#MountLebanon neutral, in an Israel-Hezbollah war? My excerpts from a report in the @ForeignDeskNews on "how would an #Israel-#Hezbollah war look like and possible scenarios." “According to our strategic assessment, it is almost certain that Israeli forces will continue pressing on #Hamas until they reach the Egyptian border, despite the various human rights initiatives, including the one launched by the United States, said @WalidPhares, author and foreign policy expert on @NewsmaxTV. “As a result, the Iranian Revolutionary Command in #Tehran is contemplating using the other militias as a way to spread chaos in the region to force the international community to pressure #Israel to stop and create a ceasefire. In view of the fact that the Israeli government and the public are not convinced that a ceasefire is possible before the military end of Hamas, this situation is most likely going to force the Iranian regime to open other fronts,” he added. According to Phares, the two other fronts that can be opened by Tehran are #Syria and #Lebanon. “The largest force that can confront or attack Israel happens to be Hezbollah out of Lebanon. The Israelis know that; this is why it is also clear that Israel is preparing itself for the eventuality of an offensive coming from Hezbollah, comparable if not necessarily similar to Hamas’s attack because surprise attacks at this point in time are difficult to launch,” he told The Foreign Desk. “Israel is already at war; the only fact that we can read now is if Iran cannot stop Israel from crushing Hamas, it will launch Hezbollah. Israel knows it and therefore, is preparing for an offensive against Hezbollah. The question is, what do we expect,” Phares explained. Phares explained to The Foreign Desk that Hezbollah would not launch an offensive against Northern Israel without a full green light and approval from Tehran. “The coordination between Hezbollah, other militias, and Tehran is comprehensive, contrary to claims by some sources in Washington suggesting that Hezbollah would negotiate an attack against Israel with Iran. This is not the case; Iran will essentially direct Hezbollah as the chief orchestrator for the five militias in the region in any confrontation with the U.S. and Israel,” he said. “Any hostilities would commence with an Israeli response to Hezbollah. This response essentially offers two options: either a massive air campaign throughout Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions and allied militias or an air campaign accompanied by a limited ground incursion, a strategy previously employed in 1978, 1982 and again in 2006,” Phares said. “The ground campaign would aim to push Hezbollah’s lines deeper into Lebanon and establish a buffer zone. This time, Hezbollah has not only constructed fortifications and tunnels in Southern Lebanon but also expanded operations across the #Beqaa Valley and, for the first time in modern history, into Mount Lebanon, inhabited by Druze and Christians. Consequently, Israel must consider the possibility that the battlefield may extend from the South all the way to the critical area in Lebanon known as Mount Lebanon,” Phares explained to The Foreign Desk. “In my view, the next challenge for Israel fighting Hezbollah is to learn from past wars, absorb, and react to the new reality. Hezbollah controls Lebanon very tightly but is also deeply deployed in Sunni, Druze, and Christian areas. Those communities are essentially anti-Hezbollah and are trying at this time to remain neutral in a war between Hezbollah and Israel. The narrative, word-wise, especially in the West, has been that this upcoming war is between Israel and Lebanon; in fact, it is between Israel and Hezbollah, which controls Lebanon. Hence, there are many questions that could be raised,” Phares explained. According to Phares, if the operation is limited, it will only cover areas where Hezbollah has popular bases, and that will be along the border with Israel. “From what we understand, the bulk of these communities want to maintain their neutrality in the fight between Hezbollah and Israel, and some voices have already spoken about a special free zone in Lebanon, which would actually be a neutral zone not involved in the war,” he said. The problem, according to Phares, is that Hezbollah is and will be deployed in any area of its choice because nobody can stop them. “Perhaps, at this point, the U.S. administration, as they are doing in Eastern Syria and Northern Iraq, would approve of the idea of a free zone in the center of Lebanon and the North of Lebanon. That would cover mostly Mount Lebanon and parts of Northern Lebanon. Those areas have a coast of about 100 kilometers in the North. This could also serve the U.S. to further its deployment in Lebanon, knowing that they already have a military presence in the North, which would serve as a deterrence to Hezbollah,” he explained to The Foreign Desk. Phares explained that given that there would be an American presence on its back in the North, Hezbollah will think thoroughly before waging an offensive attack against Israel because its geographical deployments are very thin in Lebanon. “They [Hezbollah] have a lot of weapons, but thin geography given that it is on flat land, and they don’t control much of the mountains. Therefore, if Israel wants to engage Hezbollah, it will be useful for the U.S. to serve as the second arm in this anti-Hezbollah offensive, as Washington will gain the support of half of Lebanon automatically, a coast of 100 kilometers, and very powerful mountainous positions that can help U.S. strategy in the fight against Iranian militias. For that, you need a decision by the U.S. administration in Washington, which has not been made yet,” Phares said. Phares noted that Hezbollah has enough reserves of missiles, drones, and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to cover at least half of Israel from the border all the way to Northern Tel Aviv and maybe beyond. “The plan of Hezbollah is to make it rain with missiles on urban and humanitarian centers inside Israel, which will force Israel to try and destroy, from the air, most of the networks that Hezbollah has already established. The second problem is that this Iranian militia is connected through land to Syria, Iraq, and all the way to Iran, which means they will have quicker placement of whatever they lose through this land bridge, to which the Israelis can and would try to cut that line with their air force and other assets across Eastern Syria and Northern Iraq,” Phares stated. “Here again, the role of the U.S. can and would be vital because of the presence of all the US assets in Eastern Syria and Iraq to have in stopping the logistical support by the Iranian regime,” he told The Foreign Desk. “Any war between Hezbollah and Israel will become long and destructive, where Israeli civilians will suffer casualties, but where Hezbollah could lose a lot of proper support from Lebanon. The key is for the U.S. to secure the civilian population of Mount Lebanon, which will actually encircle Hezbollah between the Free Lebanese in the North and Israel in the South,” Phares said. He added that such efforts will “definitely need American support, which Congress would be willing to provide for the American administration in a very difficult and complex election year in America. “Israel can eventually degrade and isolate Hezbollah, but it definitely needs a neutral zone inside Lebanon where Hezbollah cannot establish or deploy in all of Lebanon’s areas. That would be the determinant,” Phares told The Foreign Desk. foreigndesknews.com/trending/israe…
@WalidPhares @ForeignDeskNews Very informative. Thank you.