Here's every instance of a WR (drafted Rounds 1-3 since 2020) who saw at least 27.5% of their targets come on contested targets in a single season (min. 50 targets):
In other words, this is a list comprised of all of the greatest draft busts over this span plus only Nico Collins My working theory: If you're relying on contested catches, you’re probably not getting open a lot. And if you’re not consistently getting open in college, you're definitely going to struggle to separate in the NFL
@ScottBarrettDFB I think Drake London was also in this category
@ScottBarrettDFB Trying to evaluate Keon:
@ScottBarrettDFB How many 2024 prospects would make this list?
@ScottBarrettDFB Alec pierce looks ok. I wonder if this changes if they are deployed as a big slot/TE ?
@ScottBarrettDFB Yikes. Does the inverse work as well? WRs drafted 1-3 who saw very little contested targets and maybe also a minimum on ADOT ? Not sure if college has a metric for separation created.