3.4 (central Pacific) has completed. This is what I predicted would happen in my Winter Forecast (pinned to the top of my page) and is a crucial factor…
Pattern looks variable moving forward with one stout cold shot to open November and another signal gaining more weight for around the 9th-11th. Ensemble members have began to indicate a storm that could support Appalachian snowfall around that period, but we’ll chalk it up to…
A reminder of NOAA's winter forecasts and what actually happened that winter
A reminder of NOAA's winter forecasts and what actually happened that winter https://t.co/fOfjC34O1z
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253 Followers 214 Following I love the weather and fishing. I live in Massachusetts and I’m in middle school so I don’t storm chase but I make up for it by staring at radar for hours.@blizzardof0z @TonyPannWBAL @WeathermanV Absolutely. In 2078, Euro huggers will still be reminding us how it nailed Sandy.
@blizzardof0z And that whole drought err MEGA drought thing is never discussed :)
Growing consensus among long range model guidance for high latitude blocking to redevelop (Greenland High regime) by the second week of January. This is occurring in tandem with building support for a SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) event by 1/10.
@blizzardof0z @ARKangel0615 That was my tongue-in-cheek joke at the time. ;)
Just saying, the storm signal that's been constantly showing up on deterministic models and ensembles on Dec 28th-29th is what I would like to consider as "the pattern-changing storm," because after this storm is when things start to turn around.
I haven't had the chance to make a snowfall map this winter, so I've decided to make one for this Monday's storm. The key is going to be where that rain/rain line sets up. DC looks to remain on the cold side of it, but things could still change. Stay tuned!
How do I teach my students to eliminate filler words from their speech? MWA HA HA HA HA 😈 (My methods for just about everything are unconventional, but they get results… 🤠)
TEMPERATURES TRENDING *COLDER* CAD signature is showing nicely on the latest NAM. Models show longer-duration snow event Thu afternoon over PA/NY/NW NJ/ CT w/ mighty cold 5000ft temps. This is another colder trend that I anticipated seeing. Still like my going forecast (for now)
@GMA @Ginger_Zee Is this Human Caused Winter Weather? Where do you draw the line between normal seasonal changes in weather and extreme weather that periodically happens around the globe? The Desert Southwest just had a Nov that was, on average, 4 degrees cooler than normal. Splain Lucy… 🤷♂️
I’ll explain about this upcoming storm a bit later as I rushed this tweet, hopefully my next tweet should be more in depth :)
@LegendaryEnergy @kanyewest Hard truths friends
The multi-model agreement on this massive -NAO block setting up has been very impressive for about the past week. Getting into the 7-10 day range now and tracking the first real “cold shot” around Dec 8th-9th.
If you're a fan of wintry weather and live in the Northeast or Europe, you have to absolutely be pumped with the models highlighting a significant Greenland block setting up in December.
This is a really nice look from ensembles, especially with the west based -NAO. Confidence is getting higher and higher each day for a pattern change sometime near Mid December.
Extreme blocking over Greenland in a couple of weeks could yield a pattern that strongly resembles one from early winter 2010-2011...a very cold and snowy stretch for us. December could turn mighty interesting.
Latest run of the GFS now "sees" the colder air forecast here in the Mid Atlantic by the second week of December. 👇 Nice blocking signature near Greenland (-NAO). Is it a lock? Of course not, but the first ingredient needed to make a snowstorm is cold air. 😉 Stay tuned...❄️🚂
I promised myself I wouldn’t leave until Hurricane Season was over… but gosh… can it be over already? We’re all tired.