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HE CLEARS THIS LINE THIS TIME
MLB POTD #1 | (6/8) ⚾️
Gavin Williams "O" 6.5 K's (-130) | @FanDuel#GuardsBall
Collab w/ @KashyLocks 📲
This is a strong strikeout setup against a Yankees lineup that features several swing-and-miss bats and has multiple hitters striking out at elevated rates vs RHP.
The recent form has been solid:
• Cleared in 5 of his last 10
• Averaging 6.8 Ks over his last 5
• Averaging 7.6 Ks over his last 15
The workload profile is PHENOMENAL:
• 100th percentile strikeouts per game (7.2)
• 99th percentile innings pitched (6.1)
• 99th percentile outs recorded (18.7)
• 99th percentile batters faced (24.9)
His underlying metrics continue backing the strikeout upside:
• 82nd percentile K/9 (10.36)
• 82nd percentile WHIP (1.08)
• 95th percentile chase rate allowed (34.4%)
• 71st percentile whiff rate allowed (28.1%)
• 73rd percentile swinging-strike rate (13.9%)
The Yankees provide several strong strikeout targets vs RHP:
Key K Threats:
• Spencer Jones — 36.0% K rate
• Ryan McMahon — 31.6% K rate
• Jazz Chisholm — 27.5% K rate
• Ben Rice — 22.2% K rate
• Paul Goldschmidt — 22.2% K rate
Supporting swing-and-miss metrics:
• Spencer Jones — 28.2% whiff rate / 41.5% chase rate
• Ryan McMahon — 30.5% whiff rate / 31.7% chase rate
• Jazz Chisholm — 26.6% whiff rate / 28.5% chase rate
• Goldschmidt — 26.3% whiff rate / 37.3% chase rate
• Caballero — 21.6% whiff rate / 31.9% chase rate
What stands out most is the combination of strikeout efficiency and volume. He averages over 24 batters faced per start while maintaining a double-digit K/9, creating plenty of opportunities to clear this number.
If he's locating early and working into the sixth inning as usual, this Yankees lineup has high strikeout potential as a team that strikeouts the 8th most in the MLB.
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BACK THE JAPANESE PHENOM
MLB POTD #1 | (6/6) ⚾️
Yoshi Yamamoto “O” 7.5 K’s (+120) | @bet365_us#Dodgers
50 ❤️ for POTD #2 ✍️
We are backing one of the best pitchers in the world who has been hot lately and gets the best matchup in the MLB vs the Angel who strikeout the most in the league at 9.44 per game.
The recent form has been trending in the right direction:
• Cleared in 4 of his last 5 starts
• Averaging 7.4 Ks over his last 5
• Averaging 6.3 Ks over his last 10
]• Coming off a 10-strikeout performance in his most recent start
The workload profile is elite for this number:
• 97th percentile strikeouts per game (6.3)
• 100th percentile innings pitched (6.1)
• 100th percentile outs recorded (18.8)
• 98th percentile batters faced (24.5)
His underlying metrics continue supporting the strikeout upside:
• 90th percentile WHIP (1.00)
• 64th percentile K/9 (8.96)
• Consistently working deep into games
• Generates enough volume to create additional strikeout opportunities
The Angels present several strong strikeout targets:
Key K Threats:
• Soler — 32.0% K rate
• Neto — 30.2% K rate
• O’Hoppe — 28.7% K rate
• Adell — 24.3% K rate
• Trout — 23.3% K rate
• Peraza — 23.0% K rate
• Walton — 22.2% K rate
Supporting Whiff + Chase Rates:
• Soler — 33.0% whiff | 28.3% chase
• O’Hoppe — 30.8% whiff | 33.9% chase
• Neto — 28.3% whiff | 31.7% chase
• Peraza — 26.2% whiff | 37.1% chase
• Walton — 26.0% whiff | 33.8% chase
• Adell — 23.5% whiff | 37.8% chase
What stands out most is the combination of elite workload and a lineup that offers multiple strikeout opportunities from top to bottom. The Angels have several hitters carrying K-rates above 23% while also posting elevated whiff and chase numbers.
The path to the over is straightforward. This pitcher consistently works into the 6th and 7th innings, ranks near the top of the league in innings, outs recorded, and batters faced, and now draws a lineup with multiple swing-and-miss batters.
If he gets through the order once efficiently, the volume alone should put him in position to threaten 8+ strikeouts again.
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HE WILL BE A STRIKEOUT DEMON TOMORROW 😈
MLB POTD #1 | (6/5) ⚾️
Brandon Sproat "O" 4.5 K's (+105) | @Novig#ThisIsMyCrew
Collab w/ @KashyLocks ✍️
•This is one of the better matchups Sproat has seen, drawing a Rockies lineup that ranks 10th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
•Colorado has consistently given opposing righties opportunities to rack up punchouts, making this a favorable spot for a pitcher with Sproat’s strikeout upside.
• We’ve already seen several right-handed pitchers clear this number against the Rockies this season:
Ureña – 7 Ks
Soriano – 7 Ks
Webb – 5 Ks
Sheehan – 8 Ks
• With the line sitting at just 4.5 strikeouts, Sproat doesn’t need a dominant outing to cash this number.
• If he can work through 5 innings, he’ll likely have enough batters faced to get multiple chances against a lineup that tends to swing and miss.
• The Rockies are a much weaker offense away from Coors Field, and their road splits have led to plenty of strikeout opportunities for opposing pitchers.
• Sproat has the stuff to generate whiffs, and this matchup sets up well for him to attack hitters rather than pitch to contact.
•The low number is what stands out most here we’re only asking for 5 strikeouts, a mark several righties have already reached comfortably against Colorado.
• Between the matchup, strikeout prone opponent, and modest line, this feels like a strong spot for Sproat to get Over 4.5 Ks.
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THIS IS GOING TO BE HIS LEGACY GAME 🏆
NBA POTD #1 | (6/5) 🏀
Josh Hart "O" 8.5 Rebs (-119) | @PlayProphetX
"O" 13.5 RA (-120) | @bet365_us
"O" Triple Double (+2900) | @DraftKings#AlwaysKnicks
Absolutely love the lines that the books are giving us again after watching game 1. Hart does all the gritty work for the knicks as he hustles in for every rebound and makes the right play and doesn't give up even when he's having an off shooting night.
His recent game log shows very positive data:
• 11 rebounds vs May 8
• 9 rebounds vs May 10
• 9 rebounds vs May 23
• 11 rebounds vs May 25
• 15 rebounds vs Jun 3
The underlying rebounding profile continues to support the over:
• 12.0 rebound chances per game
• 7.4 rebounds per game
• Converts 61% of rebound chances
• Consistently crashes the glass from the wing position
What stands out most is Hart's elite rebounding involvement. Few guards are given the freedom to attack the glass the way he does, and with Victor Wembanyama on the other team he's going to need to keep crashing the boards when KAT/Robinson box him out.
For the assists part as a result of the rebounding he's been able to pass the ball up for easy assists or push the ball up himself and pass it to an open shooter. He's averaging the 2nd most passes on the team with 44 ish passes a game. He has a line of 4.5 where he's been able to clear it throughout the playoffs with much more potential assists.
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