$META Barclays lays out potential impact from $META’s new AI agent (incremental +11% of revs)
He estimates $META's new AI agents could impact the business model in the following ways: 1) increase overall engagement for 800m+ users in ’24, 2) increase 2024 core ad revs by $16B from higher CPM and better targeting, 3) increase COGS to the tune of $10B+ on higher inference cost and D+A.
Our take: $16B is quite a bit number – 11% of revs. Ross assumes a similar engagement trajectory as $SNAP’s AI Chat bot – about 25% usage within a year (SNAP: 150M users “tried” My AI in the first 65 days and generated 10B messages). “It's plausible that not only will META see one-to-one engagement with their AI agents, like Character.ai and Snapchat, but the company may also see a secondary kind of engagement whereby these personalities push content to users to spark engagement on a one-to-many broadcast basis, like the way follower graphs of Instagram and Facebook work.”
We liked this note and continue to like META as we think they will be a big AI winner and we will definitely be watching engagement closely as AI agent is released this month. An increasing AI narrative + great ad checks = why stock has held up the best (along with GOOGL) among large-cap.
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