Real Plan C Private🎯 @RealplanCpriv

If you are cheering for the 4-year cycle to play out again, you are cheering against Bitcoin. The 4-year cycle is one of the worst things long-term for Bitcoin's adoption and reaching its true potential as a global asset. If Bitcoin is perceived as a speculative asset that follows some magical 4-year cycle, it will remain a sideshow speculative asset. For Bitcoin to remain something that everyone sells or trades every 4 years for no reason other than that 4 years have passed is a horrible narrative.

Breaking Bitcoin News 🗞️ U.S. Rep. Nick Begich (R-AK) just formally introduced the American Reserves Modernization Act (ARMA) in the House, co-led with Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) and 16 bipartisan co-sponsors.

In retrospect, it will be obvious.

Fred Krueger @dotkrueger

4 months ago

From Plan C (link in comments), we are headed into a SuperCycle.

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x.com/i/article/2048…

Bitcoin / Saylor: Very Important Point I would love to have someone give their best argument for how Bitcoin can go below $50,000. Michael Saylor literally has a USD printer that he can turn on and control the flow rate. Think about it. If Bitcoin were to go to $60,000 for a few weeks or a few months, which, to be clear is not my base case, Saylor could increase the STRC interest rate to 12% and buy 25k to 50k Bitcoin weekly. If Bitcoin somehow were to go to $50,000, he could increase the STRC interest rate to 13% and buy 50,000 to 100,000 Bitcoin in one week, and keep doing that until the price recovers. Increasing the interest rate by another 0.5% to 1.5% would be more than justified if he could load up on $50,000 to $60,000 Bitcoin, lower his cost basis, and increase his future capital gains. The money would come back to him in multiples versus the interest paid. And don't forget, STRC is a variable rate, so he would always drop back to 11.5% in 3 to 6 months once the price recovers. I'm not making an opinion on whether it's a good thing that a single entity can set the floor by ramping up its money printing temporarily. It's just the reality and the math of the situation for anyone who hasn't connected the dots yet. Saylor is all in, and he has many levers he can pull now to support the price and essentially set the floor. The longer Bitcoin trades at discounted levels, and the deeper the discount, the more he will load up, and the more he is incentivized to do so.

Fact: Bitcoin has never broken back above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and held it as sustained support during any prior extended bear market. STH Cost Basis = $78,417 Today marks day 12 above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, but I'd like to see at least a month above it before calling it sustained.

Important: Bitcoin The generals are always preparing... to fight the last war...

It's so clear what's coming next...

New Bitcoin Floor Model! Simple and elegant. Equal-weighted average of BTC's lifetime SMA, single EMA, double EMA (DEMA), triple EMA (TEMA), and quadruple EMA (QEMA), then plot a ±10% band around that average. Upper band ×1.1 = $57,112 Lower band ×0.9 = $46,728

It's beginning... gradually, then suddenly... the Bitcoin Supercycle... you were warned!

Plan C @TheRealPlanC

4 months ago

Once Bitcoin stabilizes over $80,000, many people on the sidelines are going to start questioning the 4-year cycle and whether the low is already in. Plenty will begin to buy back in, driving the price closer to $90,000, and then a reflexive surge takes us back to $100,000.

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The supercycle/mid-cycle correction theory I've been talking about for well over 2 years is beginning to materialize. The business cycle is showing signs of getting ready to start its expansion phase. We had a very healthy, fast 50% mid-cycle correction/capitulation. We had a year of long-term holders taking healthy profits above $100,000. We are above the bull market support band and short-term holder cost basis, which are the key TA and on-chain bear/bull market pivot points. I could go on and on. All signs point to a supercycle/second major peak coming in the second half of 2027 to the first half of 2028.

Plan C @TheRealPlanC

4 months ago

Bitcoin is about to go through its first supercycle: from $16,000 to $250,000+. The cycle began Nov 2022 at the $16,000 bear market low. The first peak was $126,000 and the mid-cycle low was $60,000. The next cycle peak will land in the second half of 2027 to the first half

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For anyone who's unaware, I've been calling for an extended / super cycle as my base case for well over two years. Bitcoin is now above the Short-Term Holder cost basis. If Bitcoin can find sustained support above this level, it would be huge confirmation that this extreme, fast 50% capitulation from $126,000 was in fact a mid-cycle correction. In every extended bear market, this has never happened.

The 4-year cycle bros waiting for the $30,000 to $50,000 Bitcoin low in Q4 are beginning to capitulate and buy back in. Even they are starting to realize that this time is different. There is no real complete bull market until we have an expansionary business cycle phase.

Plan C @TheRealPlanC

4 months ago

🚨 Important Point: Bitcoin Let me remind you again, like I said two months ago. Bitcoin has NEVER had its FULL, complete bull market EVER while the PMI was below 50 the whole time. It's wild that people honestly think Bitcoin will correct 50% from here... It's not 2015,

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Bitcoin is about to go through its first supercycle: from $16,000 to $250,000+. The cycle began Nov 2022 at the $16,000 bear market low. The first peak was $126,000 and the mid-cycle low was $60,000. The next cycle peak will land in the second half of 2027 to the first half of 2028, and I would be surprised to see anything less than $250,000 at the supercycle top.

Great update from Sminston. One of my favorite Bitcoin accounts and one of the very top Bitcoin analysts out there. Follow him and thank me later.

Sminston With 👁 @sminston_with

4 months ago

Seems like we have escaped the <50 ISM PMI trench. Are you ready for what's next? 👀

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🚨 Important Point: Bitcoin Let me remind you again, like I said two months ago. Bitcoin has NEVER had its FULL, complete bull market EVER while the PMI was below 50 the whole time. It's wild that people honestly think Bitcoin will correct 50% from here... It's not 2015, people. We're talking about a completely different asset. Bitcoin also doesn't follow the 4-year cycle. It never has. It has always followed the business cycle, and once again it is. Like clockwork.

Bitcoin has a better chance of going to $250,000 (small chance) in 2026 then $40,000 (near zero chance).

I have been warning about and calling this a mid-cycle correction for years now. Finally, everyone can see it. The low was not the bottom of an extended typical 4-year cycle. It was a mid-cycle correction following the first of two major peaks. Second peak and true cycle top sometime in 2027.

Once Bitcoin stabilizes over $80,000, many people on the sidelines are going to start questioning the 4-year cycle and whether the low is already in. Plenty will begin to buy back in, driving the price closer to $90,000, and then a reflexive surge takes us back to $100,000. From there, it's game on again. True cycle peak sometime in 2027.

Strategy will hit a $1 trillion market cap in 5 years and a $2 to $2.5 trillion market cap in 7-9 years, assuming both the Saylor Curve and Bitcoin Power Curve hold.