COVID19 Analysis @WuhanAnalysis
Kraków, Poland Joined February 2020-
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#COVID19 cases and deaths - all countries with deaths >100 as of April 13 Data from: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro… #coronavirus #corona #COVID2019 #COVID #COVIDー19 #COVID_19
Estimates of Effective Reproduction Number for #COVID19 #Poland: [1]: Rt = 3.03 (1.95 - 5.47) 95% CrI [2]: Rt = 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 90% CI Big difference... [1] Imperial College imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf… [2] epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/gl… Centre f t Math Mod Inf Dis CMMID @adamjkucharski
#Poland: Hackerspace Kraków is fundraising for mass production of sanitary visors to be supplied to hospitals. They have project, buy materials, rent production line, coordinate. #COVID19 #COVIDー19 #coronavirus #koronawirus
#Poland: Hackerspace Kraków is fundraising for mass production of sanitary visors to be supplied to hospitals. They have project, buy materials, rent production line, coordinate. #COVID19 #COVIDー19 #coronavirus #koronawirus
Problem with statistics: each country counts deaths differently. "France only records #COVID19 fatalities in hospitals, Spain does not include unconfirmed cases in senior homes, & Netherlands only tests hospitalized patients." english.elpais.com/society/2020-0… #CoronaVirusDE #COVID19italia
When Alina works in hospital, grandparents care for Leon. Alina doesn't want to expose them to #COVID19 and can see son only in this way. "My mum is a doctor in hospital. We've been separated for 2 weeks because she helps you. Help her & #StayAtHome" #COVIDー19 @KatarzynaPawlak
When Alina works in hospital, grandparents care for Leon. Alina doesn't want to expose them to #COVID19 and can see son only in this way. "My mum is a doctor in hospital. We've been separated for 2 weeks because she helps you. Help her & #StayAtHome" #COVIDー19 @KatarzynaPawlak
What % of #COVID19 cases is reported: Spain - 4.7% Italy - 5.2% UK - 7.5% USA - 15% Japan - 22% Poland - 24% Germany - 66% S.Korea - 77% Norway - 100% Source: article by @adamjkucharski et al Conclusion: There are 20 times more cases in Italy - not 100K, but about 2M. #COVID
What % of #COVID19 cases is reported: Spain - 4.7% Italy - 5.2% UK - 7.5% USA - 15% Japan - 22% Poland - 24% Germany - 66% S.Korea - 77% Norway - 100% Source: article by @adamjkucharski et al Conclusion: There are 20 times more cases in Italy - not 100K, but about 2M. #COVID
Harvard University epidemiologist William Hanage about #COVID19 modelling: “It’s like, you’ve decided you’ve got to ride a tiger, except you don’t know where the tiger is, how big it is, or how many tigers there actually are.” sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/m… #CoronavirusPandemic #COVID
#COVID19 total cases Data from European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control -> ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication… #coronavirus #SARSCoV2 #koronawirus #COVID_19 #COVIDー19 #COVID2019italia #COVID19de #COVID #COVID_19DE
On Feb 19 football/soccer Champions League game Atalanta Bergamo v Valencia took place. #COVID19 total cases in Italy: Feb: 19 - 3 cases 20 - 3 21 - 3 22 - 17 23 - 79 24 - 132 25 - 229 26 - 322 27 - 400 28 - 650 29 - 888 March: 1 - 1128 2 - 1689 nypost.com/2020/03/26/how…
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Our epidemic curve of new case in Australia (blue bars). Good news story with only low numbers of ongoing new cases. Achieved by tight restrictions but not a total lock down of the country. Lots of testing, follow up of all known cases, quarantine, closure of borders etc.
