Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

20+ years of professional baseball analytics, research, and authorship. baseballhq.com Joined March 2011

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

3 weeks ago

Here are some early skill baselines for bullpen arms so far in 2024: • 46% GB% (groundball rate) • 11.8% SwK% (swinging strike rate) • 60% FpK% (first-pitch strike rate) • 36% Ball% These 25 overlooked relievers on the extremes of the above levels warrant your attention:

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

4 weeks ago

Ten tiny sample size observations (hitters) among those with an early top-50 average exit velocity (min 10 PA):

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a month ago

Hidden spring training skills among starting pitchers:

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a month ago

Some under-the-radar spring training performances among hitters:

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

7 months ago

September surgers to grab if still available in keeper leagues: Louie Varland David Peterson Elehuris Montero Tarik Skubal Cristopher Sánchez Bryan Woo Matt Wallner Nelson Velázquez Nolan Jones Brandon Nimmo Mitch Garver Bryan Abreu Tanner Scott Matt Brash Jose Cuas Will Vest

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

7 months ago

The best post-hype play in keeper leagues? Try Elehuris Montero. Promising spring, thump at AAA finally starting to show in majors. Check out his September results and ranks: • 1.147 OPS (9th) • 94.5 mph EV (12th) • 21% K% (40% K% pre-Sept) Owned in only 8% of CBS leagues.

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

10 months ago

The most likely fringe top-100 prospect who could be an MLB top-10 prospect at some point next year? Try 19-year-old Red Sox OF Roman Anthony, whose bat has blossomed since promotion to High-A (5 HR, 1.170 OPS in 48 AB) and his plate approach has stayed solid (19% BB%, 22% K%).

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

10 months ago

When prospecting for pitchers in minors, use swinging strike rate and ball % more than K/BB: • 12.2% SwK%, 38% Ball% are average • Only these 17 starters in minors have 15.0%+ SwK% and <34% Ball% • Hampton, Vasil, Scott, Whisenhunt 📈 • Hurt adding control to wipeout stuff

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

10 months ago

31 batters have increased their average exit velocity by 3+ mph in June: • Signs of life from Báez, Marte, Abreu, Harris • Walker showing upside, but still needs launch angle tweak • Ozuna's May turnaround continues • Lane Thomas a surging power/speed play after rough April

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a year ago

Only 19 pitchers in the minors at High-A and above have a 30%+ K-BB%. The two youngest are emerging as upper-echelon pitching prospects: • AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL (44% K%, 8% BB%, 37% K-BB%; age 20 at High-A) • Cristian Mena, CHW (38% K%, 7% BB%, 31% K-BB%; age 20 at Double-A)

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a year ago

• 55 hitters in the minors have 5+ HR. Their average age is 25. • 16 hitters in the minors have 10+ SB. Their average age is 23. • One hitter in the minors has 5+ HR and 10+ SB, and he's 20 at High-A: Jonatan Clase, Mariners (6 HR, 14 SB). Also one of 79 bats with 15+ walks.

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a year ago

Looking for a prospect that the market soured on too quickly? Try Cubs SS Cristian Hernandez. Top 2021 international signee struggled with swing decisions in first stateside season (30% K%) but is quietly emerging early in 2023 as a young 19-year-old at Low-A (.894 OPS, 16% K%).

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a year ago

Beneath near-5 ERA of DET's Mason Englert is a 12/3 K/BB fueled by a 35%+ whiff% with both changeup and slider after a 14/2 K/BB this spring. Lange can't find plate, Foley and Cisnero don't miss bats, Rosenthal has 39 IP since 2018. There's a clear path to a late-game role here.

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a year ago

Most surprising name on early swinging strike rate leaderboard? Tiny sample, but how about the return of Griffin Canning: • 16.5% SwK%, 31% CSW% • 33% whiff% with four-seamer • 94.2 mph four-seam velocity highest of career • New slider-heavy approach is working (42% whiff%)

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a year ago

Keston Hiura hit his 6th home run today. His 29% K% in Triple-A is the lowest of his career. He's mashing lefties for the first time and making tons of contact against them (1.544 OPS, 2/2 BB/K in 15 AB vL). Won't turn 27 until August. Now's the time to stash again.

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a year ago

Looking for a reliever owned in 0% of CBS leagues? Try Yankees RHP Jimmy Cordero. Journeyman had a 50/13 K/BB in 38 IP at AAA in 2022 return from TJ surgery and 9/1 K/BB this spring. Current 43% CSW% ranks #2 out of 222 relievers. 98-mph sinker with 30% whiff% and wipeout slider.

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a year ago

Only four hitters have gained 3+ mph of exit velocity while reducing their swinging strike rate by 3+ points. One is Matt Chapman. The other three are led by Jarred Kelenic, a former top-five MLB prospect:

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a year ago

Four overlooked relievers to target: Shelby Miller, LA (21.8% SwK% after 9/0 K/BB in 6 IP in spring) Ronel Blanco, HOU (37.1% SwK% after 17/3 K/BB in 14 IP in spring) Nick Anderson, ATL (21.8% SwK% after 13/1 K/BB in 9 IP in spring) Jonathan Hernandez, TEX (98 mph + 67% GB%)

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a year ago

Relievers with sneaky spring stats: Nick Anderson, ATL (11/1 K/BB in 7 IP) was dominant in 2019 Evan Reifert, TAM (11/2 K/BB in 4 IP) has unhittable stuff Josh Simpson, MIA (10/2 K/BB in 5 IP) filthy at AA/AAA in 2022 J Merryweather, CHC (8/2 K/BB in 5 IP) in 2021 closer mix

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Stephen Nickrand @StephenNickrand

a year ago

Looking for a deep-league speculation if you have a bench? Underneath Brent Honeywell's ugly spring results is a 16/2 K/BB in 11 IP. Former MLB top-15 prospect finally looks healthy in SD camp and has rediscovered elite swing-and-miss stuff.