Overd0se @Turcaat
Geneva, Switzerland Joined March 2016-
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Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.
Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly
In the future, a trillion times a trillion dollars will be spent on making antimatter to travel to other star systems
@NingiResearch Can you just move on ? , close your short position and forget
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Today, @SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) makes its public market debut with a $75Bn offering (pre-greenshoe) at $135 per share, marking the largest IPO in history. Congratulations to the SpaceX team. We are honored to serve as joint lead bookrunner and sole stabilization agent.
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True
I don’t think people realize how affordable Teslas have gotten. A new Model Y is $530/month. (72 months)
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