The renowned International Relations scholar at Tsinghua says he overestimated China’s growth, underestimated neighboring countries drifting away from Beijing towards Washington, and didn’t foresee Russia becoming North Korea’s top strategic partner. eastisread.com/p/yan-xuetong-…
@ZichenWanghere @RudyakMarina I know you’re presenting his argument, not making your own, but China’s neighbouring countries didn’t just “drift away” - they ran in fear from PRC threats, intimidation & coercion.
@ZichenWanghere My old professor was a hawk when he first returned from the US. How things change
@ZichenWanghere "Achieving an accuracy rate above the 65% benchmark confirms that the book's methodologies are scientifically robust" No, it doesn't. If you pick the right topics or make your prediction broad enough, you can easily get 100%.
@ZichenWanghere Stephen Toulmin’s warning is evergreen google.com/books/edition/…
@ZichenWanghere He was part of the hubris if the 2010s but at least he let his hair gray and admits his mistakes.
@ZichenWanghere RU/USSR has always been NK's top strategic partner. Realism dictates that neighboring countries will always seek a distant power to balance out Chinese influence. Even I can tell you both of these things🤦♂️It's the oldest trick in the book. Old man needs to retire jfc.