Vojtěch Šimeček | TLI @Vojtech_Sim

Make $NIO Great Again

The bull markets: Crypto - already started China - about to start U.S. - $SPY is overheated. Only certain sectors and stocks will run

@Mia43152015 @TheLongInvest @Onlygaysmmvh What the hell is that handle, those bots are wild

New badge, how do I look

Let's all take a moment to understand how self-serving it is for OpenAI, Anthropic and other execs of big hyperscalers to talk of slowing things down. 1. LLMs are not AI and won't be AGI. There is nothing AI to slow down. 2. Competition is coming up fast, slowing benefits incumbents. 3. IPOs need hype & puffery; "we are so awesome it could become dangerous" is hype & puffery 4. Cover for real uncontrollable slowing growth as IPOs look to be pushed out

@TheValueTrade The best accent ever: Invented by every Scotsman

@TheLongInvest You just hate the US Trump made not only America great again, but the entire world He's Jesus

The dilution isn't in the share count. It's in the subsidiaries. NIO Q2 2026 thourgh smudla's lens. What mezzanine equity is, why RMB 143m moved without explanation, and why an IPO deadline in Dec 2028 matters more than the delivery miss. $NIO x.com/i/article/2096…

Nio's Shenji M97 chip may enter Geely's supply chain, report says Geely is evaluating the M97 chip, jointly developed by Nio and Axera, for a dual-chip L3 autonomous driving system. cnev.co/9IIC43a 👇

@Kevinkmoron I will do my best

DON'T SELL YOUR $SOFI SHARES TO THEM

I don't care what happens next, $NBIS looks extremely strong and Wave 5 target is a matter of time Big boy pants on for Bulls - Big boy diaper for Mr. Burry

Which way $CELH Bulls?

$NIO - solid earnings yesterday. The company proved it's not about surviving anymore, but about scaling the business. Institutions are lowering the targets to grab cheaper shares before we go higher. OG retail investors are getting frustrated and offloading. Classical.

#𝗡𝗜𝗢 𝗤𝟮: 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗣𝗘𝗥𝗙𝗘𝗖𝗧. 𝗕𝗨𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗦 𝗜𝗦 𝗔 𝗗𝗜𝗙𝗙𝗘𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗧 𝗖𝗢𝗠𝗣𝗔𝗡𝗬 𝗡𝗢𝗪. $NIO Revenue missed. Deliveries came in under guidance. The profit is thin. All true. Now look at what actually changed. 𝗩𝗘𝗛𝗜𝗖𝗟𝗘 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗚𝗜𝗡 𝗪𝗘𝗡𝗧 𝗙𝗥𝗢𝗠 𝟭𝟬.𝟯% 𝗧𝗢 𝟭𝟴.𝟱% 𝗜𝗡 𝗢𝗡𝗘 𝗬𝗘𝗔𝗥 That is the number that matters. A year ago NIO was buying volume with margin. Now it is selling premium cars at premium economics. • Vehicle margin 18.5%, up 820bp YoY • Gross margin 18.4%, up 840bp YoY • Revenue RMB 32.14B, up 69.1% • Deliveries 107,658, up 49.4% Growing 69% while margins nearly double is not the same company that was burning cash to move metal. 𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗦𝗧𝗥𝗔𝗜𝗚𝗛𝗧 𝗤𝗨𝗔𝗥𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗦 𝗢𝗙 𝗔𝗗𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧𝗘𝗗 𝗢𝗣𝗘𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗙𝗜𝗧 Adjusted operating profit of RMB 206.9M this quarter. That is three in a row. The GAAP net loss is still there at RMB 528M, and adjusted net profit of RMB 26.1M is razor thin. Nobody should pretend otherwise. But the direction of travel over four quarters is unmistakable. 𝗔𝗟𝗟 𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗕𝗥𝗔𝗡𝗗𝗦 𝗔𝗥𝗘 𝗟𝗘𝗔𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗜𝗥 𝗦𝗘𝗚𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧 • NIO brand: #1 in China above RMB 350,000 in Q2 • ES9: #1 above RMB 500,000 in both June and July • ES8: 140,000 deliveries in 335 days, 10,999 in August alone • ONVO: sales leader in the RMB 200,000 to 300,000 large SUV segment • FIREFLY: #1 share in high-end small cars for 15 straight months The multi-brand strategy that everyone called a distraction is now three segment leaders. 𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗕𝗘𝗔𝗥𝗦 𝗚𝗢𝗧 𝗥𝗜𝗚𝗛𝗧 Volume has flattened. July was 35,934. August was 35,836. Q3 guidance of 108,000 to 111,000 is basically flat against Q2. That puts the 456,000 full-year target out of reach without a Q4 that would need roughly 155,000 units. And SG&A jumped 26.5% sequentially, which ate most of the incremental gross profit. Those are real. Watch them. 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗟 𝗤𝗨𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 𝗙𝗢𝗥 𝗤𝟯 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗤𝟰 NIO has proven it can earn a good margin on a car. It has not yet proven that margin reaches the bottom line at scale. Management guided gross margin near 18.5% for the next two quarters. RMB 56.7B in liquidity funds the runway. The product cycle is working. What is missing is volume. 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗛𝗬𝗣𝗘. 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗡𝗨𝗠𝗕𝗘𝗥𝗦. A year ago the question was whether NIO would survive. Now the question is how fast it can scale a business that already works on a per-unit basis. That is a much better problem to have.

Maybe time to return to more frequent YT videos gain, because this becomes quite the asymmetric opportunity at this point. $NIO

@TheValueTrade Respects to you!

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Mr. TLI told me I should start posting on X So here I am. You can look forward to some TA and my wisdom Or at least the TA..

The Long Investor @TheLongInvest

a month ago

Follow the TLI Team @Vojtech_Sim @MitchMartan98 @SeanOKeeffeTLI 3 guys obsessed with sharing as much value as they can.

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BREAKING: A source close to Iranian officials says Tehran has documented a pattern of oil market manipulation tied to Axios reports and Trump administration insiders, including evidence of a $9 billion insider trading operation linked to Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Some of the documented timeline from the $9 billion insider profit: Between April and May 2026, a series of suspiciously timed trades in oil futures markets preceded major Iran war announcements—each tied to reporting by Axios. On March 23, approximately $500–580 million in shorts were placed 15 minutes before Trump announced he was postponing strikes on Iran. Oil dropped. On April 7, roughly $950–960 million in shorts were placed hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Oil fell around 15 percent. On April 17, around $760 million in shorts were placed 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil dropped. On April 21, approximately $430 million in shorts were placed 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire. Oil dropped again. On May 6, nearly $920 million to $1.7 billion in crude oil shorts were placed approximately 70 minutes before an Axios scoop claimed the U.S. and Iran were near a "14-point agreement." Oil dropped 12 percent. Traders made an estimated $125 million. Iran called the report "the Americans' wish list." Previously, a senior Iranian official told investigative outlet Drop Site News that Tehran privately warned JD Vance during Switzerland talks that Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were "abusing" negotiations—"more interested in exploiting insider knowledge to profit in financial markets than reaching a deal."