@DrewHolden360 Best source >>>>> x.com/wuhananalysis/…
What % of #COVID19 cases is reported: Spain - 4.7% Italy - 5.2% UK - 7.5% USA - 15% Japan - 22% Poland - 24% Germany - 66% S.Korea - 77% Norway - 100% Source: article by @adamjkucharski et al Conclusion: There are 20 times more cases in Italy - not 100K, but about 2M. #COVID
Updated @cmmid_lshtm rough estimates for the proportion of symptomatic cases that are potentially being reported in different locations, now estimating changes over time (analysis led by @timwrussell) cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19… 1/
So how many people have been exposed to #COVID19, and have antibodies? This report estimates total number of infections in different European countries based on observed cases and deaths, generally finding between 1% and 15% of population was infected. 8/n imperial.ac.uk/medicine/depar…
R0 might be higher than we think, which suggests that our efforts to bend the curve even more remarkable than we had thought. wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
The UK's Imperial College is out with the first of what will be a weekly forecast for the current situation in different countries imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
Norway and Sweden have so far taken very different approaches to #corona, with Norway essentially shutting down as of March 13th, Sweden "staying open." As of today, Norway had 76 dead, Sweden 477. That's 1.4 dead per 100k capita in Norway vs. 4.7 dead per 100k capita in Sweden.
Who is cooking the Covid19 data? I've replicated the study here arxiv.org/pdf/2002.05695… On a sample of countries, looking at Benford law applied to the first digit of their (cum) reported cases numbers. Here are the results.
A Washington Post analysis estimates ~ 42,000 deaths in Wuhan #China. That’s 16 times the official # released by their Government re #Covid19. washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…
Follow up: #France, which passed China yesterday to secure #5 in world in total #Covid19 cases. They "discovered" 17,827 new cases in nursing homes & 532 new deaths. France is being more transparent and accountable than many other countries, thus far. reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Growth in total confirmed #COVID19 cases as a percent of total population by country: U.S. versus Spain and Italy. (Indexed to days since the first 100 cases were confirmed in each country). U.S. is still early, but on slower relative trajectory when compared to Italy and Spain.
🧪#COVIDー19 Reported cases per 1K tests performed (Apr. 01, 2020) Data/sources: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
🧪#COVIDー19 Tests per 100K people (Apr. 01, 2020) 5,756 🇮🇸 Iceland 2,252 🇦🇪 UAE 2,063 🇧🇭 Bahrain 1,753 🇳🇴 Norway 1,521 🇨🇭 Switzerland 1,210 🇭🇰 Hong Kong 1,100 🇩🇪 Germany 1,081 🇸🇮 Slovenia 1,025 🇦🇺 Australia 1,013 🇲🇹 Malta Data/sources: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
44 of 70 UT Austin students who went on a spring break trip to Mexico two weeks ago have now tested positive for coronavirus nytimes.com/2020/04/01/us/…
@ianbremmer Testing for COVID-19 has not only plateaued but declined in Italy. I'm therefore very skeptical to make strong statements on poor data on confirmed cases that are surely a large undercount of total cases. We need to look at the data for testing. x.com/maxcroser/stat…
I see many claiming that Italy’s cases have peaked and that Italy is bending the curve. I hope they are right. But I remain very skeptical. Because Italy’s tests have also peaked. Data on case and deaths without data on testing does not tell us much: OurWorldInData.org/Covid-Testing
New #COVIDー19 modelling study. Mean time from symptom onset to death=18 days; to hospital discharge=25 days. Crude case fatality ratio 3.7% in China; adjusted (for under-ascertainment) CFR 1.4%. Overall infection fatality ratio (all infections) was 0.7%. thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
avatorl.org/covid-19/ #COVID19 #coronavirus
While many other #coronavirus web sites share data I provide tools for data analysis. 30+ pages of interactive charts. You can filter data by countries, select linear or log scale and so on. For example: avatorl.org/covid-19/?page… page can be used to compare up to 9 countries /1
Regarding #covid19 statistics, @cmmid_lshtm estimates that: - China has 3x more cases than reported - The US has 6-8x more - Italy has 17-22x more - South Korea has detected all, or at most has 2x more
We've updated our (still very rough) estimates for the proportion of symptomatic COVID-19 cases being reported in different countries. This reflects potential reporting patterns as of couple of weeks ago. See thread below for caveats – full details here: cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…
We've updated our (still very rough) estimates for the proportion of symptomatic COVID-19 cases being reported in different countries. This reflects potential reporting patterns as of couple of weeks ago. See thread below for caveats – full details here: cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…
New analysis from @cmmid_lshtm (led by @timwrussell) provides some rough initial estimates for the % of symptomatic COVID-19 cases that might have been detected/reported in different countries (focusing on those with >10 deaths)... 1/ cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19…
Trends for United States
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