Yetiş @Yeti64555152
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V-shaped recovery is more likely than not. Any positive headline from Iran, the CLARITY Act, or the Fed and this can reverse violently. The green line is just a copy/paste from the last V-shaped recovery to show how fast price can turn when positioning gets this bearish. The big swing factor is Iran. Markets are pricing oil/inflation risk and a more hawkish Fed, but I think that fear is overdone. Prediction markets show roughly a 50% chance of a deal by July, and I’m optimistic we get there. Meanwhile: ISM remains above 50 Global liquidity is expanding again CLARITY is getting closer ETH is still absurdly cheap before regulatory clarity hits Honestly shocked we’re getting this entry. Maybe that’s the point.
this ethereum chart on the left here is the biggest thing that spooks me from trying to punt bottoms or accumulate below $60k btc because if it does break down towards $1000 it big picture just looks like it'll drift into a low vol boring sideways grind for many more years, like every tech asset after the dotcom bubble you might say "but btc is not eth" which is true, but I take it as a sign of where we are in the lifecycle of crypto generally - potentially at the end of the 15 year secular bull that ended with the US president endorsing bitcoin I've said this a dozen times already but the only reason we are so obsessed with catching knives is because we have been programmed to believe ath's are always just around the corner if eth fails here I think that time might be over reconsider a multi year winter
Rekt shorts fuel the pump 😂
UPDATE 🚨 ETH leveraged short liquidation liquidity at $8.55B This is the fuel bull markets are created from. Sooner or later these leveraged positions will unwind as shorts take profits and it becomes a panic race of force buying to the top. One catalyst is all is required.
Doesn't matter how you feel about Ethereum, The Clarity Act WILL get signed into law and all of Wall Street WILL move onchain. $ETH is the blockchain of choice for US Equities YOU CANNOT STOP THIS! Buy cheap now and get rich in the future 💪
Most people still holding $eth are likely ready to go down with the ship; at least I am. Ethereum is a bastion of freedom and self-sovereignty in an increasingly controlled world. No amount of number go down could get me to sell. Even with most of my net worth in eth, I would hold it to literal zero. I would rather take a chance on eth and be wrong than give up hope on the most inspiring invention of my generation. Come zero or valhalla, I'll be here. Believe in somΞthing.
Ethereum has 3.2x more holders than Bitcoin. Not market cap, holders! 📈 Non-empty wallets, ranked: 🔹 1. Ethereum: 189.49M 🔹 2. Bitcoin: 59.08M 🔹 3. Tether: 13.61M 🔹 4. XRP: 7.8M 🔹 5. USDC: 6.76M Data via @SantimentFeed
I don’t know who needs to hear this but… Tom Lee has $12,000 price target for ETH for 2026.
Post-quantum researcher? Bullish.
many people here have no idea this guy is an ethereum researcher who is doing serious work on post-quantum for ethereum eth to $10,000
Tom Lee is an infinitely better steward for $ETH than Michael Saylor is for $BTC No cringe AI slop ads No ridiculously complicated debt instruments No selling ETHBTC will soon reflect this
Here's my nuanced view of Bitmines 9.5% yielding Series A offering, and what Lee would need to do to keep this out of the "ponzi-zone". With the ethereum:native staking yield around 2.5-3%, if Lee is able to ensure that they don't sell more than 25-35% of the Series A compared to the size of their staked ETH, they could cover the entire amount of series A dividends with staking yield. This by definition keeps it out of the ponzi-zone and the allows ETH to become the *true* digital capital instrument that Saylor can only dream of but never achieve with BTC because BTC doesn't generate a yield. Now, there are a number of caveat's to this. Firstly, $BMNR holders were under the assumption that staking yield would accrue to their equity (i.e. tokens per share), but in this case the yield is diverted to the Series A holders. Kind of a rug pull on the common shareholders if you ask me. Secondly, for this not to enter the ponzi-zone (i.e. covering dividend payments with cash from previous buyers) Lee would need to ensure this never grows bigger than the staking yield could cover. That means capping the series A market cap at maybe 15-20% of their staked ETH (they need a buffer which I'll get into below). Otherwise this runs the risk of ballooning so large that Lee needs to begin covering dividend payments with cash on hand and diluting common stock shareholders, which is just a slow motion trainwreck as we're seeing with Strategy. Thirdly, there's a risk that Lee can't control which is the price of ETH dropping rapidly and sustainedly. Even if Lee capped the Series A at 25% of staked ETH, if ETH price plummeted 50% (not uncommon), then the series A is now 50% of the staked ETH, and now were in the ponzi-zone. The point is that the dividend payments are fixed in dollar terms, but the underlying asset is not, which is one of the largest risks of this type of financial engineering of DATs. Fourthly, we recently saw a proposal for ETH staking yield to be reduced significantly. This is yet another risk out of Lee's control that should be accounted for. Final comments: There are some interesting potentials with this that don't require Lee/Bitmine to go full blown ponzi and blow up BMNR & ETH in the process. That makes Lee (and the Bitmine board) the central points of risk as they decide which direction this goes (i.e. sustainable digital capital or ponzi-zone). I think it's too early to go full doomer on this, even in like of what's going on with Strategy/BTC right now.
ETH is a better BTC
An important update to this post: having watched $ETH's price action the last few days I'm open to the idea that ETH is higher than 1050 when 16% stablecoin dom is hit. When I made these lines I was using back of the envelope linear extrapolation to guesstimate ETH's price at 16% dom. But if ETH continues to show relative strength and the bulk of that stablecoin dom increase comes from BTC dropping, then it may be closer to that 1,400 level, perhaps higher. In this case I'd say it's best to time buys using the stablecoin dom chart rather than the dollar chart, or a combination of the two.
ETH/BTC has begun to reverse; 0.1 is the target price for this round; optimistically, it could reach 0.12; even in the worst-case scenario, it could reach 0.095.
ETH will continue decoupling as the market prices out non-revenue, weak PMF tokens. This is just the beginning. Trillions going onchain — real protocol cash flows. The market trades liquidity premiums, not memes. My bet’s on ETH
When Ethereum is back over $4k it’s gonna be obvious.
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